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July 22, 2008

Blackberry Bold with a Skype Client? Introducing Some Truth into the Rumor

Update: It appears that yesterday 3 made some forward looking product lineup announcements that included the launch of Skypephone 2 and Blackberry Bold. On reading some of the coverage I have to wonder if some reporters and/or bloggers got the two products erroneously "interlinked" and seemed to conclude with the rumor that is now spreading on the blogosphere and for which I have addressed some misconceptions about VoIP over wireless carriers below. Also I have to question the entire way in which PR on this was handled; normally I would expect co-announcements from Skype and iSkoot.

Blackberry Cool is floating a rumor that the U.K's 3 network,  the only carrier currently selling Skypephone - a hit in the youth market, will be selling the Blackberry Bold with a Skype client.

First problem, it is known that VoIP over 3G networks still has quality, robustness and latency issues that make them unsuitable for running a native Skype client. Can we ever convince the media that VoIP over any current wireless data protocol is a non-starter?

This issue was confirmed when Truphone, after months of researching a native VoIP client over 3G, recently launched their Truphone Anywhere service that allows you to make Truphone calls over a GSM/EDGE/3G network using the data channel for text messaging and call signaling while using the robust, scalable inherent voice channel for the voice conversation. As a result you have two wireless options for Truphone: (i) VoIP over WiFi or (ii) Truphone Anywhere over 3G (and, from personal experience, I can confirm it works on 2.5G/EDGE as well). I have had several occasions to make calls using Truphone over WiFi - on my evaluation Nokia N95 - resulting in low cost or free calls from WiFi access points, especially when in the U.S.where my Rogers roaming charges would be $0.95 per minute.

So let's stop all talk of having a full Skype VoIP client running over any 3G wireless service.

Continue reading "Blackberry Bold with a Skype Client? Introducing Some Truth into the Rumor" »

Catching Up: Skype's New COO Goes Public

Over the past couple of weeks, during which I have taken a vacation and then dealt with an internal network issue at my home office, there has been no holiday on news related to the IP Communications space. So this week I will offer a series of posts talking about communications from Skype's new executive team, about building strong partnerships in an IP-based communications space, about the role of API's and finally about our mobile-enabled world. Each of the players I reference will have a significant impact on how the world of IP-based communications and real time conversations will evolve. Let's, however, start with Skype.

Towards the end of June, Skype announced the appointment of Scott Durschlag as Chief Operating Officer, responsible for the day-to-day execution of Skype's offerings and programs. COO's are usually not in themselves corporate visionaries but latch on to a vision and ensure that it can be executed to bring a "delightful user experience" while building  a profitable business. RIM's COO for Blackberry, Don Morrison, is an excellent example here1. While RIM co-CEO Jim Balsille sets the business strategy and co-CEO Mike Lazardis builds technology strategy based on his early vision for wireless devices going back to 1992, Don is a seasoned telecom executive who is responsible for building and managing a customer-driven organization worldwide, including the distribution partnerships, carrier relationships, ISV programs and enterprise support programs that have contributed to RIM's ongoing success. (Full disclosure: Don and I are graduates of the same business school.) RIM also has a COO for Administration and Operations, Dennis Kavelman, responsible for the operations side of RIM's manufacturing and customer information infrastructure services. While critical to the success of RIM, neither of these COO's is in the prime spotlight when it comes to discussions about RIM but they are mission critical to making things happen. All this to set the expectations of the role that new Skype COO, Scott Durschlag, is expected to play in ensuring that Skype executes for success..

Scott was recently interviewed by Harold Wolinsky on what message he has for current customers and what got him excited enough to want to join Skype in this role:

Continue reading "Catching Up: Skype's New COO Goes Public" »

July 18, 2008

Skype's FY08-Q2 Results ... Generates a Significant Question

On Wednesday eBay released their quarterly financial results, including an update on Skype usage. This chart presents the trend lines over the past year.

The only other information that came out in the call:

  • Over 25% of all Skype-to-Skype calls involve video
  • Skype is "double-digit" profitable (along with PayPal)

Comments:

  • It is apparent that the MySpace agreement contributed to the accelerated growth in Q4-07.
  • For the first time, during this quarter, the daily growth volume itself has dropped off.
  • While Skype-to-Skype minutes tracked along with increased accounts in the previous two quarters, why have the growth of these minutes dropped significantly to 4% in a quarter where new account registrations rose by 9%? (And the Skype-to-Skype minutes growth rate itself dropped off significantly.)
  • This usage level is consistent with the fact that concurrent online users still has not passed 13 million at its daily peak, yet grew significantly from 10 to 12 million in the previous quarter.
  • U.S. revenue growth has definitely stalled; yet international continues to move forward.

But here is the big question:

Continue reading "Skype's FY08-Q2 Results ... Generates a Significant Question" »

July 17, 2008

A Bold Prediction... Blackberry Will Continue to Rule the Enteprise

I'll be iBold enough to say that, applying physics terminology so much appreciated by RIM's co-CEO, Blackberry Bold will reduce the half-life of the iPhone in the business and prosumer market by an order of magnitude.

Tuesday evening I attended RIM's annual shareholders meeting in Waterloo at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, initially funded by RIM co-CEO Mike Lazaradis. A full house in the lecture theatre, including many RIM managers, all the Waterloo Region residents who had invested in RIM and the usual assortment of analysts and media. Full disclosure; this was my eleventh RIM AGM - the last ten as a shareholder of a minute quantity. More importantly RIM has become one of the most highly capitalized companies in Canada, competing with the Royal Bank for highest market capitalization on the Toronto Stock Exchange. RIM is to the Canadian technology scene what Nokia is to Finland and Skype to Estonia. From numbers heard at the AGM about 7,000 of their close to 10,000 employees are Canadians.

I attend each of these meetings, not simply to catch up with some acquaintances who participate, but mainly to listen to co-CEO Mike Lazaradis' overview of the RIM's technology and platform development. He has a way to articulate the technology within the framework of the the end user experience, developer program requirements, five nines availability, battery life, carrier benefits and other factors that have lead to their success. Coming out of the presentation, which largely focused on the forthcoming Blackberry Bold, I learned about:

Continue reading "A Bold Prediction... Blackberry Will Continue to Rule the Enteprise" »

July 08, 2008

CxO's - Linchpins in Bringing Business to Technology

Since 1996 I have been involved in buying Dell laptops and desktop PC's, not only for my own use but also helping friends and non-profits acquire PC's for their personal and business needs. A constant throughout most of that period was that each of these PC's came with a digital media offering called Musicmatch. Not only an audio player, Musicmatch's client could also "rip" CD's and assist in managing your media library. In fact, I even bought a couple of upgrades to their premium service over the years. MusicMatch, Inc. was led by current SightSpeed CEO Peter Csathy. From his SightSpeed bio:

Csathy previously served as president and COO of Musicmatch, Inc., where he was responsible for driving the company's distribution and content strategies, managing strategic partnerships, and overseeing the company's business development, sales, legal and finance activities. Yahoo! acquired Musicmatch in 2004.

Aside from selling Musicmatch into what has become the Yahoo black hole of services at an opportune time when Apple's iPod and iTunes offerings were resetting the business model for music acquisition and playing, Peter developed a network of contacts, business relationship experience and trust at Dell such that coming back to Dell for a SightSpeed partnership with Dell Video Chat was probably "a natural" on both Dell's and SightSpeed's part. Getting technology to market is not simply about the technology; it's about developing trusted business partnerships and executing across the network. Terms and Conditions of this new agreement probably reflect on their previous business experience as much as on the boiler plate lawyers wanted to include. CxO's are hired not only for their management experience but also for the network of contacts they can bring to the table.

Continue reading "CxO's - Linchpins in Bringing Business to Technology" »

June 08, 2008

Will "Free" Remain a Key Feature of VoIP Services?

A little sanity moving into the blogosphere? Local blogging colleague Mark Evans1, in a post earlier today, "The Wonderful World of Web 2.0 Whining", comments on the demands for seven nines reliability and unlimited support from "free" services:

It's bad enough no one wants to pay for anything, but the expectations placed on free services to deliver 99.99999% reliability are astounding. Come on, what do you expect for nothing?

Still, kvetching about popular services such as Twitter, Skype or Facebook when they have technical hiccups has become a popular game. When it happens, everyone wants to get into the action by complaining, criticizing, attacking and pontificating. The best one recently was Webware's Rafe Needleman suggesting Twitter should close until its technical issues are resolved.

Ha!

For some more rational thought on the warped sense of free these days, check out broadstuff, who succinctly pointed out that:

"There is this weird idea in the air that if something is free to a user it is free to produce, and thus must still reach all those other norms we take for granted in paid-for services, like reliability, privacy etc."

Continue reading "Will "Free" Remain a Key Feature of VoIP Services?" »

June 06, 2008

Whither Mobivox?

Received an email this evening from Mobivox with the same text as the initial post in this linked forum thread. It probably explains why all the top Mobivox CxO executives have been leaving recently. (Check out the current management team; only one CxO in sight.)

Starting in July, because we’re going to be using more expensive networks to connect you to your contacts around the world, calls between Mobivox members will be charged at our regular low cost rates. You will still benefit from better service and big savings on your phone bill, while calls to your Skype buddies will remain totally free and unlimited.

In an age when the main driver of subscriber attraction and growth for a voice communications service is a minimum offering of free calling amongst users within a service, withdrawal of this feature can hardly be good news for Mobivox. Even my new Rogers Home Phone service has taken a cue from Skype and provides free calling to other Rogers Home Phone (and Rogers Wireless) customers across Canada. And the only free calls via Mobivox after July 1 will be those to Skype contacts.

I think Mobivox's statement says a couple of things about Skype:

  • There are no termination charges for calls to Skype contacts from any service. We learned this from the iSkoot Skypephone presentation at eComm 2008. And it's reinforced by the text of the Mobivox announcement. A key benefit and advantage of Skype's peer-to-peer architecture and its impact on a service provider's operating costs.
  • It reinforces the iSkoot architecture for making calls from mobile phones, whether to Skype contacts or via SkypeOut calls. (Also check out this post.)
  • Skype's "HD Voice" call quality is obviously a challenge for other services to meet and sets a performance standard for voice services going forward. (And, as for SkypeOut calls where one cannot have the full HD Voice quality due to audio bandwidth limitations of the PSTN, the percentage of my SkypeOut calls with unacceptable voice quality has declined significantly over the past several months.)

If Skype could get Skypephone (working with iSkoot in this case) and their Skype hardware partner offerings into enough carrier and distribution channels, Skype has some significant business potential. (I am one of the few, if not the only, Skype users in Canada using dual mode Skype-enabled cordless phone, namely, the Philips 841VOIP, accessing both my Rogers Home Phone service and a separate Skype account. Works quite well, thank you.)

Perhaps Mobivox's main attraction at this point will be its ability to make low cost calls worldwide from any of the over 5 billion landline and mobile phones worldwide. But with the legacy PSTN carriers, such as Rogers and Bell Canada in Canada, offering lower long distance rates - close to Mobivox rates with more reliability and user familiarity, Mobivox is going to lose its viral marketing energy and become a much tougher sell.

Update June 9: Alec Saunders: Mobivox criticized for new pricing.

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June 04, 2008

Multi-Party Conversations and Conferencing Services - There is a Difference

Over the past few months I have had reason to host, or participate in, voice calls involving more than two parties. Product demonstrations, daily Squawk Box sessions and weekly "broadcast" calls involving 200 or more participants have become part of my routine. But each is a different type of multi-party call.

