Or "The Telcos are doing What?"!

Well, it seems like the telcos are finally recognizing the prediction of Alec Saunders' Voice 2.0 Manifesto. The meter is going off. The voice revenues are going to zero.

Voice will be free, as the Skypers contend, and the Stupid Network model implies. Short term, all you can eat models, like Vonage, will exist, but long term it’s clear that the metered model is dead. The point-to-point technology called VoIP neither requires, nor facilitates the metering of traffic. Metered access to mediated access networks, like the PSTN, will continue only so long as customers require access to those networks to talk.

Om Malik reports today, in a post Global Telcos Plotting a Skype Rival, on a research report issued by ThinkEquity analyst Anton Wahlman:

AT&T, in conjunction with some 10-15 incumbent telecom carriers — British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom and NTT among them — is plotting to launch a Skype competitor,

and goes on to say:

Much the same way as Skype-to-Skype calls are free, incumbents could use their platform to keep calls from each other’s network free. The plan could help them avoid the termination charges and still make money when the calls go off the network to, say, a rival’s phone service or wireless network. “We believe that they will have to use a common client and common software platform in order to make this work,” Wahlman said.

Om then talks about some key points of this proposed Skype killer, such as time frame and carrier technology, and discusses how competition from Skype has rendered voice to become free. But there is another aspect: the telcos are losing fixed-line customers rapidly. (I personally canceled one of my business lines yesterday.) Not only Skype and wireless services but also services such as T-Mobile @ Home, which could eliminate the need for a home phone line are contributing to this attrition.

But, for all this saber rattling, isn't there a much simpler solution that would get the telcos into the P2P voice space much faster, especially since the basic innovation is already in place (and probably protected under intellectual property registrations)? Maybe the telcos should simply license Skype's technology. Nah, but that would cut out the intellectual property and litigation lawyers' fees and investment bankers' commissions that would come from having new players in the P2P voice game. (And maybe even take away the need for research reports.)

For all its faults on the business and operations side, the Skype ecosystem's technology is simply too far advanced for anyone to play catch-up with any long term success. Look at aspects such as Skype's current research and development on voice and video technology (if you haven't installed Skype 3.8 for Windows, do it now) as well as the experience garnered in pioneering communications enhanced business processes by both Skype and its partners.

Yes, all the telcos' efforts are "much ado about nothing" -- especially when it comes to voice revenues. (Hat tip to William Shakespeare)

An afterthought: Alternate suggestion for Skype: license Skype infrastructure to the cablecos and really make the telcos squirm.

Update: Tom Keating thinks the entire thesis is "hogwash". And I have to agree with his follow-on comments.

As I told some fellow TMCers, this is utter hogwash and pure speculation. Skype hasn't been undercutting the incumbents landlines or their business revenue. People have been going to cellphones if anything, which has reduced revenue from traditional landlines. Why make a long-distance call from your landline when you have a free bucket of minutes on your cell phone?

Tags: Voice 2.0, Alec Saunders, Om Malik, Anton Wahlman, ThinkEquity, Skype, AT&T, British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom, NTT

Powered by Qumana