Skype saturates PC markets?
In my last post I made the following guess (see below): there is almost a saturation of Skype users in rich countries, and this is the title of a paper of CNNMoney.com, "Skype Seeks New Revenue Source As PC Downloads Near Saturation." This was told by Manrique Brenes, Skype's director of hardware business development, to Dow Jones Newswires! Therefore he confirms my "Saturation Speculation"!
Focusing on the synergy between other kinds of hardware and Skype could bring some revenue, but in the short term this will, in my humble opinion, not be very spectacular.
I still believe they should find a way to attract bigger multinationals: this would definitely boost the Skype usage.
Comments
Even if it were true (which it is not), the "saturation" of Skype users in rich countries would be irrelevant. "Users" is a meaningless statistic. What counts is usage.
For example, for more than a year Skype usage, or "real users" has been growing faster in the USA than elsewhere... according to "The Borderless Communicator (http://glimfeather.com/borderless/). One contributing factor is the availability/affordability of broadband. Perhaps even more important is the fact that SkypeIN numbers are available in nearly every telephone exchange. But even with these advantages in the USA, Skype has barely scratched the surface, even if you only count "landlines". Then consider the potential new usage of Skype on mobile devices as broadband wireless develops.
Now if you want to make the point that Skype is making more progress in non-rich countries than other VOIP carriers, you win... only because the impact of carriers other than Skype is negligible, but please, your suggestion that Skype growth is anywhere near the point of saturation in rich countries makes no sense at all.
Posted by: Aaytch | January 13, 2008 04:51 AM
There is another plausible, and perhaps even more likely, explanation for the leveling off of Skype downloads. The poor quality of the software, difficulty installing, problems with video (color bars, frozen video in/out, missing video windows), audio (Skype hangs/crashes, Windows BSOD crashes), presence detection (don't even start...), and more. Add to that Skype's contemptuous disregard for their existing paying customers (the 0207 fiasco). Combined with the ridiculous, non-existent, so-called Skype "Support", which is driving users away in droves. It is all finally starting to catch up with them.
Posted by: J.A. Watson | January 15, 2008 06:24 AM
@Aaytch:
I made a guess with my "saturation" based on publicly available data.
Manrique Brenes is a Skype Director. He told the same, and he is NOT guessing, he has insider information.
@Jamie Watson:
You are exaggerating, only a minority of people experience problems, like a minority are having right now problems with their Windows Operating system or any other software.
Posted by: Jean Mercier | January 16, 2008 10:39 AM