Yesterday, along with several of my Contacts, I was involved in a test, initiated by Borderless Communicator's Hudson Barton, of several of these services:

  • Skype's "Conference Call": hosted through the Skype Windows/Mac/Linux client where a Skype user can host a Multi-Party call but use of the term "Conference" call is a misnomer. Free for Skype participants; SkypeOut charges apply to participants on the PSTN. Up to 25 participants
  • HiDef Conferencing: hosting business grade conference calls with a user management interface operated by the call's "moderator" or "host". Monthly subscription required to host; unlimited free access for Skype participants; toll charges may apply for participants calling in via the PSTN. Up to 500 participants
  • iotum Free Conference Call: again hosting a multi-party calls that can be managed by a "moderator" or "host" party. "Free" participation; however, participant responsible for any toll charges to reach Free Conference Call server, and
  • Skypecast: a Skype service for hosting public "voice chat" rooms where participants can discuss a topic of interest. Public access; free but only accessed as a Skype user; no PSTN participation. Up to 100 participants. Popular use: learning English at Kantalk.

I can see four types of multi-party.calls:

  • Ad hoc multi-party calls, such as what is misnamed Skype Conference Call. Informal, host can easily add/remove participants, but no other participant management features. All participants are active; no agenda (think the "UNconference" call)
  • Conference calls which are often scheduled, usually have an agenda and where participants are all active but can be managed by the host (and/or other designated participants).
  • Broadcast calls, such as training presentations, news and analyst conferences, large audience sales presentations, etc. where there is a call administrator and usually one or two active participants who will make a presentation to an audience of several hundred or even a thousand passive participants.
  • Public voice chats, such as Skypecasts where any Skype user can join provided they find the link (either by email or text chat invitation or from a directory of Skypecasts).

While all these types of calls use technology that merges the various voice streams to be heard by all participants, the user interface and degree of active participation are the key differentiators:

Continue reading "Multi-Party Conversations and Conferencing Services - There is a Difference" »

May 14, 2008

What's Next In IP Communications? Not This Play

Andy Abramson at VoIP Watch has attempted to respond to last week's two stories that created a lot of buzz:

Andy, in his post, What's Next In IP Communications? Here's An Idea To Look At, is simply that -- an idea that, in business practice, just won't happen.

Instead of simply being another voice play to battle Skype or the mobile operators, the WiMax companies and the cable operators, and heck, even Ma Telco may all may find that they may be better off looking in another direction.

That direction is real-time video communications bundled up along with other IP related services like voice and text, all in one neat little package.

Why video when selling voice to their already installed user base is already there for the cable guys?

Because it is different.

In essence video is the next level of real-time communications to be nurtured and embraced, not only because its ready now, but because it also gives the WiMax, Telco and cable players a very different value proposition to offer and lead off with.

Too many players, too many egos, too many "ifs" and too much agreement required. And video communications really has no proprietary technology beyond normal technology licensing. Rogers launched the first North American video calling plan last week with its Rogers Vision package (which can be bundled up with voice and text) along with its launch for support of the Nokia N95 8GB. It's about who has access to the customer base; who can handle the billing readily. (I could almost see another Vonage scenario where Sprint/Clearwire would have to go out and find a critical mass of customers, incurring huge marketing costs.)

Alec Saunders says, Me Different, Not Really:

No, to really really change the game would require a leap of imagination that I don’t think Clearwire / Sprint possesses. WiMax is symmetrical high speed. Imagine a pure peer sharing network instead. Something like the TerraNet system — Skype style p2p for communications, and bittorrent style p2p for content distribution. Mesh it so you don’t have to build out a massive infrastructure. Price the whole thing at a flat rate for access only, and sit back and watch the destruction of 125 years of legacy telecom.

Sorry, Andy ... it's not a play that's going to be executed. Just look at Novell's failed attempt to create a standard UNIX consortium back in the mid-90's. Somehow a virally adopted operating system called Linux got in the way -- and it did not need "big players" to sow the seeds. Yet today Linux (and Open Source software) has become one of IBM's key resources for many of its offerings. Think of Skype's technology and ecosystem as the "Linux" of the real time communications world.

Update: Jon Arnold has just piped in with his: Skype-O Killer... que'st que c'est... He starts off with:

I can't seem to face up to the facts,
I'm tense and nervous and I can't relax...

Recognize the lyrics? Of course you do. But if you don't, it's from Psycho Killer, an early tune from one of my fave bands, the Talking Heads.

Like the title of my post? Clever, huh? Starts making even more sense when you start with the lyrics (did you pick up that other subtle Heads innuendo?). Those first two lines say it all for me when it comes to this Skype-killer storyline that started early last week with Om Malik's post.

Sorry, Jon. ... As for SIP as the common denominator for the telcos to make a play, just keep in mind that Skype is one of the world's largest users of SIP -- for its SkypeIn and SkypeOut services. They understand the technology, the protocol and where it can play a role; they can turn up the "volume" when it's appropriate in a "real time conversation" market context. Just because the technology and protocols are there does not a business make. (Skype's GM for Audio and Video was involved in the early evolution of SIP during five years spent at Microsoft. He recalls what the dream was and what today's reality is for SIP.)

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May 10, 2008

Jonathan Christensen Keynote at eComm 2008: The Video

We have previously posted about Jonathan Christensen's presentation at eComm 2008; here and here. As well we have referenced the transcript here. This past week eComm 2008 producer Lee Dryburgh was able to make available videos of the presentation. If you want to learn about the evolution of VoIP and how the conditions were ripe for the successful launch of Skype in the fall of 2003 as well as a discussion of the seeds of mobile Skype, take 30 minutes to watch it.

The Standard Definition version is below while an HD version is also available for viewing.

For easy follow along we have reposted the accompanying slides: (Power Point version here).

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May 07, 2008

Chickens Coming Home to Roost ... the IP Communications Saga Continues

Om's post yesterday, Global Telcos Plotting a Skype Rival, has certainly set the blogging world abuzz. I thought it was "Much Ado About Nothing". But probably the most articulate post is Alec Saunders' Voice 2.0 Chickens are Roosting, where he sees his forecast of four years ago bearing fruition. Some quotes:

Here’s the rub. Today’s rich user directories are held at companies like Skype, Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace and the Internet. Applications, which are dependent on access to those directories, are being built to be dependent on not a telco network, but Skype, Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace and the Internet. ....

The biggest asset a telco has today, believe it or not, is their billing system and the billing relationship with their customers. They have become shop keepers who sell voice services.

Let’s posit for a second that they do plan a Skype competitor. To be effective they will have to recruit a user base and a developer community in pretty short order. They’ll have to show developers how they can make money with their platform. And they’ll have to deliver a platform that provides the quality today that competitors like Skype already do.

He then delivers his somewhat challenging prescription for the telcos; in summary:

  1. Deliver on a standards based solution
  2. Provide a way for applications that require centralized network assets to run effectively
  3. Partner with one or more social networks on an open directory solution.
  4. Leverage their billing expertise to help developer monetize applications.

He concludes with:

But what do I know? I only predicted that all of this would happen 4 years ago. The chickens are finally coming home to roost.

Read the entire post for more details.

Wednesday morning (May 7) Dan York will be guest host of SquawkBox where one of the topics for discussion will be the concept of a "telco-based Skype competitor". Other posts to consider as background:

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May 06, 2008

Much Ado About Nothing....

Or "The Telcos are doing What?"!

Well, it seems like the telcos are finally recognizing the prediction of Alec Saunders' Voice 2.0 Manifesto. The meter is going off. The voice revenues are going to zero.

Voice will be free, as the Skypers contend, and the Stupid Network model implies. Short term, all you can eat models, like Vonage, will exist, but long term it’s clear that the metered model is dead. The point-to-point technology called VoIP neither requires, nor facilitates the metering of traffic. Metered access to mediated access networks, like the PSTN, will continue only so long as customers require access to those networks to talk.

Om Malik reports today, in a post Global Telcos Plotting a Skype Rival, on a research report issued by ThinkEquity analyst Anton Wahlman:

AT&T, in conjunction with some 10-15 incumbent telecom carriers — British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom and NTT among them — is plotting to launch a Skype competitor,

and goes on to say:

Much the same way as Skype-to-Skype calls are free, incumbents could use their platform to keep calls from each other’s network free. The plan could help them avoid the termination charges and still make money when the calls go off the network to, say, a rival’s phone service or wireless network. “We believe that they will have to use a common client and common software platform in order to make this work,” Wahlman said.

Om then talks about some key points of this proposed Skype killer, such as time frame and carrier technology, and discusses how competition from Skype has rendered voice to become free. But there is another aspect: the telcos are losing fixed-line customers rapidly. (I personally canceled one of my business lines yesterday.) Not only Skype and wireless services but also services such as T-Mobile @ Home, which could eliminate the need for a home phone line are contributing to this attrition.

But, for all this saber rattling, isn't there a much simpler solution that would get the telcos into the P2P voice space much faster, especially since the basic innovation is already in place (and probably protected under intellectual property registrations)? Maybe the telcos should simply license Skype's technology. Nah, but that would cut out the intellectual property and litigation lawyers' fees and investment bankers' commissions that would come from having new players in the P2P voice game. (And maybe even take away the need for research reports.)

For all its faults on the business and operations side, the Skype ecosystem's technology is simply too far advanced for anyone to play catch-up with any long term success. Look at aspects such as Skype's current research and development on voice and video technology (if you haven't installed Skype 3.8 for Windows, do it now) as well as the experience garnered in pioneering communications enhanced business processes by both Skype and its partners.

Yes, all the telcos' efforts are "much ado about nothing" -- especially when it comes to voice revenues. (Hat tip to William Shakespeare)

An afterthought: Alternate suggestion for Skype: license Skype infrastructure to the cablecos and really make the telcos squirm.

Update: Tom Keating thinks the entire thesis is "hogwash". And I have to agree with his follow-on comments.

As I told some fellow TMCers, this is utter hogwash and pure speculation. Skype hasn't been undercutting the incumbents landlines or their business revenue. People have been going to cellphones if anything, which has reduced revenue from traditional landlines. Why make a long-distance call from your landline when you have a free bucket of minutes on your cell phone?

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May 02, 2008

The Canadian Wireless Internet Scene Gets Interesting

The Canadian wireless market provides a unique situation in that Rogers is the only GSM wireless service provider. From the smartphone side there are four potential suppliers:

  • Apple, with its iPhone which requires GSM
  • RIM, whose WiFi -enabled 8x20 Blackberries require GSM to be able to use the UMA/GAN feature
  • Nokia, who basically only builds GSM-compatible devices
  • iSkoot with their Skypephone which requires GSM

Last fall I posted about the picture as Rogers was seeing it, pointing out that it was not simply a case of supporting the iPhone but rather looking at the other smartphone vendors as well when considering how Rogers would react to the availability of the iPhone. In essence providing an "unlimited" data plan would only be viable if Rogers' other vendors also had similar opportunities for unlimited data plans. Several developments this week:

Continue reading "The Canadian Wireless Internet Scene Gets Interesting" »

April 30, 2008

eComm 2008 Panel: What Will Drive Wireless Innovation?

A panel discussion involving participants from an industry consultant, a mobile carrier, Google, Skype and Nokia.

Moderator: Brough Turner (NMS Communications)

Panelists: Martin Geddes (STL Partners), Stanley Chia (Vodafone), Sumit Agarwal (Google), Jonathan Christensen (Skype), Christopher Allen (iPhoneWebDev.com), Benoit Schillings (Trolltech/Nokia)

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April 22, 2008

Skype's New Calling Plans -- The Coverage

Yesterday's announcement of new international calling plans available from Skype probably set a record for generating press traffic about Skype. Certainly my "Skype" keyword feed in FeedDemon has been gone off the end. Most of the reports were simply rehashes of the original two press releases (Global and North America). But some bloggers' observations are worth mentioning.

Pat Phelan at Cubic Telecomm (MaxRoam) thinks these plans will seriously impact the phone card market:

This a serious blow to the phone card market and with the multicountry plans to launch prepaid Skype cards now starting to ramp up this could spell the end. ....

