Whither Microsoft?
For a company that is not top of mind in product announcements these days, Microsoft is certainly getting a lot of attention from the blogosphere. So the questions become: where is Microsoft going on the offensive? and who are their competitors?
Where is Microsoft going on the offensive?
Launch of Windows Vista: we saw lots promotion at both CES and CeBit, yet Vista has yet to get anyone to define its killer feature(s). Having just received an evaluation copy I will be reporting on its implementation while upgrading a three year old PC (which has had its hardware upgraded to be Vista compatible). To add more to my perspective: both one of my sons and my daughter have purchased MacBooks over the past year; I no longer have to help them keep their PC's up to date due to viruses, worms, other security threats and long term congestive registry failure.
Launch of Office 2007: apparently they did a "soft" launch last week. You can take an online test drive here. Outlook 2003's substantial improvements was a prime driver for Office 2003 upgrades but what is the feature driver for Office 2007 uptake?
Real time communications: As discussed in more detail in a post last Thursday, Alec Saunders summarizes Microsoft's entry into the real time communications space as a gradual but consistent build up of components that will become key to a world where intelligence is at the endpoints while the network becomes simply a delivery pipe.
Back Office: Can Microsoft maintain its dominance in the enterprise market with all its server products? Will an Internet-based Web 2.0 world cut into this market? Or is its current enterprise installed base the Trojan horse for building up its real time communications play?
Having started out as a PocketPC PDA device with little or no communications capability, the resulting Windows Mobile is making headway into the wireless phone market. And this thrust got emphasized by today's story from MobilitySite.com that Dell has shipped its last Axim, the last of the pure Pocket PC PDA's of any significance. (At least it goes out as a market leader in many ways.) Definitely reinforces that Microsoft is never in the game to play; they are there to win. And Dell has realized they cannot be a mobile phone space player with all its demands for establishing carrier relationships. Alec sees Windows Mobile as another key component to Microsoft's real time communications play.
Who are Microsoft's competitors: Google? Cisco? Apple?
Paul Graham, Is Microsoft Dead?, seems to think it's Google and Apple. He also argues the broadband Internet and AJAX are contributors to Microsoft's "reduced relevance". In response Tony Hung points out that cash and time are on Microsoft's side. Just to enliven an otherwise quiet Easter weekend, more debate and discussion available via Techmeme. And Paul has responded:
So maybe I'd better explain exactly what I did mean. What I meant was not that Microsoft is suddenly going to stop making money, but that people at the leading edge of the software business no longer have to think about them. [my italics]
Andy Abramson has been saying for a while that it's Cisco (maybe even while working with Apple). Garrett Smith reinforces this perspective in a post today where he effectively positions Microsoft as taking advantage of its current position in the enterprise market and, building on Alec's theme, he states:
And to make things interesting there is an ever growing perception that software rules in enabling communications in offices and not hardware as traditionally believed ( If you have been sleeping for the last 15 years, software is where Microsoft kills the opposition!!). So it’s a huge challenge for Cisco to compete in this space against Microsoft.
And, of course, there's always the European Commission's Competition bureaucrats as well as the Free Software Foundation.
A very lively debate. Is Microsoft becoming "just another" player in the Web 2.0 world? Or can they become significantly relevant again? Your Comments?
Update: Rick Segal provides his usual insightful commentary from the perspective of a former Microsoft evangelist turned VC I first met RIck when he came down to Quarterdeck in this role many years ago; both his business acumen and sense of humo(u)r have become a very welcome addition to the Canadian technology business scene.
By the way, with Dell's abandonment of the PocketPC/Windows Mobile market where do I get to use applications such as SlingBox for Mobile and Skype for Mobile without having to buy a mobile phone handset? Even HP's iPAQ devices have become a line of phones.
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Comments
Jim, you mention all the issues well. I'm always a Microsoft believer just due to their ownership of the desktop real estate, OS, and Exchange directories. However, I believe Nortel has played the role of Judas here in helping MS. I really don't think MS could have competed in the real-time communications space seriously without the help of a telecom player such as Nortel. Thank you Nortel for aiding the downfall of you and your brothers.
Cisco will be an interesting foe for various reasons, including cash strength, network strengths (which can be a big hook for enterprises), distribution channels, and innovative software investments (ie Webex).
Don't count out Google on the web. I see the web getting to the point of crossing over the Windows platform in terms of strategic value (real estate) very soon. This release of Vista and Office is a good indication of how their significance has lessened. I am more reluctant to upgrade than ever (and I'm a very heavy Office user). I spend more time in my web browser than I do in Windows.
Good article.
Posted by: Rick | April 10, 2007 06:21 AM