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December 19, 2003

Finding the eBay of Social Capital

The blogosphere seems intent on finishing the year on a social note. I'm seeing plenty of posts on LinkedIn, ZeroDegrees, Spoke and continued tirades over what Ryze, Tribe and Friendster provide or don't. Yes it's an area I've read about and have followed closely all year. So in the closing moments I'll say I don't think any of these are real businesses. None of these are the eBbay of social capital. Some may have important functionalities that may add up to a business sometime in the future. However those that use $10 subscription rates for current functionality levels can forget it. They are all too expensive. It's cheaper to get in the Yellow Pages.

Early in the year I found myself writing about identity and sharing human profiles to thinking through circles of friends and the impact of actions on branding and behavior. I've explored almost every one of these software applications as they have come along. There is not yet one pieces of software from this genre that I get real enjoyment from. Each one I can learn the system and get it to do a small number of things. I can get new introductions, however the people that really count and my long time referees aren't on the system and I've given up trying to get them there. In the end my blog and strategies that I execute around it are a better time investment for networking to new connections.

Many of the social networking services provide useful functionalities (dating - matching is really separate to my comments here) however none of them provide the type of product / service that is going to be a big time winner. They are high maintenance for the most part and fail to integrate well into the day to day work that we do. Then there is trust too. Upload your outlook address book etc... They are all useful experiments and many of their features will be built into corporate systems. Yet, I believe the majority are barking up the wrong tree.

Here's some top of mind reasons why.

  • Mobility: These systems are static, don't integrate well with our cellphones and our SMS or what is to come in this arena. PDA's with Pocket Presence etc.
  • Presence: A few like Tribe provide some indication of presence. However have you ever been there where there are more than one or two people that you know online at the same time? Ecademy provides another method. None of these enable quick voice brokering. Although there is an Ecademy group that has experimented with that. IM already does this.
  • Voice: More than half of all knowledge is communicated verbally. These systems aren't adding in the additional cues. (If you want to see a great piece on this read Tom Coates). Skype uses both presence and Voice Quality to really change the game and the location --- integrated with the PC.
  • Conferencing Calling: 2004 will see the introduction of effective VoIP voice conferencing at effectively zero cost. This will have significant impact on knowledge sharing, networking. and getting to the right questions quickly.
  • Buddy Lists: IM is accelerating. IM is displacing e-mail. IM redefines addresses, personas, and access. Expect to see some RSS in with IM. Buddies want to sell a car... just blog it. All your buddies see it. Buddy broadcast. It's already done with SMS messaging.
  • Blogs: Is TypePad not in the Ryze social networking business? From what I've seen everyone there can have a profile / about me section in minutes. Feedster provides another example of networking around content. Just search the blogs for "social software".
  • Search: I think we are going to want to capture the searches that personally network us with people we want to connect with or who are also investigating an area. I'm also surprised that Google doesn't make it easy to link a search that returns a link to a blog to an IM opportunity. Makes even more sense in large corporate databases. Would that make it a decentralized Ask Jeeves?

    So where does that lead? Right bang on the doorstep of the phone system. It's where all the money is, and where the above is likely to be most disruptive. Vonage's new softphone like Skype is just another indicator.

  • December 16, 2003

    Skype Emoticons and Music

    Skyper wants their own Skype emoticons. I don't design emoticons. I have to have a few strategy suggestons that go beyond the brief below which suggests text based emoticons for the text based message portion of Skype.

    * add a new social dimension to the exchange
    * emoticons must leverage Skype's voice-centric advantage
    * create new functionality for responding to the "ringer"
    * encourage behaviors that encourage longer connections
    * appeal to all age groups

    Possiblilities? Simply enable the emoticon core set to be colored. I'm generally blue today, or I'm orange. Skype could stick to standard yellow or make life more interesting. Yeah, I went orange smile, yellow laugh. blue shades and purple wink.... There's plenty of color tests on the web. Skype would open up a whole new genre of web based psychology just by taking the step and then allowing users to create a program based on Luscher's Color Test.