These packages are certainly going to make me re-examine my Skype usage, couple this with the excellent quality I have been getting on my 3Skypephone lately and its time for a package change on my Vodafone corporate account

Mark Evans thinks the sexier story is Skype's growth:

There’s lots of excitement today about Skype unveiling a new plan offering unlimited long-distance calls to 34 countries but the far more interesting story - at least from this corner’s perspective - is Skype’s strong growth, which has been chronically unreported.

Andy Abramson, at VoIP Watch gives his take:

Continue reading "Skype's New Calling Plans -- The Coverage" »

April 21, 2008

Skype CEO Josh Silverman -- Thoughts After the First Four Weeks.

Skype internal blogger Villu Arak today published an interview with Skype's new CEO, Josh Silverman. Josh has had four weeks, spent largely with the developer team in Tallinn, to dig into Skype's activities and to start to triage a picture of where Skype should be heading. Read Villu's complete interview but a few key statements:

Initial observations:

Where I can perhaps add value is to help us focus us on the "Vital Few" - the (very) few things we're going to commit to delivering with excellence; as opposed to the "Worthless Many" - the long list of very good ideas which, if we tried to tackle them all, would bring us to our knees. The hard part about prioritization isn't saying "no" to bad ideas, that's easy. It's saying "no" to the good ones in order to deliver on the truly essential and/or breakthrough projects that really drives focus through an organization.

Core interest of the Skype community at heart:

Besides keeping communication within the Skype cloud free, there are two things we need to deliver very well: incredible ease of use and world-class sound and video. Everything else wins us bonus points.

Skype's priorities in 2008 and beyond:

....this year we'll make video - including multiparty video - more prominent and, er, easier to use. But more generally, I talk about end-to-end ease of use. It goes far beyond making the green call button easier to find. We're looking at every aspect, every stage of the user journey. From when you download the client and make your first call, all the way through the range of products we have, from the desktop to mobile. We're going to focus on where the biggest pain-points are along that journey, in order to make the whole experience seamless and delightfully easy.

Existing things you'd like to fix:

At the top of my "now" agenda is this: radical ease of use. Skype still confuses some people, so we're digging even deeper to achieve step function change.

On developer partners:

Philosophically speaking, I do think we need to continue building a robust ecosystem and supporting the developer community as best we can. I'm taking a little time to understand where we are and what the next steps should be. Soon, I'll share more thoughts on this on the Skype Developer Zone blog.

And on the prospect of eBay selling Skype:

Skype is a strong, profitable business with 61% year-on-year revenue growth and 309 million registered users, with 33 million added in Q1 2008. eBay has just made a huge investment in Skype by removing the earn-out. We have new management in place, and with the earnout out of the way, we measure ourselves by our ability to delight our users. [SJ link added] That's our focus. That's our test.

We understand that Josh will make himself available for external interviews within the next few weeks, once he has had time to complete his review of Skype's entire business. There are lots of challenges in Josh's statements and lots of promise. As he stated at the end of one response: "But let me get through the first hundred days and let's take stock of our progress in the summer."

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April 17, 2008

Skype's Q1 Results Demonstrate Voice --> 0 But the Business Grows

Yesterday eBay announced their first quarter 2008 results, exceeding analyst expectations on both revenue and profit. As for the Skype business we see:

  • a 9% revenue increase quarter-to-quarter; 61% yr/yr.
  • over 360,000 new Skype accounts created daily
  • almost 20% increase in Skype-to-Skype minutes over the previous quarter (and 37% increase yr/yr)
  • small increases in SkypeOut minutes
  • probably a significant increase in U.S.-based user accounts

Two factors probably contributing to the Skype-to-Skype minutes increase would be (i) widespread adoption of the 3 Skypehone in those countries served by 3 and (ii) new account signups on MySpace. This was the first quarter where they were a factor during the full quarter. At his eComm 2008 presentation, new iSkoot CEO Mark Jacobstein could not give out exact numbers but he did say that Skypephone adoption has been beyond expectations and that Hutcheson accelerated launch of the Skypephone in 3's other eight markets once they saw the uptake response in the U.K.

Another number that is interesting is the daily signup rate: how many other Internet services get over a quarter million signups daily -- four-and-a-half years after the service launched?

And comparing Skype-to-Skype minutes growth to SkypeOut minutes growth is a clear demonstration of the race to zero revenue for "just plain voice" services. As stated in the Voice 2.0 Manifesto over two years ago, "the meter is off". Or, as Jonathan Christensen mentioned at his eComm 2008 keynote presentation, the march towards "the death of distance" continues.

Mentioned as Skype highlights by new eBay CEO John Donahoe:

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April 07, 2008

Skype For Business - Indications of New Directions

This afternoon I was directed to the March issue of the Skype Developer Program newsletter, which, in some ways, is probably the last newsletter for the current program. Two items stand out:

(Interim) head of SDP, Peeter P. "Wolli" Mõtsküla, admits that, despite over 50 million Skype Extras downloads, the Skype Extras program has not exactly been a revenue success story for Skype. It appears that the Partner program will be transitioning to come under the Skype for Business group in London. In this regard, Peeter has announced that as of April 1, Skype's share of a Partner's Extras revenue will drop to zero, at least to the end of 2008. He ends with "Whatever you make will be yours to keep -- with one exception: if you make our business customers happy, we'll keep them".

This is followed by an item by "Guest Writer", Shane McNulty of the Skype for Business group who talks about how, in spite of initially growing up with a consumer value proposition at its heart, Skype's customer base has seen the emergence of a "community of Small Businesses (SMB's) getting value from Skype".

Skype can track a segment of its Business Community by looking at those who subscribe to the Business Control Panel and download the Business Version of Skype (www.skype.com/business). This Business community contains a highly concentrated number of Skype customers that contribute disproportionately high levels of activity. In addition to this segment there is also a much larger community of business customers that are leveraging Skype for Business purposes. Through research Skype has discovered that approx 30% of Skype customers are business customers.

Further along Shane states:

In addition to Skype Products, Skype for Business is aware of the need for strategic partnerships with Hardware & Software Vendors to provide complete solutions. Skype will continue to develop relationships with those partners that provide additional benefits to Skype customers. With these partnerships we can offer even richer solutions that reach out to more potential customers and satisfy the different set of needs that businesses have. If you have a solution that would benefit Skype Business customers then lets hear it, we want your valued input.

The Skype for Business team is integrating into the competitive landscape in the SMB space and, therefore, understands the need to articulate the Business proposition offered to both existing and potential customers to increase the breadth of our business customer base and increase the satisfaction of those that have already seen the light. So keep your eyes open for more to come from Skype for Business.

Reading between the lines it would appear:

  • The Skype API's will continue to evolve and be supported. But a new roadmap awaits the direction of the Skype for Business team.
  • Skype is placing its hardware and software Vendor Partner relationships with the group that can own the relationship from a business perspective, instead of simply a technology partnership.

One of the pleasures of my past two years writing for Skype Journal has been the opportunity to meet many of Skype's Vendor Partners. These entrepreneurs see the potential for Skype and want it badly to succeed. Many have invested six and seven figure numbers in the development of both hardware and software platforms embedding Skype. They envision the potential for both the technology and its impact on business processes.

Having been on the management team of a corporate restructuring many years ago I am seeing many parallels at Skype. New management needs to get a full picture of the business environment, instill business disciplines - including marketing and business development discipline - and execute on a new plan. These newsletter posts would appear to confirm that each segment of Skype itself is coming under review and looking for the business justification.

Skype is a very high profile case of excellent technology -- with ongoing improvements demonstrated by High Quality Video and many aspects of the Skype 3.8 beta released last week -- but business operations that need the application of Business 101 basics. I am encouraged by the appointment of a CEO who is not a telecomm executive (don't need experience from failing former monopolies) and his experience and success with other startups. [Disclosure: I have never met Josh nor spoken with him but have used Evite.com many times.] It is the hope of all Skype's fans - consumers, business users and business partners -- that Josh can find the formula for taking Skype to the next level and, at the same time, result in a "delightful user experience". That would also delight the many business partners who have invested their time, effort and money in becoming part of the Skype ecosystem.

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Another GigaOm Post: FCC Handcuffs US Mobile

Last week, following FCC Chair Kevin Martin's announcement that he was recommending dismissal of Skype's petition requesting application of Carterphone principals to existing wireless networks, I received an invitation from Om Malik to author a guest post for his widely read GigaOm on its impact.

In my humble opinion this decision builds on my ongoing feeling that, if there is a way for government to shoot itself in the foot, it will. There is an ongoing debate over H1-B visas, so Microsoft decides to set up a research facility in Vancouver, B.C. to be able to hire a sufficient number of skilled personnel needed to support its various activities. I have yet to be convinced that the current limits on H1-B visas have created one new job in the U.S. Have these limits impacted Microsoft's ability to get Vista out "right"?

Richard Florida, who recently moved from the U.S. to take up an appointment in the business school at my alma mater (U. Toronto), writes about the global competition for talent in The Flight of the Creative Class. His three T's of economic development - technology, talent and tolerance - lead to his concern for long-term prosperity, development and innovation in the U.S. From the book's flap:

But the United States still boasts one of the most diverse and creative citizenries in the world, and Florida points out that, if it can discover solutions to address rising inequality, the global dissemination of talent and the inherent tensions of the creative age, it will once again lead the pack. If only the rest of the world doesn't discover those solutions first....

Once again the U.S. is shooting itself in the foot. An outsider's perspective from a Canadian who has not only lived near, but also lived in, the U.S. and relied on U.S. partnerships for most of his career. And you'll find some suggestions for waging non-violent guerilla warfare (of the peaceful, totally legal kind) to raise awareness of the issue amongst a broader public beyond the "geek" world.

Thanks to the team at GigaOm for the opportunity.

Hudson Barton at Borderless Communicator: Skype's unnecessary FCC petition for wireless neutrality is now dead.

Previous GigaOm post: Skype On The Go.

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April 04, 2008

Borderless Communicator Goes Contrarian Re Google and Skype

Hudson Barton, who tracks Skype usage over at Borderless Communicator, feels that it would not be in eBay's strategic interest to sell off Skype (whether to Google or any other entity). He feels that Skype is victim of "wag the dog" sellout rumors on April Fool's Day:

It is NOT in eBay's interest to give Google or Microsoft or Yahoo another way to attack its core properties in ecommerce (eBay and PayPal). As a part of eBay's portfolio of assets, Skype is a great bargaining chip to keep its competitors (and partners) honest. eBay would be foolish to sell it to one of them at any price, even the $5-6 billion that some now think it might be worth.

The fact is that Skype is growing fast, is profitable, and is forming partnerships with all the major players in the telephony market. Most importantly, 3 years after eBay bought it Skype's position is ever stronger, and in some respects is now even dominant. The major telecoms and cable companies are truly worried, and well they should be.

He goes on to point out that "Companies that we once thought were in different industries are now playing regularly on each other's turf" and concludes with:

I see them as all in the same business; the information business or what is becoming increasingly known as the IP business. This industry's intense competition and/or cooperation among its players demonstrate clearly how dynamic and undefined the playing field is. Seen in the broader context of IP (information's common carrier), eBay is striving with all sorts of competitors (services, software, and even hardware). We should not be surprised to see eBay invest even more in IP, even if might appear to the blogosphere that its diversifications are unrelated to its ecommerce businesses. Divestiture of Skype at the present time would be foolhardy, and I'll state right here that it's not going to happen.

Read the entire post. I agree with Hudson's perspective. eBay needs to recover its outstanding investment in Skype. Josh needs to work on turning Skype from simply an innovator of excellent technology into a real communications business operation with fully operational support, marketing and business partnerships that are not only strategically sound but sustainable and strong. Only then will it build up a valuation such that eBay would start to look at buyers. My take on the current rumors continues to be: Google Rumors Re Skype: Maybe Josh Found the Agreement.

