Skype to Sell Out?
Skype $3 billion dollar sellout? Is there a real story here? Robert X. Cringely adds to the rumor mill by reporting that Skype was almost sold last week for $3 billion to Rupert Murdoch who just bought MySpace for an extraordinary sum. Was that the reason for Tim's exuberant chatter at AlwaysOn?
Some facts and figures in this piece are clearly wrong to Skype watchers. Some numbers, e.g. the value of the "customers," suggest a possible valuation method. I do agree with part of his conclusion that Skype should partner with an independent mobile carrier. (T-Mobile? in the US) Still his assumption: no IPO in Skype's future; with a buyout nearly certain. The creative speculation appears shrewd and informed. So the questions?
- Is Skype worth $3 billion? 30 billion?
- Does Skype's M&A rumors affect partner plans and willingness to commit?
- Which buyers are more acceptable to Skypers? To Skype's business ecosystem?
- The money from an acquisition goes to the current owners (founders, some employees, investors). If you buy Skype for billions, how much more money would you want to invest and where would you put your money? If you and raised billions where would you spend the cash you raised?
What do you think? Can you substantiate? Read his blog Skyped.
Google is a perfect example of this latter effect, entering the market years after Alta Vista and Excite. And the Google of VoIP looks like it might be Skype, which was almost sold last week to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. for $3 billion. PBS | I, Cringely . July 28, 2005 - Skyped
Others that are talking Skype sell stories...
Om Malik
Newswireless
Mark Evans
Loic on Murdoch
Andrew Hansen
Jim Courtney: A Skype Investment Primer
Robert Scoble
Carlos N Velez: "Let's start a new rumor... Google is in serious merger discussions with Skype. The new company, to be called GooSky...."
Carlo at TechDirt
Jeremy Wagstaff: "I suppose we should steel ourselves for the possibility that it doesn't last, at least in its present format."
Michael Parekh: It's all Rope-a-dope
OnoTech: "Wrong, wrong, wrong"
Comments
I found this story so full of mistatements that I actually wrote a rare blog post pointing out how Cringley does not understand Skype, its current financial players, its positioning and its potential at all. One has to stop thinking about conventional telephony. It's the applications, man, that will drive revenues!
Posted by: Jim Courtney | July 29, 2005 01:56 PM
What's wrong? Will Skype live or it selling is his death? What plans do Skype buyers have? Is it so simple to disable service that the whole world love? I don't know... and you? Can anybody explain me this things...
With regards Dmitriy
Posted by: Dmitriy Andreyev | July 29, 2005 08:51 PM
Interesting reading. However, Robert X. Cringely should know that Luxembourg is not in Switzerland!
Posted by: Peter Burch | July 30, 2005 12:35 AM
Microsoft is big because it kepts it's identity. Ohterwise it would be have grey or blue like all the rest... and the name would have been IBM-soft and we would all be using OS2/Warp.
I don't like to work on computer-systems or software systems which tell me (when i have remark to make in order to enhance the product and keep the customer, yes me, happy) that they cannot this and that and ble ble ble. That is why Dell Computers has taken soo much market-share from the others who could not do it, did not know how to do it, or even worse were too complacent to do it.
I like skype for the all the good reasons :
- they did something their way
- they did something everybody thought was hype, but it works.
- they are talking, communicating to the market, something that cannot be said of many big company in the world.
Posted by: Jan Geirnaert | July 31, 2005 02:09 AM
First of all it is funny to see how less this Cringley dude knows about Europe (like a lot of people from the US). Skype a Swiss company? Come on man, show that you did your homework!
For me personally it would be bad news if either Skype would be bought by a mobile operator or a landline operator. Why? Simple, Skype is a software company although they sometimes behave like a mobile operator. They should stay independent from Telco infrastructure and focus on promoting Skype as a strong platform to develop services/software on. Do you know any Telco operator that allows developers to write applications on an API? Not me!
I actually think this story is just a hoax or whatever.
Posted by: Hans Blaauw | August 1, 2005 06:41 AM