    While on emoticons a sample of my Trillian master list suggests some emoticons are missing. eg a quick "on the phone", "caller detective"(for more information or profile), "conferencing". "I'm mobile" - as Skype goes portable.... Rather than answering the call it would be nice to have a quick emoticon text reply along with a possible redirect feature.

    Still I can't get too excited when what I really want is to play the music I'm listening to at a lower level to the person on the other end of the line when I answer. Or whenever one party or the other wants to pipe it into the conversation. Like talking in a room with music in the background. Seeing as I can already do this for myself (playing WinAmpat a low volume level and talking) it would be nice to tune in the other person. Playing music for each other then takes on a whole new perspective. It might stimulate some further new emoticons! Conections and potential conference calls will go up exponentially. Shame that is so hard for a phone company to do! Just another reason the phone system is old and tired.


    Are you a budding designer with a burning desire to get world-wide recognition for your work? Skype is offering you that chance with a challenge to create new emoticons (graphical expressions) for the Text Messaging portion of the world's fastest growing Internet telephony program. Skype is looking for submissions for 10 emoticons which will be used by millions of Skype consumers all around the world. We will chose among all entries received before January 15, 2004 (23:59.59 Central European Time) and the winner will be named on the Skype homepage and receive a Skype T-Shirt.
    Skype

    To see a list of Skyper desires for new features see the list at Public Mind. The obvious ones are all there. Not listed are SkypePages, and Caller Id solutions etc. Looking in the forums today I did see a note that the Skype Business Development team apart from being swamped is beginning to release some API details.

    December 15, 2003

    Good Interviews: The Future of Web Conferencing

    Robin Good is an important connection that I've made tracing orginally to postings on Skype. Combine with blogging, and a general curiosity between two parties and the layers get peeled away. So I was delighted to respond to his interview questions. I knew they would stimulate my thinking and when open minded often lead in directions I perhaps didn't expect.

    So I really appreciated Robin's comments and introduction to "The Future of Web Conferencing". I'd be uncomfortable dwelling on the interview here, I simply appreciate the opportunity to share for this part of blogging opens up new dialogues, finds new voices, and lends new ears. For those that have read the interview it may capture me in a way that I don't often talk or write to in my blog --- despite knowing the result would be blogged. I liked the conversation that ensued. I've seen little on the "blog" interview genre particularly when applied to other bloggers. As such an interview has the potential to put a number of blogs in play and may be worth further thought. So one lesson for me is to consider interviews as a blogging strategy in the new year.

    Robin's questions also had me thinking more:

  • The first was around running a second monitor as a "communicator screen". The gains to be made from this strategy are not only tangible in easing desktop workflow and notifications. There's also a set of intangibles that reflect the "desktop statement". Give managers a simple story to share and the dual screen works as effective method to introduce new work practices and programs. It provides more than a talking point enabling the introduction of "new" features without taking up current desktop space.

  • Second was beginning to consider the impact on costing practices of advanced knowledge solutions emerging at very low cost. Costing for IT projects that has been corporate centric will be assigned to the individual level. For the vendor that is a different sale. "Full Augmented Network" costing practices will be required.

    One thing I'm still looking for is a web conferencing solution with VoIP that works cross-platforms (ie Mac and Windows) has zero latency globally, enables 4-5 in an unmoderated discussion and can be learned in 15 seconds. It should be free or low cost.... etc.

  • December 10, 2003

    Seeing the Future New York Times

    Two pieces on strategic foresight and scenario planning. The first by a former colleague and mentor Jay Ogilvy who's touch clearly graces the pages of "What Strategists Can Learn from Sartre" and the second a contrast in the New York Times.


    .....Suddenly, humanity had a future — in the sense in which existentialists think of the future, as an open-ended, indeterminate field of untried possibilities. For existentialists, existence precedes essence. It’s not that no one or nothing has an essence. It’s just that essence, for free human beings, anyway, is achieved rather than prescribed. You become the results of the decisions you make. You don’t find yourself, as those suffering “identity crises” try to do. You make yourself by making decisions. You’re not just the result of the genes you inherited or the circumstances of your birth. Of course genes and family background make a difference, but what you choose to do with them is subject to existential freedom. ......