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April 02, 2008

Google Rumors Re Skype: Maybe Josh Found the Agreement

TechCrunch today posted a story speculating on some new arrangement between Google and Skype, even going so far as to suggest that Google may acquire Skype.

Having been involved at a senior executive level in the re-org of a NASDAQ-listed company several years ago, I would suspect a new CEO should be looking at any contracts, agreements, press releases and other commitments. etc. sitting around in filing cabinet drawers, etc.

So here's an outstanding, previously announced agreement that maybe Josh has uncovered with the result that Skype, eBay and Google are finally looking to execute on it.

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iSkoot - Providing Carrier Friendly Access for Skype Calls.

In a simplistic world, it is easy to view the mobile smartphone as the PC in your pocket when the truth is the mobile smartphone is not the PC in your pocket. The path to low cost or free mobile calling to our friends and business colleagues worldwide is not necessarily through a replication of what works on an PC.

Meanwhile carriers have been using VoIP in their backend, transparently to the caller and called party, for about a decade in order to lower their cost of carrying long distance calls between legacy PSTN phones - both landline and wireless. Adoption of wireless VoIP at the end points with the five nines (99.999%) reliability, call quality and scalability of the current circuit-switched TDM wireless networks requires significant infrastructure advances and developments not only at the device level but also at the network level. The wireless VoIP goal remains fraught with obstacles and barriers that are inhibiting its deployment:

  • Mobile devices do not have the internal resources of a desktop or laptop PC. Battery life, memory and CPU speeds are all too underperforming at this time to be able to provide a consumer friendly, high quality service. Even the ability to multi-task with multiple applications becomes an issue.
  • Robust, scalable network connections are an issue. Current carrier backhaul capacity, especially in North America, is insufficient to support a scalable service at the level required for the demands VoIP would place on data transmission.
  • Call quality issues, especially inherent latency and availability of open sockets, still do not make for a consistent call quality.
  • Inherent codecs and other support at both the network and device level within the wireless TDM infrastructure address otherwise device resource hogging issues such as echo cancellation and error correction.
  • And, most importantly, it does not provide a carrier-friendly business model. Filling the data pipe while attempting to reduce the billable "minutes of use" (MOU) is not appealing to a carrier executive who's responsible for increasing average revenue per user (ARPU).

Continue reading "iSkoot - Providing Carrier Friendly Access for Skype Calls." »

March 31, 2008

What VoIP on Mobile Can Learn from SS7

Many pundits in the VoIP world have been fixated into thinking that what works on resource-rich PC's and the broadband Internet should "just work" on mobile devices in a wireless communications world. But in practice it boils down to looking at the mobile communications infrastructure currently available and optimizing the use of resources at hand. And we can often find analogies from the past to guide us towards what makes sense for the future.

SS7 (Signaling System 7) is the inherent protocol for managing legacy PSTN voice services such as call forwarding, voice mail, call transfer and three way calling. eComm 2008 producer Lee Dryburgh was a co-author of the bible for SS7 implementation and has built a business around SS7 development. In Lee's interview with Telco 2.0 Chief Analyst Martin Geddes discussing The Future of Telecoms and Broadband prior to the recent eComm 2008 event, Martin points out that:

  • The current mobile voice channel used in mobile telephony is quite robust, reliable, scalable and does its job "real well".
  • Trying to deploy VoIP via a client on a mobile platform using 2G or even 3G infrastructure is throwing a lot of technology at a problem that does not exist.
  • Using the Internet as a signaling system for handling what it does best - presence data, text chat, profile information, location information and setting up a phone call - but leaving the voice conversation itself to be carried on the robust, reliable, scalable and proven TDM voice channel - which "does constant bit rate voice, real well" - is really the optimum solution for the foreseeable future.

Martin raises the analogy of Netflix using the Internet as a signaling system to establish and manage a movie rental transaction and the postal system as the bearer. (A similar analogy could be used for Amazon and its system for ordering and distributing books.).

To quote from the interview - retranscribed and with editor's bold:

[Lee]: Ingeniously Martin has been thinking of the Internet as a means of signaling and coordination rather than always also the best means of delivery. Martin also steps into heretic waters by knocking the fixation with VoIP as a means for moving voice:

[Martin]: Netflix is using the Internet as a signaling mechanism and the postal service as a bearer. And the postal service is a very efficient way of transferring tens or hundreds of gigabytes worth of data....the important lesson is that when you take this to where the cash is - the money is in voice - is that there has been this fixation with voice over IP for a number of years and actually, maybe, and this is heresy, but maybe the good old-fashion phone system is really good at transferring voice. Hey - time division multiplexing does constant bit rate voice real well! So you have to throw an awful lot of [VoIP] technology at a problem [voice quality/delivery] that does not exist [and] to try and persuade anyone to move over to voice over IP. So it is only by understanding the full context and capabilities of each of these systems that you start to think [that], hey, actually the Internet is good at allowing new forms of signaling to evolve faster than what SS7 or whatever may have allowed...so why don't we focus on enabling the IP part to do what it does well which is how do we enable the rendezvous' in front of this phone call, how do we return signals and presence data and the little picture of where I am at, location information to help people make phone calls at the right time...stop worrying about trying to do voice over IP until the technology is super duper mature - until we can not possibly afford to maintain two networks which is quite a long way away still and let the phone network do what it does well which is phone calls.

[Lee] So, for 2008, you're promoting TDM! [Martin concurs]

Sounds like iSkoot, IM+ for Skype and Mobivox, along with 3's Skypephone service, may be on to something here. I can only hope that VoIP Supply's new blog, Mobile VoIP Review, can keep issues such as this and the backhaul limitations in perspective such as not to raise expectations too high until we have the required infrastructure for full mobile VoIP in three to five years.

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March 30, 2008

Om's Lessons...

Om Malik's heart attack three months ago came as a shock to many of my colleagues in the IP communications blogger space. Since then I have suddenly lost two friends who appeared to be in good health -- one due to a brain aneurysm and the other due to failure to consult a physician when adverse symptoms appeared. About six years ago modern imaging technologies found within me a condition which often is a "silent killer". Fortunately surgery has repaired this condition and I now live in gratitude for every day I am here. And I am fortunate enough to have a son who is doing a cardiology fellowship along with leading medical imaging research projects. So I hear many other stories about the fragility of our individual cardiovascular systems and the abuse they have to take due to neglect.

Friday Om posted an update, What The Past Three Months Have Taught Me, along with an articulation of the many lessons he has learned during his recovery (and my network says he still is not back up to full speed). His lessons:

  • Simplicity through Elimination - this should really be a key theme of, and direction for, many of our technologies today. Enough said.
  • Empower to Power Up: Delegation is the secret. When I did my guest GigaOm guest post in January, working with his Managing Editor, I came away realizing that Om has nothing to worry about - with the team he has the GigaOm brand will survive any disruptions caused by a sudden turn of events, such as Om's heart attack. If there is one truth about management it is in Om's statement:

I think one of the biggest problems I had as a first-time entrepreneur was an inability to let go; I was always second-guessing every decision not made by myself and was obsessed with minutiae. Three months on, having seen the Giga Gang at work, I realized what a mistake that was. You empower people, and in turn they power you to do good things. Now I am finding more time to focus on writing, reporting and spending time on projects like our upcoming conference, Structure 08.

A final thought: Some may call me a Skype cheerleader. But guess what ... cheerleading, when it's earned, is a lot less stressful on your health than constant fault finding and complaining. And when criticism is deserved, helpful constructive criticism is the only response. I do Skype Journal gigs because it's fun, because there are some great people in this industry and because, hopefully, it will help someone, somewhere make a key communication that changes his/her life for the better. And it's a proven fact that helping others brings healthful rewards to the givers.

Keep writing up those lessons, Om. And, as Om suggests, get a cardiac check-up regularly.

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March 22, 2008

Jonathan Christensen Provides More Skype Insight at VON.x Panel

A VON.x General Session on Real-Time Social Communications this past Tuesday afternoon turned largely into a discussion of the impact of video on social communications. With panelists such as Robert Scoble (now with FastCompnay.tv), Brad Hunstable (founder of Ustream.tv), Ramu Sunkara (CEO of Qik.com) and Loic LeMeur (CEO of Seesmic) effectively representing broadcast streaming video, Skype's Jonathan Christensen (3rd from right) was the lone representative with the perspective of one-to-one video conversations. Jeff Pulver, right, was the session moderator.

But within this milieu Jonathan was able to make some interesting points:

  • While Oprah had been using Skype High Quality Video for two sessions of her weekly "A New Earth" classes, for the first time she used it for about five minutes this past Monday during her regular late afternoon show to promote that evening's third session.
  • 30% of all Skype-to-Skype calls include use of video.

Continue reading "Jonathan Christensen Provides More Skype Insight at VON.x Panel" »

March 20, 2008

eComm 2008 - The Coverage

It's now five days after the completion of eComm 2008 and, while I have not put up much coverage to date, I wanted to provide a brief summary and references to several other bloggers who have covered it in various levels of detail.


Photo courtesy James Duncan Davidson

Take-aways:

  • This was a conference about voice enabling our social networks, our work activities, our personal lives and how we could potentially communicate more effectively going forward. Lee Dryburgh gave it the theme "The Trillion Dollar Industry Rethink" but with few exceptions, the carriers were not there is any significant numbers. They missed a huge opportunity to learn about where they can add value to their business going forward.
  • It's not about the next great new voice application; it's about voice enabling many of our daily activities and business processes to make them more effective, more productive and more transparent. Getting life-critical information to the hospital while a patient is still in transit in an ambulance; replacing "manual" or redundant business processes where managers are continuously challenged to have even a basic degree of motivation for their team members (would you like to become a "password reset administrator"?) are just two examples where communications enhancement makes our lives more frictionless.
  • Skype is becoming an element in any communications platform architecture that requires full global connectivity. While not emphasizing Skype or giving it any pre-eminence, it was "just there" (along with SIP) in several presentations as one prospective channel for voice communications that needed to be accessible at some point in a process.
  • Innovation persists - from customized hardware platforms (even at the handset or communications board level) to finding new ways to access and deliver via the legacy telephone handset - human creativity and ingenuity are still at work. One of the most interesting presentations was Brian Capouch's description, called "Twelve Volt Telephony" where he talked about his rural wireless network, including equipment bought over eBay, initially installed to provide security monitoring for his seven abandoned farm houses but also resulting in bringing the Internet into a rural community with a small customer base. At the other extreme we have IfByPhone offering means to access web-based services from the 5 billion legacy handset installed base.

With sessions running from 9 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. it was intense, covering a wide ranges of topics from currently available services to how the communications world can evolve over the next ten to twenty years. Not only practical solutions but also some perspective on sociological, social networking and even anthropological aspects. But Jon Arnold sums up Lee's dilemma in organizing this conference:

If eComm is IP, many of the more established telecom/IP conferences seem very PSTN by comparison - they're complex, expensive to run, less flexible, more mainstream, etc. This can be a dangerous analogy, but that's what strikes me about what's happening here. eComm is a one-track show - no exhibitors, and just one room where it all happens. Simple, very open and collaborative. Lee has been adapting the format on the fly, and I can say this first hand. He's been nice enough to give my son, Max, a 2 minute speaking opportunity for later today. Totally out of the blue. Max is sitting next to me cooking up a short presentation right now, and he'll be up on stage in about an hour.

I could go on, but you get the idea. There's a lot of potential ahead for eComm, and if they can figure out how to make this conference of interest to those who matter the most - the carriers - then Lee could have a real business on his hands. Right now we're among friends, preaching to the converted, so the trick will be taking it to the next concentric circle outside the core.

Here are some blog posts with more detailed coverage.

