Jemima Kiss's Guardian post, Rumoursville: Google sniffing round Skype, puts my rumor-logic-checker hat on.

Currently in favour around London's webbist community is the rumour that Google has been in negotiations to buy Skype, the web telephony firm, from eBay.

What would eBay sell? 50-80 million people using Skype each week, paying about $300 million per year, costing a bit less. Skype licenses the p2p technology but owns most of their codecs. Skype has hardware and distribution alliances in many markets. And Skype has top engineering talent in Estonia with satellites throughout Europe.

Google News search results with Skype mocked up by Jan Geirnaert in Top Rumour : will Google buy Skype ? on Skype-watch.com

Let's test the rumor's internal consistency.

First, why would eBay part with Skype?

• Sell: Meg Whitman's call for synergy, the "Power of Three," never had internal champions within eBay's marketplaces. It's taken eBay Markets a year to trust Skype enough to allow Skype-Me buttons on profiles, not even a full Level 1 on the Skype Journal Site Skypification Maturity Model. There is still no eBay VP of Skype@eBay to lead the skypification of eBay.

• Don't Sell: Skype is paying for itself at current marketing levels, so it's no longer a cash drain.

• Sell: Must Skype buy its way into the US? National advertising campaigns don't come cheap and Skype is unlikely to fund this internally.

• Don't Sell: eBay has a strategic interest in expanding from atoms to intangibles. Is eBay interested in service markets where people sell their time and talent to each other?

  • They own StumbleUpon (helps bring people together around topics),

  • StubHub (helps people sell events to each other),

  • invested in Meetup.com (helps bring those enthusiasts together in real life),

  • Skype (a mechanism for keeping those relationships fresh and delivering services).

Next, Why Would Google Be Interested? or Not?

• Google has many telecom interests.

  • Municipal wireless - learning how to wire cities
  • long distance fiber - buying up big pipes across oceans and continents
  • Google Talk - building chat and voice into widgets and mobile apps
  • Google Android SDK - a software platform so programmers can create custom phones
  • Google Mobile apps - new delivery channel for web services
  • TiSP - fiber, without the glass
  • Spectrum -
  • Directory assistance (1-800-GOOG-411)

• Skype would bring new operational competencies in codecs/fidelity, PSTN integration (In/Out), and wholesale/retail distribution.

• Skype brings an active international calling community, and a growing one in the US

• Skype would benefit from Google's scaling and operations capabilities, online marketing and promotion, nascent people search, and the opportunity to blend Skype into online assets

Last, who else might buy?

• VoIM rivals:

  • AOL - buying talent to infill after the huge layoffs. They may not be able to afford it.

  • Tencent - Expanding QQ out of China into world markets, buying technical expertise. Tencent may be five times more popular than Skype in China.

  • Yahoo! - Consolidating strength in Japan and other Asian markets, adding engineering talent to the Messenger teams

• Long shots:

• Adecco SA, Randstad, Manpower. Seeking to build realtime, online, labor markets.

• Microsoft. Serious Not Invented Here, don't you think?

Rumor score? 1 out of 5 nose wiggles.