    A future filled with new possibilities presents a backdrop for planning that is very different from a future that is a reshuffling of the same old same old. Reshufflings should follow laws that allow for prediction according to rules that cover every possibility. A future filled with genuinely new possibilities might not even be describable using categories and metrics that cover what has occurred before. How could a 19th-century scientist anticipate, much less predict, prime time, venture capital, gigabits-per-second, butterfly ballots, fuel cells, genetic engineering, cellular telephony, and so on?

    Jay Ogilvy "Source"


    Jay's article provides a nice contrast with the short piece in the New York Times advocating broader use of Scenario techniques in government. Jay demonstrates the story-telling capability that must emerge though the process for scenarios to provide the infectious leadership tool that enables change and momentum. We need it in government and the descriptions in the NYT are good. The trick is scenarios is not the "how" but the context of "what". There are millions of scenarios... --- engaging people in a context where they can act is key to creating better futures.

    In this new era of uncertainty, not only must we must accept that simple forecasting is not going to be very useful to us, we must sharpen our skills of forethought. One way will be to augment traditional strategic planning with "scenario planning," a strategy that has long been a staple at the largest multinational corporations. Scenario planning involves the creation of alternative narratives about the future based on different decisions by many players" as each scenario progresses.

    As opposed to the classic strategic method of applying the past to the future — coming up with a single, likeliest story about how things will turn out — scenario planning is about applying the future to the present, creating a learning framework for decisions. The idea is not so much to predict the future as to consider the forces that will push the future along different paths, in order to help leaders recognize new possibilities, assess new threats and make decisions that reach much further into the future.
    Op-Ed Contributor: Seeing the Futures

    December 09, 2003

    More on Web Presence

    Following last nights web presence posting; a follow-up discussion


    Enterprise collaboration faces a number of challenges in the years to come. IM systems today are where e-mail was back in the late 1980's islands of common use separated by protocols, vendors, and the network itself. Test Center Lead Analyst Jon Udell and Senior Analyst P.J. Connolly debate whether Web services will be the catalyst for the transformation of collaboration, and how......
    InfoWorld: P.J. Connolly and Jon Udell

    December 08, 2003

    Wrinkles for Skype Hype

    Thoughts on Skype, Skype Problems, Skype Limitations, Skype Hype, Skype Product Development and Viral Marketing. A few things pushed me towards this post.

  • Continuing comments re the proprietary nature and performance
  • My son's Skype usage
  • Impact of potential Skype conferencing features
  • Continued "phone" perspective.

    Continuing Comments:
    Useful perspective was added by David Beckemeyer advocates taking a broader perspective. This market is changing quickly. There's a lot more in play than just POTS and calling granny. I'll take him up on his challenge to take a look at Free IP Call. So far I've not had much success with these types of services. I've not had the trouble that Robin writes about. I'm happy to try new things. The biggest pain is getting functional buddy lists. In organizations that can be forced. As an independent that just means run them all.


    I want to encourage you to think about employing a SIP-based solution, if not now, please keep it in the back of your mind.

    The advantage of SIP for all of us is that it is an interoperable standard, being embraced and adopted by many vendors. SIP is like the 802.11b of VoIP. It means we can (soon) buy phones at Bestbuy and like email, if we have a SIP address with one provider, we can still make calls to people on other providers.

    Skype, on the other hand, is like Compuserv. It is a proprietary closed system. It might even be that Skype today offers a better overall product experience in practice, so I can understand why people use it. SIP-based products and services have to compete........ (read it)
    Unbound Spiral Comment:


    There is no reason not to SIP. Just the functionality that most SIP phones are giving me are less that what I'm seeing over the horizon on my desktop. Instead concentrate for a moment on what my 15 year old son does.

    Gaming:
    He's recently become addicted to playing America's Army. This is not about whether it is good or not it is about the impact that it has. He's found that double teaming with his buddy using Skype increases their chances of success. So he's running the full game sound and listening to his buddy while in the action. I know now that they can't wait until Skype offers a conference capability. The pack mentality of young men on Skype is a scary thought. This won't just apply to America's Army. He plays "Warcraft" etc. The difference is he will be able to choose who is on his team. He's never managed to do that with Socom a PS2 Game.