And finally, kudos to Lee Dryburgh, who in five months took his concept from a dream to a reality. Lee knew there was a critical community out there interested in propagating the message about Voice 2.0 and its implementation. He managed to bring that community back together out of the ashes of the former eTel conference.

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March 01, 2008

Are bad times good for Skype?

Economists say much of the world is facing an economic downturn. We've already seen layoffs at Yahoo! and other big companies, financial markets unstable, oil going through the roof, housing markets shifting.

Startup growth is often independent of economic cycles, especially when you enter a market. For example, Skype's growth depends on broadband growth and broadband growth looks promising in the US.

Skype is now large enough (it will collect a half-billion dollars a few pence at a time this year) that regional economic swings affect its customers.

Scary stuff.

So, Are Bad Times Good For Skype?

I'd say Yes.

And it's not just cost savings.

We change our behavior when we think about tough economies or personal financial risk. Some freeze and close down. Most pay attention and respond to the challenge.

In bad times we help our friends.

We need our friends.

Even our onlife friends.

Laid off by Yahoo!? Update your facebook account, your phone and email address books, your blog, your LinkedIn profile, your Skype buddy list. Refresh those connections with chats and blog comments and pokes and video messages.

In bad times we fly to social capital.

That's how we learn survival skills, discover new jobs, and earn social currency - reputation, debts of honor - that help us in the worst of the bad times.

"Joining and participating in one group cuts in half your odds of dying next year." -- Robert Putnam

Skype and other social media help.

Skype provides visibility into your social network. Skype could provide a lot more: sort/filter by last contact, sort/filter by how much/often/long you talk, reveal second-order relationships (clusters of friends who know each other).

Skype provides modes that fit the intimacy of each relationship. I'm a text chat friend to most, a voice chat friend to a few, and a video friend to my close friends and family.

Skype provides a history of each relationship. You can read your prior chats, see your phone logs, the better to continue conversations.  

Robert D. Putnam's Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (2000) warned of a plummeting U.S. social capital.

  • Every ten minutes of commuting reduces all forms of social capital by 10%
  • Attending Club Meetings: 58% drop over the last 25 years
  • Family dinners: 43% drop drop over the last 25 years
  • Having friends over: 35% drop over the last 25 years

I think a lot of those impulses are showing up online. In blogs, social networks, wikis, and, of course, Skype.

February 29, 2008

Skype Pro For North America: A Reprise

To repeat: Skype Pro for North America consolidates Skype Unlimited North America and other services - same cost, extra benefits

One of the challenges for Skype's new CEO will be to position marketing, especially marketing communications, as a strategic tool for effectively communicating changes and transitions at Skype. In December Skype Journal came out with the story "Skype Pro Replaces Skype Unlimited North America Plan". But it seems that the message still needs fuller communication within Skype's own website as I have now encountered a couple of situations where this change was not readily understood.

To go over the history:

Continue reading "Skype Pro For North America: A Reprise" »

February 26, 2008

eComm's Creative Destruction Tripled

Lee and I coined the slogan "The Trillion Dollar Rethink" for the Emerging Communications Conference to capture the magnitude of the changes in world communication.

It turns out a trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000) is only what the United States spends on telecom. Worldwide the number is really three times that. The 100 billion minutes people talked Skype-to-Skype kept money from the pockets of telephone carriers into the hands of consumers.

We're in transition to a post-telephone era.

  New modes and new media.

   Post-numeric addressing.

    Embedding of access into everyday objects.

     Immersion of talk into onlife.

      Mediated labor market arbitrage.

       Sensory fidelity never imagined when copper was laid.

eComm2008 assembles mindblowing visionaries and entrepreneurial cutthroats, telco rebels and minute-stealing traffickers, frontier architects and mad scientists, all in service to this profound change of our societies, our economies, our work, and our very lives.

You don't have to believe in change.

Just survive it.

If you're smart and lucky, maybe you can lead the change.

What's your piece of the $3 trillion pie?

February 25, 2008

eBay Appoints Shopping.com's Josh Silverman as New Skype CEO

While doing a broad search through an agency for its new CEO, eBay went internally to announce this morning the appointment of shopping.com CEO Josh Silverman as Skype's new CEO effective in four weeks (March 24). From the eBay press release:

Silverman, currently CEO of Shopping.com, an eBay company, brings more than nine years of experience in running hyper-growth global consumer Internet companies. Silverman will join Skype on March 24, 2008 and report directly to John Donahoe, President and CEO-elect of eBay Inc. Michael van Swaaij, who was appointed interim CEO in October 2007, will stay actively involved with Skype.

Josh is an eBay veteran, having served, prior to his Shopping.com role, as General Manager for Marketplaats.nl and been involved with building eBay's classifieds business in Europe. Prior to joining eBay in 2003, he was a co-Founder and CEO of Evite, a social event planning service that I have used several times successfully, most recently for my high school's 50th anniversary reunion.

Josh does get blogging; He's already put up his first post:

So what can you expect from me? That I’m serious about wanting to build the greatest products — and the greatest company — on Earth. That doing so means listening well, being willing to think different and take risks. And in everything we do, one thing is certain: we’ll always have the best interests of the Skype community at heart.

I’m the new guy, and have a lot to learn. To really understand Skype’s cultural and technological DNA, my number one priority is to do a lot of listening and learning. With my wife and kids about to begin their adventure in Estonia as well, I have all the support I could ever need. I want to know everything about the technology, the team and the community. And I hope to share some of my observations on this very blog and see what you think, too.

So, with their business headquarters having been in London, but the primary development team in Estonia, the question arises as to why he is planning a move to Estonia? Is this a precursor to moving out of that expensive London real estate? Update: GigaOm reports that Josh intends to place himself temporarily in Tallinn where he can get a hands-on assessment of the technology team and direction. He subsequently intends to move to London.

And my second question has to be, given you want some time to learn-and-listen,: "How many days do you have to be on board to make some significant statements on the forthcoming direction of Skype?" (Recalling, tongue-in-cheek, Jerry Yang's "100 Days" at Yahoo that eventually resulted in an unfriendly offer from Microsoft.)

Welcome, Josh! You have your challenges, but if you succeed, Skype can become one of the most powerful communications forces going for building a peaceful world as we witness power shifts from centralized enterprises and organizations to the individual. We wish you luck as you take on your responsibilities.

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February 15, 2008

Squawk Box Discusses eComm 2008

Over the past few weeks I have been calling into Alec Saunders' daily SquawkBox where he uses iotum's Free Conference Call on Facebook to discuss (and record) the issues of the day, usually with five to ten participants. In what was the best attended (17 participants) and most lively session yet, Dan York hosted (while Alec flew home from the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain) a very engaging interview with Lee Dryburgh, founder of the Emerging Communications Conference (eComm 2008). Later Dan interviewed Thomas Howe, one of the eComm speakers and threw the session open for questions and commentary.

When Alec arrived home this afternoon, he put up a post on today's SquawkBox where you can also click to hear the entire animated discussion.

At one point I had to challenge the contention that Skype usage is falling off. During the past week, concurrent online users has approached (but not crossed) 12 million around noon hour EST (GMT-5) - a long way from the sub-10 million numbers prior to Christmas. (And Borderless Communicator Hudson Barton figures there had to be 1.68 million new Skype users in the past month - I captured today's snapshot since his charts are updated very frequently.) Also, while not widely publicized, Skype accounts from North America almost doubled in 2007 using eBay's reported U.S. percentages as a proxy where US revenue increased 85%. Now if eBay would just release the same customer numbers as released by other US telcos instead of the SEC required bare minimum...

Update: Sheryl Breuker provides her perspective on the call. Her partner, Ken Camp, raised one of the most challenging questions related to data portability and how much do we really want to interconnect across various modalities while controlling our personal data.
Lee and I briefly chatted about the complex issue of data portability and how it plays in this revolution on the call, but this is a huge problem that we're really only beginning to understand. The telecom industry doesn't understand it all, but the innovators are really beginning to grasp it's full import. Data, our personal data, is a resource. In the world of social media, it may be our most important personal resource. As we learn how to share it effectively with our devices, and with our family, friends and colleagues, the ability to store all this information under our own control somewhere in the "cloud" so it can be accessed any time, anywhere from any device.

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February 14, 2008

A Call for Telecom Industry Wake-Up

This evening Lee Dryburgh, who took the initiative (and risk) to launch the forthcoming Emerging Communications Conference (eComm 2008) issued a "Call for Telecom Industry Wake-Up" where he states:

Communications innovation has been stagnant, in my opinion, for nearly a decade. Telecommunications and Internet communications both seem to be at somewhat of an impasse. The communications industry needs a forum to help break through the stagnancy and highlight the huge opportunity space that is emerging.

Further on Lee states:

The decade long planned protocol basis for delivering a multi-modal client into consumer play (SIP/SIMPLE) has shown little traction; it should be noted that this is the same protocol basis that operators are now hinging their future services around.

Instead four years ago a single private company (Skype) delivered a multi-modal client which was architecturally novel (peer-to-peer based), using their own proprietary protocol and which has gone on to be the most downloaded program in Internet history. So the SIP/SIMPLE vision to “re-engineer the telephone system from the ground up” is off course at best.

Over two years ago Alec Saunders issued his Voice 2.0 Manifesto, pointing out that the value-add for voice going forward will be in the applications. Thomas Howe, with many years' experience involving communications and web services, is building a business around Communications Enhanced Business Processes (CEBP). Dan York is expressing frustration in the realization of interoperability between Skype and other VoIP communications networks. In Lee's interview two weeks ago with Jonathan Christensen, one of those involved in the early days of SIP and now responsible for much of the new technology coming out of Skype, (and the leadoff keynote speaker at eComm 2008), Jonathan laments that..

the vision of the early SIP founders has been largely unrealized in the SIP world. SIP is typically just used for these very mundane trunking applications, like the one that we have, or sending calls between two networks and it's just calls. The vision of multi-modal communications and rich end points has largely failed within the same.

Interesting starting points for the conversations and presentations at eComm 2008. If you're in the telecom business responsible for future ongoing revenues or launching new services you want to attend (and participate). Register here and use "skypejournal08" as a discount code to save 15%.

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February 08, 2008

Jonathan Christensen: Leadoff Keynote Speaker at eComm 2008

Rising like a phoenix out of the ashes of eTel, Lee Dryburgh has taken the leadership in establishing a new conference that covers the bleeding edge of emerging communications. To be held at the Computer Museum in Mountain View, CA March 12-14, 2008, eComm2008, the Emerging Communications Conference, features sessions led by industry gurus with visions of radically altering the telecommunications industry into an open platform world.

eComm brings out the visionaries, emergent technologies, real-world startups, cutting-edge academic projects, views from the incumbent telecom players; garage based hacks and stirs required policy debates to create the ultimate three-day conversation.

The story of the decentralization of communications innovation has passed the second chapter which was VoIP. It is now regarded as a building block only. As a standalone service it is both uninspiring and unlikely to be highly profitable.

The excitement and profits will be derived from combining voice with other vectors we’re tracking ... more here.

Recently Lee interviewed Jonathan Christensen, Skype's General Manager for Video and Audio, as one of a series of interviews with several of the eComm2008 speakers, and covered several issues:

Continue reading "Jonathan Christensen: Leadoff Keynote Speaker at eComm 2008" »

February 05, 2008

How portable is your Skype data?

Getting your data out of applications has always been vital; it gives you the freedom to switch services. Skype is pretty good at this.

Through the user interface...

  • For your buddy list, you can export your contacts to an Outlook-compatible file (Tools > Advanced > Backup Contacts to File...).

  • There is no simple way to export your own profile from Skype. All the data can be copy/pasted from dialog boxes, but there is no export.

  • The only way to export your chat contents is to open each one and copy/paste.

  • Your history log is not exportable.  

  • There is no log/history of your searches.
  • There is no log/history of people requesting to become contacts.

  • There is no log/history of changes to your profile, your availability (presence status), or mood message.  

The Skype for Windows API exposes most of your data to programs, much more than the user interface. The Skype Email Toolbar, and third party software like Skylook, can read most of this data and write some of it.

The sad part: even if you write a program that exports all of your data, there's no way for other programs to understand most of it.

That's where the DataPortability initiative comes in.

The folks supporting DP assert:

    You should be able to see and use your data wherever you like, effortlessly.

    No lengthy profile creation every time you go to a new site.

    Skip the importing and exporting of contact data (and annoying your friends). 

    No need to abandon your in-system conversations.

    All of it is just where you need it.

    At another place.

    With new tools.

    Now.

This is a gargantuan business opportunity for companies that make software or web sites. It means they get to add value with "verbs" (things they help you do) more than "nouns" (storing your data). So better verbs drive customers to bring their nouns, and their friends' nouns.

Many needed technical protocols exist: APML, MicroFormats, OAuth, OpenID, OPML, RDF, RSS, Atom. Relatively little needs invention, at least at the lower levels. DataPortability working groups are designing action packs, technical and policy blueprints, and other tools to plan, design, and code your DP project. 

I remember when email couldn't travel outside the firewall and was vendor specific. We're contemplating a change that ubiquitous and profound.

February 01, 2008

A SIP/Skype Gateway Is NOT In The Forecast

Guest Post: Hudson Barton is a communications consultant whose Borderless Communicator blog not only talks about Skype and related IP communications activity but also attempts to track Skype's "real usage". According to his analysis, Skype has just cracked the 30 million real or "currently active" user number (based on tracking Users Online vs time-of-day). What follows is his post earlier this week summarizing some issues that were raised and discussed on the Skype 3.x discussion Public Chat forum following Dan York's recent guest post on SIP/Skype interconnectivity.

Skype's competitors and critics continually point out that Skype's VOIP architecture is closed and that its API is not adequate for creating a direct connection between the Skype "cloud" and the SIP "cloud". This of course is true, but there are good reasons for it.

  1. The security and reliability of the Skype cloud would be seriously compromised if SIP hackers were given the tools to create direct VOIP connections between Skype and the outside world.
  2. A SIP gateway to Skype might work if it were handled like SkypeIn/Out. However, I don't think there's a large enough population of SIP users out there to justify the cost of SIPIn/Out. Skype is growing at a rate of 500k-1000k "real users" per month, which is probably 10x faster than the rest of the VOIP world combined. A third party could build these gateways with the presently available API, but nobody is trying it to my knowledge... presumably because there is no demand for it. In any case, the developer (even if it were Skype) would have to justify the cost of such a gateway.
  3. An IM (text-only) gateway is very possible and would not compromise Skype's security or strategic position. Look for future interconnections with major players like AIM, gTalk, Yahoo, and MSN.
  4. The Skype cloud is far more complex and has far more features than the clouds of any of its competitors. It is not rational to expect any of them to create a feature-for-feature mirror of Skype even if this were something that would be good for Skype (which it is NOT). A partial list of these features: video, SMS, encryption, and file transfer.
  5. Relationships between Skype and social networks like MySpace are already possible if there is a partnership agreement. It does not require a change to the Skype API. Note that MySpace is a social network... not a VOIP carrier.
  6. Skype may double its revenues this year and it's already profitable. No other VOIP carrier is profitable (unless you want to count a few of the hosted VOIP services from the Telecoms and cable companies). A gateway to Skype will help Skype's competitors far more than it will help Skype, so from a strategic perspective it makes no sense to help the competitors survive. Without Skype's help, they (SunRocket and Vonage for example) are failing at a rapid rate. Meanwhile, "successful" competitors like Packet8 are monetizing themselves by selling off intellectual property. Obviously they "see the writing on the wall."

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January 31, 2008

Jonathan Christensen Discusses High Quality Video on Squawk Box

Earlier this week I mentioned that Jonathan Christensen would be appearing on Alec Saunders' daily Squawk Box this morning to answer questions about Skype High Quality Video. The session has now been posted as a podcast on Saunderslog. Well worth a listen to get answers to how High Quality Video evolved at Skype as well as some details of how it was a full end-to-end effort on the part of Skype, Logitech and On2 Technologies to meet Skype's goals.

As an indication of interest, normally there may be four to six participants on a Squawk Box con call; today there were thirteen.

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January 28, 2008

danah boyd at Davos

danah boyd (lower case is correct) is an ethnographer of teenage onlife. Robert Scoble interviewed danah at Davos this week about her Ph.D. dissertation. This thirteen minute video is rich in observations and analysis on how and why youth are socialized in the United States.

Skype depends on people bringing their real social network into Skype's. Skype's large but linear growth suggests the impulse to share geometrically (one of me to many of my friends) is running into limits.

Natural barriers interfere with word of mouth propagation and the widening use of a tool. Social networks run into limits on

  • buddy list size (few people reach Dunbar's Number of about 150),
  • local network saturation (all of your friends only know each other, and you've all chosen to get in or out)
  • language gaps (have you Skyped someone in Uzbek lately?),
  • trust along the social graph (maybe you don't invite acquaintances the way you would your close friends and family), and
  • conversational conventions (topics you do/don't discuss, styles and modes you use to discuss them).

Another of these barriers may be "age segregation." danah describes this as young people limiting their relationships to people within one or two years' of their age. Sort of a very granular generation gap that isolates strata, and that limits memetic propagation within physical and online communities.

January 23, 2008

Skype in Stealth Mode at CES

Guest post by Ed Prentice, CEO of Televoce and long time Skype partner.

You can read on Skype Journal about what you might see from Skype and partners at CES. Here’s what real visitors to CES see —not much. For the first time in a few years I attended CES as an attendee. I saw it much as anyone looking for new technology and business deals. You had to be looking hard to find Skype and think that they are a relevant player.

Continue reading "Skype in Stealth Mode at CES" »

January 19, 2008

CES 2008 - A Final Roundup of Coverage

CES 2008 generated a few items in the blogosphere that may be of interest to our readers.

Mobivox gets Scoblized: Nizan Shaer, COO of Mobivox, whose calling service provides access to your Skype contacts from any phone device, was interviewed for one of the last editions of the Scoble Show. Hat tip to Andy.

Don Albert, Skype's North American General Manager, was interviewed by CBC News reporter Peter Nowak. Of particular interest to Canadians is Don's response about SkypeIn numbers for Canada:

PN: You don't offer SkypeIn in Canada because regulations require phone service operators to offer enhanced 911, which allows the operator to locate where a caller is. What are you doing about this situation?

DA: That is the gist of it. We are working on it and we hear from Canadian users all the time that they want to have that available, so we've been working with partners who we think can help us with a solution there. We're hopeful that in the course of this year we'll be able to offer that.

In this interview Don also addresses some misconceptions about getting access to Skype via wireless carriers.

January 13, 2008

Skype is a "Must" for A Unified Communications Platform

Ever since the Internet became commercial in the mid-90's, the term "Unified Communications" has been tossed around as if it is some form of "holy grail" for a communications offering. PhoneBoy Dameon Welch-Abernathy finds the term somewhat overhyped in his recent post "Unified Communications Is A Pipe Dream":

Anyone who understands the technology knows that unified communications is a pipe dream. Perhaps within a small subset of the possible communication methods, for example the corporate PBX and the corporate-issued mobile phone, it is possible. In the real world, where people actually communicate, it’s not. There are too many ways to communicate and too many parties unwilling to open their networks to allow some unaffiliated third party to create an environment to manage all their communication.

To date, I have not seen a single unified communications “solution” – a buzzword if I ever heard it – incorporate all of the following:

  • SMS (not just sending, but receiving)
  • Skype
  • IM–not just corporate IM, but all public network IM
  • SIP, both outgoing to random SIP URLs and incoming SIP calls
  • Email from multiple locations
  • Social Networking (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Jaiku)

Until it includes SMS on my mobile phone, which none of the solutions I’ve seen even attempt to deal with, it’s not truly unified. Until it includes Skype – a tool I am using more frequently – it’s not unified. Unless it includes a SIP URL that anyone with an open SIP client can reach, it’s not truly unified. Until it handles all my IM stuff, it’s not unified. Until I can get a unified view of all my email and social networking traffic, it’s not unified. [Ed bold]

It would be interesting to see if Microsoft embeds Skype into their Live Communications Server offerings. And note PhoneBoy's positioning of Skype as a peer equivalent of SIP. On the other hand, Skype makes no attempt to position itself as a Unified Communications platform.

Note: Dameon more recently has started posting additional insights on The VoIP Weblog, a publication of the Creative Weblogging network.

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hnorati.com/tag/Dameon+Welch-Abernathy">Dameon Welch-Abernathy, ,

Skype saturates PC markets?

In my last post I made the following guess (see below): there is almost a saturation of Skype users in rich countries, and this is the title of a paper of CNNMoney.com, "Skype Seeks New Revenue Source As PC Downloads Near Saturation." This was told by Manrique Brenes, Skype's director of hardware business development, to Dow Jones Newswires! Therefore he confirms my "Saturation Speculation"!

Focusing on the synergy between other kinds of hardware and Skype could bring some revenue, but in the short term this will, in my humble opinion, not be very spectacular.

I still believe they should find a way to attract bigger multinationals: this would definitely boost the Skype usage.

January 02, 2008

Predictions? Wish List? What's In Store for 2008..

Having reflected on Skype's accomplishments in 2007 and some of the more interesting devices and technologies that have crossed my way, now for my projections for 2008. (In the interest of enhanced objectivity -- not that I can be totally objective -- I have yet to read Phil's 37 Sketchy 2008 Skype Predictions or Andy's The Road in 2008 (links below after you have read this <gr>).

1. eBay will appoint a new Skype CEO in the first quarter. Andy has his insights into the search.

2. The new CEO will focus on "Delight the User"

  • Introduce customer support plans (limited free and premium paid)
  • Provide <24 hour response time on customer support requests
  • Hire a Chief Marketing Officer who understands the role of, and process for, marketing a technology platform to both consumers and small businesses.
  • Provide guidelines on optimizing end user configurations for highest quality voice and video.
  • Set challenging goals for increasing SkypeIn and SkypeOut minutes used.
  • Change Skype business and management structure to support the development and marketing of platforms as opposed to services
  • Build a "Skype Inside" marketing program for Skype hardware
  • Build a blogger relations program
  • Improve dialogues with Developer Partners

3. Skype will introduce multi-party video conferencing (may initially only be three party)

4. Skype will focus on licensing two platforms:

Continue reading "Predictions? Wish List? What's In Store for 2008.." »

December 28, 2007

2007's Top Ten Skype Ecosystem Accomplishments

While this blog tends to focus on new developments and the role they can play in our future real time conversations, it sometimes pays to look back to see what has been accomplished. For 2007, these are, from my perspective, ten top accomplishments for the Skype ecosystem:

1. eBay CEO Meg Whitman states at an eBay quarterly analyst conference call, "Not enough focus on 'Delight The User'". Hopefully this is a high priority guiding principal in the search for a new Skype CEO. Great technology but needs the business development, marketing and leadership skills of a seasoned high technology executive to truly make Skype happen on a world market leader scale. End users need a delightful "total" experience, including user support, adequate and well timed announcement of changes to calling plans, more participation in the blogosphere, higher awareness and broader availability of Skype hardware ... and the list goes on.

2. Skype High Quality Video: because it brings a whole new dimension and level of realism to real time conversations. Yes, to take full advantage requires a new webcam with enhanced optics, but my final selection came because of the very positive reaction and response of those whom I converse with and who receive my High Quality Video (Recipients don't need all the requirements of senders -- the past two weeks two parties have observed "my" High Quality Video on their Macs.) A success story involving not only Skype software but also hardware specifications and co-operative device driver development.