    In a post on why "Skype Growth is Slowing" I noted that the always on number had slowed while downloads continue apace. Today some 3.5 million downloads.

    Imagine a little scenario for a moment. Skype announces a conferencing capability (see CNET) and provides the first 5 hours free. My son patches in his friends. They win games together. When his five free hours are up his buddy starts the hosting process. Ultimately they will either buy it themselves... or get Mum and Dad to buy it. If as expected this is less than the price of a new game for a year... they will be into it.

    In the theoretical world above, our kids become the first "visible society" members. By staying visible they get called into a game, added to the team. Having persistent identities easily shared within their circles closes the gap between individual PC pursuits and group online action. There is much more Skype could do with games if they would just open up their API. 3-D sound, player positioning etc. That's being promoted by Diamondware who has just won an award for this type of technology. I'm sure they understand player velocities and location. The release confirms tested by the military.

    Conferencing:
    This little scenario also illustrates the opportunity that exists in the business world. Many of us have adopted headsets for interviewing, and typing away at the PC. Using the Skype interface the conference addition could include conferences that your buddies are in and their topic when not private. There are some neat refinements possible to that solution which really impact on the virtual office. In the physical world I'm used to walking down the hall and we have some peripheral sense of where people are. That's not true in todays virtual world. The Diamondware publication above confirms this belief and opportunity. When conferences become visible then collaboration and project management is almost sure to be accelerated. Note this is different from chatrooms for it is difficult to monitor more than one at once. And the one you are monitoring you are participating in, idle or mute.

    Yesterday's post on Accidental Communities begins to illustrate the power of this peripheral vision in another way. To date it was only in the hands of the smartest site managers and network analysts. No more. Those connections can be pushed to personal desktops and become part of PKM - Personal Knowledge Management. This will enable the smart caller id systems and other RSS transport of content and connection information.

    Phone Thinking:
    On the phone we make "connections". With the exception of a few individuals no-one is really experienced in the multi-connect impact of conference calls that can be done on a whim. The phone paradigm and the IM paradigm is built round 1 to 1 and not many to many. Microsoft can offer an option tomorrow for their IM system. Select "text based" or "phone based", similarly so can the others. However, why add to the central server system to handle conference calling. Advantage Skype and P2P telephony, until MS and AOL adopt a similar approach. Could Passport become the Skype cloud?

    I should be able to do other things too. Like drag and drop invite buddies into conversations. See that other meeting rooms are occupied and see the topic. So I can text in... "when you talk about customer x" pull me in. I'm afraid that the telephone discussion only serves to make the course of action that Skype or its followers take even more disruptive. Let's make it a practical example. I'm using Spoke to ease my way into making a new business contact. Spoke locates my best connection and then waits until the "connector" has approved that they will do a voice introduction. Then when all of us are online together and available... the system initiates a call. This has major benefits. No e-mail requests. No connection, message waiting, an easy "yes lets extend this conversation. This can be extend further when an additional caller comes on line while 3-D sound helps the memory by placing them in a location. That is something I've never had on a phone call and am yet to see. This will make for a nice pictorial circle.

    Communicator Connect:
    Skype may not be the answer for this. However, get their conferencing capability running and enable the "ID Exchange" companies to plug in and they will create a new demand where there was none before. Before you know it social networking software may really have value. Ask yourself. Can Skype plug in Friendster, Tribe, Ryze, Spoke etc? See Skype Social Networks / Yellow Pages. Maybe a deal with Match?

    Viral Pricing:
    I'd like to close with an observation. Many may urge me to make a second post at this point. I won't. I want to suggest a viral aspect for the potential conference calling premium package. I found myself testing Glance the other day. They have a one day trial offer. In fact for me the first trial didn't go all that well. It was too slow. However I wrote them and suggested I was just the type of guy to test this product out. They generously extended the trial and I have had some better experiences with it since. However, I don't really have a regular use for it. So how should you charge to enable the viral aspect to take hold? You simply create a scale. A user that uses it infrequently, maybe two or three times a month remains free, unless the sessions are talking hours. Each time they use it they have the potential to infect others. I'm assuming the real target is "sales presentations, training etc". A new user that become a heavy user quickly will find themselves paying for the service. Make 20 presentation in two days and on the third you will be paying... Make 6 in the first month and then the 10th in the second month... and you start paying.