3. HD Voice --nobody has called it that specifically but here I pick up a term used to name a Fall VON session. I refer to wideband voice transmission covering a minimum 8Khz audio bandwidth (twice that of conventional telephony). Over the year Skype has been making gradual improvements to the Skype voice engine, including the codecs, such that today most Skype voice conversations can be held with a basic laptop, and no additional headset or microphone (provided one is available in the laptop) is required. Over Christmas I helped my son with a Skype for Mac 2.6 installation; he made a call yesterday from his home that was very clear, with no echo, using his basic Mac speakers and mic. Each new version of Skype since Skype 3.2 for Windows has had some improvements but with Skype 3.6 for Windows I am getting many unsolicited comments, along the lines of this one, about how it better handles lower Internet connection bandwidth configurations. And, should you use a headset, such as the FreeTalk Wireless Stereo headset, for, say, personal privacy or office etiquette reasons, you will find your other parties on the call "in your head". HD Voice received additional support this fall when High Speed Conferencing became equipped with the ability to ensure all Skype participants on a conference call would experience HD Voice quality when conversing with other Skype users on the same call.

Continue reading "2007's Top Ten Skype Ecosystem Accomplishments" »

December 24, 2007

Delling with Bloggers: A Reprise

'Tis the season to reflect on social media, New Marketing and perception triggers in a Web 2.0 world.

Three weeks ago, in Delling with Bloggers: Listening, Engaging and Delighting the Users, I posted about a session with Dell's Richard Binhammer on Dell's experiences and some outcomes as a result of Dell's change in approach 18 months ago to dealing with the blogosphere. At the time I mentioned I had also had the pleasure of meeting a couple of times Lionel Menchaca, who is responsible for Dell's blog Direct2Dell. The initial months of Dell's blogging relationships were also reported in Shel Israel's and Robert Scoble's book, Naked Conversations.

Shel recently told me that the Dell case has become a "classic" in his presentations and discussions on the impact of social media on enterprise operations. Yesterday Shel, in his ongoing series of interviews for his SAP Global Report on Social Media's impact on culture and business, reported on an interview with Lionel that provides more insight into Dell's blogging activities, getting internal buy-in as well as rebuilding credibility with the blogosphere audience.

Recall Richard's comment: "You don't lose control by joining the conversation - you gain it. Not engaging online is when you lose control". In the interview Lionel talks a lot about managing control through blogging [author's bold]:

6. As you know, many enterprise decision makers are fearful of being shouted at, lack of adequate measurement tools, loss of message control, leaking secrets and of course--no clear ROI. How would you address each of these?

I think all of those issues are reasons why corporations stay away from joining conversations. I would argue though that the benefits of being part of the conversation outweigh all the risks. In my view, it’s really about facing the reality of the changes that are happening in front of us. Companies need to admit that control is shifting toward customers. More and more customers are talking about companies they either like or dislike. Those conversations happen with or without companies being actively involved. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that those conversations have more influence over perception than much of the marketing material and PR messages that companies produce.

We wrestle with measurement tools and ROI all the time for a couple of reasons:

• This is a new, but maturing field, and that means it will take time to develop tools and metrics that mean something on a broad scale
• Proving ROI in social media almost always involves looking at a topic over an extended period of time

In my view though, the real value in social media is that it has the potential to change customer perception in ways that just weren’t possible before. Just because that’s hard to measure doesn’t mean it’s not worth doing. Time will tell, but it seems to me that not being part of the conversation is a far riskier proposition.

The entire interview is definitely recommended reading. But then take the time to read two other thought provoking posts published today on the topics of New Marketing, passion, control and social media.

Hugh McLeod: "So What's All This New Marketing Stuff, Anyway?"

And Richard Binhammer: "Food for Though at Christmas".

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Thanks to Hugh McLeod for the cartoon; if they stocked Stormhoek at LCBO I'd pick some up.

December 20, 2007

Schedule Santa Skype Sessions

Santa 1 to 1 advert The happy Santas at Santa1to1.com will Skype you for €10 for a voice call or €17 for a high quality "Santa Cam" call in English, Finnish or Spanish.

This blend of Call center, Skype, and North Pole is a great example of Skypenomics at work.

  1. Marketing. Professionals offer a real time entertainment service.
  2. Discovery. Customers discover the service, via the web in this case.
  3. Coordination. They arrange a time (before December 26th in this seasonal case) and a channel (phone, Skype voice, Skype video).
  4. Negotiation. They arrange payment, in this case a fixed fee that bypasses Skype's Prime service.
  5. Delivery. They deliver the service, in this case over Skype.
  6. Payment. Major credit cards accepted. And PayPal, Skype's sister company.
  7. Reinforcement. Children dance with glee! Santa sends an mp3 or video file so you can experience it again.
  8. Virality. Parents book times for next year and tell all their friends and family. I cannot wait to see what shows up on YouTube.

From another Skype Journal post:

Simply, Skype helps people sell intangibles to each other the way eBay helps people sell atoms to each other. The intangibles markets are much larger than the goods markets, a humongous opportunity. Few companies have mastered the art of making those markets work online, but Skype is trying to learn, with Skype Find and the Skype Prime Beta and more services to come. Do you believe we live in an information, knowledge, entertainment, and service economy? Skype looks like a strategic investment.

Skype staff blogger Halina Mugame interviewed Alex Bright, CEO of Santa1to1. Find out what webcam Santa Claus uses and why Alex decided to start the service.

And to all a Good Skype!

Is This the Prelude to a World of Dedicated Video Phone Offerings?

Those folks at Engadget have been reading through the FCC applications again and uncovered an application from Creative for their (forthcoming?) inPerson wireless video conferencing phone. Interesting feature set claimed, including:

  • VGA camera (640 x 480)
  • 802.11b/g WiFi and Ethernet
  • TI DaVinci graphics chip, designed for set-top boxes and handhelds
  • 76-degree wide angle lens with "excellent low light performance"
  • fully integrated with SightSpeed accounts
  • TV out port
  • Battery life: 2 hours, increasing to 5 hours using TV out
  • no pricing available

Gallery of photos, probably taken from the FCC application. In order to attract an initial customer base, it seems like they've also partnered with SightSpeed as the device apparently incorporates SightSpeed support including "automatic SightSpeed account login, speed dials, call history and contact list management".

From my experience with Skype's High Quality Video and the subsequent reviews of the Logitech QuickCam 9000 Pro one would have to question if Creative has taken similar steps to Skype's partnering arrangement with Logitech to allow 30 fps video at 640 x 480 resolution over a 384 kbps upload speed.. I can also see end user network configurations issues to make it a practical consumer device. At the moment SightSpeed requries a 1.5 Mbps upload speed (well beyond standard broadband upload speeds of < 1Mbps). to support 640 x 480 @ 30 fps. Or has Creative licensed webcam technology from Logitech?

To go out on a speculative limb, can this portend a future Skype Video phone from, say, Logitech using their Carl Zeiss optics and RightLightTM2 low light sensing. Recall Skype and Logitech had to work together to adapt the Logitech Carl Zeiss cameras, through both device drivers and adaptation of Skype's p2p technology, to work at these specifications.

And how many telecom platforms will we have on our desk, in our house or on our belt (mobile devices). The world is a long way from figuring out where and how it wants to wear video. I am slowly adapting just using the High Quality Video for my Skype calls from my PC as a standard component of my conversations.

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December 14, 2007

Skype Developer Event New York City

Late this past Monday afternoon, VAPPS, Inc., operator of the High Speed Conferencing service, sponsored a Skype Developer Event at Soho House in the West Village of New York City (Lower Manhattan). Given that the Skype Developer Program has been in flux for the previous few days, there was certainly interest in hearing about the direction of the program.

At the event itself Peeter "Wolli" Mõtsküla announced that, having informed his wife the previous Monday that he would not be traveling any more in 2007, he was informed Thursday that he was becoming the Interim Director of the Skype Developer Program. As a result he was still getting his head around putting a direction to the program but could speak about the development roadmap that was first announced in Prague in September. Basically he reported delays in reaching this quarter's objectives for new API's and that he would be providing an updated roadmap by the end of January, once he had had more time to give a full assessment to what could reasonably be accomplished on the API front going forward.

Antoine "Ants" Bertout is continuing and expanding his role as the Developer Relations Manager, remaining in London, acting as the interface between the Developers in Tallinn and the Partners. Antoine outlined a few of his objectives but was more importantly meeting partners individually over the three days of his New York stay to get one-on-one dialogs going with each partner.

BubbleShare

We then had presentations from:

Continue reading "Skype Developer Event New York City" »

December 12, 2007

Skype Pro Replaces Skype Unlimited North America Plan

Anyway you look at it, results in more features for the dollar.

If you've been looking to subscribe to Skype's Unlimited North America plan over the past few days, look no more. To bring more consistency to Skype's calling plans worldwide, Skype has discontinued this plan and now offers Skype Pro to North Americans to provide:

  • Free calling for any calls initiated and terminated within United States and Canada (with no connection fee)
  • When traveling outside North America, free calls to any landline within the country you are calling from; however, you will pay a connection fee. For instance, a visitor to London will be able to make calls from Skype to any landline within the U.K.1 for only the cost of the connection fee.
  • Both calling plans are subject to the Fair Usage policy discussed below.
  • Call transfer to SkypeOut or from SkypeIn
  • Voicemail
  • Skype To Go
  • A 60% reduction in the cost of a SkypeIn number.

While pricing for Skype Pro, at $3.00 per month, remains virtually unchanged, for North American Skype users, Skype Pro now adds all the free calling features described above to the previous version of Skype Pro for North America. In effect it amounts to either

Continue reading "Skype Pro Replaces Skype Unlimited North America Plan" »

December 08, 2007

SJ co-sponsoring Presence 2.0: Rise of the Living Social Network

Presence 2.0: Rise of the Living Social Network is an exclusive, intimate, very expensive, one-day deep-dive. Friday, 18 January 2008.

Skype Journal co-founder Stuart Henshall will talk. Stuart spoke to the London Ecademy on corporate presence strategy and the future of presence 30 months' ago; I wonder how his views have changed. You can download the .wmv of his talk (Windows Media Player required). 

I'll lead exercises on being famous and finding true love. We'll do this by exploring archetypical roles in Presence 2.0 systems architecture and integration with social networks, the path to managing fame and finding love.

David Coleman, of Collaboration 2.0 fame, will lead a discussion on how presence triggers enterprise collaboration. LaVeta Gibbs, Cisco's director of global contact center strategy, will walk us through the new customer intimacy. More contributors to come.

I shared voice mashups at an earlier Value Network Cluster event on Enterprise Mashups. A great conversation with industry leaders. Let me know (skype:evanwolf) if you'd like to learn more or for the Skype Journal Friends discount.

What:Presence 2.0: Rise of the Living Social Network
SF Bay Area & Silicon Valley Cluster, Special Action/Research Event.
When:Saturday, December 8, 2007 (all day)
Where:Stanford Room, Embarcadero Conference Center
4 Embarcadero Center
San Francisco, California 94111   United States

Delling with Bloggers: Listening, Engaging and Delighting the Users

Not a typo; bad pun intended.

In August 2006 Jeff Jarvis wrote a post criticizing Dell and their treatment of customers, including the ignoring of bloggers. This post was a trigger for several hundred comments and other blog posts that did not do any enhancement of Dell's image to say the least. By June 2006, Dell senior management realized they had a problem and attempted to soft launch Direct2Dell. They quickly learned that, on the Internet, for a subject with a series of red hot issues, a soft launch is not possible. The rest, as they say, is history as Dell has become very proactive in the blogosphere with two major components:

  • Direct2Dell to cover issues related to Dell products and support, and
  • Idea Storm out of which arise product line changes such as the launch of a Linux-based offerings and reduction or elimination of bloatware shipped with most PC's.