    What is the learning? Provide conferencing free for limited periods. Those that use it irregularly will infect others and get an even bigger feel good factor. It will make them even less likely to turn it off. Turn conferencing off or make them pay immediately and they simply won't. They have to become comfortable using it first. Watch out WebEx.

  • December 03, 2003

    Red Herring and CNET Updates on Skype

    There is a continued strong indication that Skype product development is going in the right direction! Two recent articles in CNET and Red Herring on Skype. I found the contrast in the two quotes below interesting. Underlying it is a reality that suggests SKYPE is actually growing a new market for communications, fulfilling an unmet and till now unarticulated need. Concurrently their conference calling capability when provided will change an industry.

    By contrast Vonage doesn't' believe that many people will be calling each other using PC's too soon. I wonder if he has worked with full-time live desktop messaging and conferencing applications on his desktop? Please hook this exec to a bluetooth earpiece and enable virtual watercooler conversations to gain visibility. Eg who's talking to who combined with subject etc.

    Skype's VoIP ambitions |CNET.com

    When will you have a gateway to the telephone network?
    We're working on it...It's something that's going to be much later on.

    When?
    The interesting thing is that in the feedback we get from users this is not the highest priority. They're more interested in conference calling and voice mail. People are much more comfortable with using the Internet for communications. People are being much more mature with the Internet. They say, "This is my primary way to communicate. The people that I'm calling I'm encouraging them to get on Skype." People are quite happy with that.

    There is plenty of anecdotal evidence already that Skype is enabling new conversations. For those early super users -- someone should be tracking "share of voice minutes" --- the PC must already own the majority of their communications time. However like e-mail much is one to one rather than many to many. A simple desktop conferencing program will enable with point n click something that currently can't be organized in a spontaneous fashion.

    RED HERRING | The Business of Technology

    John Rego, CFO of Vonage, does not think free calling gives Skype an advantage as long as Skype users can call only each other for free. I do not see it as any kind of wide-scale mechanism that will replace the phone system, he says

    .

    December 02, 2003

    The Computer Becomes the Phone.

    This article in Time examines the world in which the phone becomes a computer, and the computer becomes a phone."Eight years after its introduction, VOIP is having its moment. Indeed, 2004 is sure to be the year in which the technology hits prime time."the author Duff McDonald states.
    Say Hello to the Next Phone War

    [Smart Mobs]

    December 01, 2003

    Skype Doctor Calling

    Ross Mayfield blogs on Skype and Estonia. He must have saved a Windows machine in reserve! I too know the little country impact from days in NZ. Adoption is even higher when the solution is created there and the population begins to take on the world. I like his example of the doctor and wonder how many of these calls are being made straight into small offices there? I'm sure many people like bypassing the operator! We want the operator when we want a filter, however when it is our doctor we really don't want an operator at all. Similarly, putting the doctor in a call que is not an efficient use of their time. Giving friends better access to your desktop for messaging, voice, and voice mail makes a lot of sense. Let your computer play operator. The Estonians are finding out quickly how to do it. Those horrible "hello" messaging systems... and number of the extension dial in the name etc. are doomed!

    Before long there may be a market for Learning Journeys to Estonia! Skype now claims 3.3 million downloads.

    You may know that Skype, the P2P telephony platform that is all the rage in early adopter circles, is being developed in Estonia. You may also know that the little country that could is dear to my heart. But you might not know that in Estonia, Skype adoption has already crossed the chasm.

    When something big happens in a little country, word gets around fast. Even my father-in-law is using Skype to call us (instead of our Vonage line). Family doctors are using it to set appointments and communicate with patients. I don't have any country-by-country statistics (do you?), just personal anecdotes that regular people are using Skype in droves instead of calls. People are using it for more than saving money with call quality above standard (better than mobile) -- but because the mode of use differs it is gaining a different culture of use.

    [Ross Mayfield's Weblog]

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