This past Tuesday evening I had the opportunity to participate in a Q&A event in Toronto where Dell's Richard Binhammer, whose primary responsibility comprises monitoring and acting on blogger activity covering Dell, provided both some history and interesting information about how his coverage and timely responses on complaints, suggestions and other issues that arise in the course of selling and supporting Dell products have turned around Dell's image. Probably, at a minimum, these activities have also helped put the brakes to Dell's declining market share. In particular he stated that, as a result of his and his colleague's activities, they have seen a reduction in negative posts from 49% in the summer of 2006 (when he started participating) to 22%. Blogger Dave Fleet attended the session and gave a very detailed post here.

Richard's Key Take-Aways (according to Dave, and I concur):

Continue reading "Delling with Bloggers: Listening, Engaging and Delighting the Users" »

December 06, 2007

Skype Developer Partner Program in Flux

While I initially learned of this from a Facebook status update this morning, Skype issued the following statement early this afternoon:

Change has always been a constant at Skype and will continue to be. We will keep re-shaping our business to take advantage of the immediate and short-term opportunities in front of us. In this context, Paul Amery & Lester Madden have moved on from their current positions and we’re working closely with them to support them through this process.

In addition I have learned that responsibility for the Skype Developer Program has been moved to Tallinn under Peeter Mõtshüla who, in turn, reports to Sten Tamkivi, GM of e-Commerce and Estonia operations. Peeter, who has been instrumental in developing the Skype public platform roadmap, will be attending the New York Developer event planned for next Monday along with Antoine Bertout, Skype Partner Relations Manager.

Anyone who follows my posts in Skype Journal knows that I am a disciple of Alec Saunders' Voice 2.0 Manifesto (Adobe Reader required), whose thesis is that applications are the value creators in a Voice 2.0 world. Having worked with several of Skype's Developer Partners over the past year and a half, we have seen the evolution of a range of collaboration, conversation recording/archiving, call center and other ancillary offerings that provide value creation for their customers while reducing business operating costs.

If there is one constant to all these partners, it is their entrepreneurial belief in Skype as a business process facilitator and that Skype's best opportunity for revenues resides in disrupting legacy communications infrastructure with more flexible, more readily adaptable, lower cost business solutions. They have invested six or seven figure numbers in developing their Voice 2.0 offerings; let's hope these changes allow their applications to flourish in a win-win-win environment for Skype's Partners, the partners' customers and Skype itself.

In closing, my thanks to Paul and Lester for all the assistance they have provided over the past year and-a-half. Andy's network tells him that Paul had made significant contributions to the evolution of the Skype Developer Program.

Related posts:

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December 05, 2007

WebDialogs Unyte Re-emerges out of IBM SameTime Group...

... former WebDialogs CEO, now Lotus SameTime Director of Operations and Strategy, Lou Guercia leads a web seminar positioning the WebDialogs offerings, including Skype Extra Unyte Plus (to be renamed Unyte Share), within the overall SameTime product offering. Is IBM about to license Skype for real time communications technology?

Normally I don't get into the predictions business and I do my best not to violate any confidences, especially when there is embargoed information that could affect the stock performance of a company. What I report on this post is purely my own speculation as a result of having my ear to the ground over the past few weeks and pulling together seemingly independent comments and information to arrive at what amounts to a possible, but still speculative, conclusion.

While many have speculated that Skype should play a "portal" role in social networking, my contention is that Skype is first and foremost a communications service that should enhance real time conversations across many portal and other collaborative services. Skype's focus for research and development, marketing and business development resources should remain on building out this real time conversation infrastructure tools, not getting into businesses which would require a complete new set of business models to succeed (in a very competitive market space).

Recently I attended an press event for Check Point, a pioneer in securing Internet-based transmissions for the enterprise market (and more recently publisher of the highly regarded Zone Alarm security software for personal PC's). I first encountered Check Point in the commercial Internet pioneering days of 1994-1996 A key point in the recent Check Point presentation was that, to this date, they have stuck to their knitting and are one of the most respected brand names when it comes to enterprise communications security. From their website: "Check Point’s PURE focus is on IT security with its extensive portfolio of network security, data security and security management solutions."

In the same way Skype, with continuous improvements to evolve its real time voice and video conversation infrastructure1, does not need to divert its time and resources to what are effectively social networking services that aggregate and support "friendship portal" networks and require a totally different business model. In a more formal way, Skype has started down the path of portal partnerships with the announcement of a forthcoming relationship with MySpace. In this post I present some enough information "crossing my desk" in the past days to question whether Skype is about to announce a partnership with one of IT's pioneer enterprises who has taken to growth through acquisitions and partnerships.

Continue reading "WebDialogs Unyte Re-emerges out of IBM SameTime Group..." »

December 01, 2007

Expanding the High Quality Video Experience and Observations

In getting a better handle on Skype's recently launched High Quality Video service it was necessary to try a few scenarios "outside the box".

Over the past ten days I have been doing various tests to determine where to position Skype's High Quality Video including:

  • comparison with SightSpeed
  • working with a Mac at the other end
  • working with parties who do not have the necessary hardware to send High Quality Video.

High Quality Video vs SightSpeed

I have always been an admirer of SightSpeed since its launch at the "last Comdex" about five years ago. For 320 x 240 @ 30 fps video it has tended to be the benchmark standard. When testing Skype's High Quality Video with "Phone Boy" Dameon Welch Tuesday evening we had an ideal scenario for doing comparative testing. We were running Skype High Quality Video and SightSpeed on exactly the same platforms and network connections, neutralizing all those variables from the equation. And we were both using the new Logitech webcams with Carl-Zeiss optics and Right Light Sensing, so that was not a variable either. Also it was actually the first time I had run both Skype and SightSpeed at about the same time and picked up a few other differences.

Continue reading "Expanding the High Quality Video Experience and Observations" »

November 26, 2007

More Information on the London SkypeIn Numbers Issue

Several posts have been written about the changes of London SkypeIn numbers. VoIP Toolkit blogger David Meyer at ZDNet UK has dug further into the issue in "Skype must 'rebuild trust' after number debacle", talking with both Ian Fogg, an analyst with Jupiter Research:

"My advice to Skype would be: if you, as a company, wish to target small businesses or even consumers, you need to respond swiftly to reassure your users that this isn't going to happen again," he said. "Don't offer a different number without some kind of transitionary agreement."

....

"The regulatory position in the UK is not keeping up with where telephony is today," said Fogg. "The bit that's important is not dialing out — it's the contact number or contact address for incoming calls. That's what's quoted [to customers and contacts]."

and Don McQueen, managing director of GCI Telecom, supplier of the affected numbers:

Although he refused to divulge the exact details of the commercial dispute between GCI and Skype, he said that a "nominal fee" for the 0207 numbers had been charged to Skype until recently, when GCI "had to move to a market-rate fee".

"We have offered everyone who has [an affected SkypeIn number] the ability to keep their number with a VoIP service from us at £4 a month," added McQueen, who claimed that just under 10,000 numbers had been affected. "This service [and price] is probably not going to be offered to other people." McQueen said that interested customers should email sales@geonum.co.uk.

Read the full post for more details, including the role of the regulatory authority, Ofcom, in all this.

Aside from the perfectly justified issue this situation creates for Skype business users, what amazes me, on reading UK Telephone Code Confusion in Wikipedia, is that Londoners don't even know which digits are part of the city code and which are part of the local phone number. According to this reference, London's city code is simply "020" and the "7", "8" and "3" are simply the first digit in the local phone number. But I guess that is the confusion created when the "authorities" keep changing city codes every few years. If you can clarify the issue, please use the Comments to this post (and/or modify the Wikipedia item).

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November 15, 2007

37 Signals starts climbing the Skype Journal Site Skypification Maturity Model

Highrise is the simple customer relationship management system from 37 Signals. As part of last weekend's update:

We’ve added a “Skype” option to the phone number data type. Skype numbers are automatically linked up in the contact information sidebar. Clicking a Skype number will dial the number if you have Skype installed on your computer.

This is a work in progress, but we've been using our own version of the SEI Capability Maturity Model to assess the sophistication of Skypified web sites. The five stages of the SJ SSMM:

    0. None
    1. Static.
    2. Dynamic
    3. Peering
    4. Transactional

37 Signals is half way through Level 1 with Skype names and links.

With a little more explanation... 

    Skype Journal Site Skypification Maturity Model

    Level 0: None
    What's Skype?

    Level 1: Static
    Storing Skype names and Skype-linking Phone Numbers

    Storing and linking people’s Skype names is one part. The other is to offer SkypeOut links for PSTN phone numbers.

    Tech: Skype’s “skype:” html protocol to launch Skype from a browser link.

    Level 2: Dynamic
    Integrating Skype Presence

    Is this person available for a call now? You can show a person’s Skype presence in a web page.

    You can also use presence information to inform other site behavior. For example, you might aggregate presence data for a team to create collective presence scores.

    Tech: Polling Skype’s web presence services

    Level 3: Peering
    Syncing Skype Profile, Social Graph, and History Data

    Skype clients are information rich. You can use that data to enrich profiles, enhance your site’s social graph (who knows whom, how, and how they interact), collect communication histories (who talked to whom, when, for how long), and import chat archives.

    You can keep your site's data synced with Skype's by refreshing active connections with your Skype client.

    Tech: Using Skype’s client APIs to log in on behalf of a user. With that access you can both read and write to the client, and trigger conversations. At large scale, you will need to operate a Skype client farm.

    Level 4: Transactional
    Integrating Skype Business/Commerce Services

    Skype offers some access to its payment services. PamFax is an example of this, where customers pay with Skype credits for sent faxes.

    Tech: Skype publishing and DRM client and web service APIs.

The SJ SSMM helps us assess current Skype readiness and plan a Skype strategic roadmap for our consulting clients.

We've used maturity models in several areas of our consulting practice. I spoke at the 2006 ETel conference about our Skype Journal Platform Program Maturity Model.

Level 0. No API.

Level 1. Afterthought.

Level 2. API follows UI.

Level 3. Ambition and Leadership.

And the Skype Journal Connectivity Maturity Model addresses a device's Skype-completeness.

Level 0. No connection.

Level 1. Skype indifferent.

Level 2. Skype aware.

Level 3. Skype conversant.

How Skype ready is your site?

3 Skypephone: It's All About the User Experience!

While returning to the home office from my workout yesterday morning, before I started driving, I pulled out my Blackberry 8820, selected the iSkoot icon to open iSkoot (which auto logs into Skype), selected a Skype contact in the U.K., clicked on Call, heard a message asking me to "please wait while the call is completed" and within seconds I was talking to my contact in the U.K.

We talked for 15 minutes (over my nXZen Bluetooth headset for obvious safety reasons). A simple, straight forward, familiar user experience -- total cost was a 15 minute charge against my Rogers wireless monthly subscription for a local call (from iSkoot's Toronto POP to my phone). Even the callback operation itself was transparent to the user. In fact, it meets my "Truphone test" for user experience: Look up a contact in a device address book, select which phone number, press the Call button and the call is connected with no further user action.

If this sounds similar to the 3 Skypephone experience, it is; iSkoot provided the Skype access client in the Skypephone. In my case the Skypephone's Skype button is replaced by the iSkoot icon on the Blackberry. Bottom line is that whether via 3 Skypephone or my Blackberry over Rogers a connection is readily made and there are minimal, if any, charges. And it is a very familiar user experience, comparable to making wireless calls via the service provider's native (GSM) voice network. (Photo above: Blackberry 8820 running iSkoot and Skypephone together at Fall VON session on Goin' Mobile with Skype.)

Since the introduction of the 3 Skypephone two weeks ago I have seen many commentaries attempting to find issues with the offering. Very simply stated the 3 Skypephone offers:

Continue reading "3 Skypephone: It's All About the User Experience!" »

November 12, 2007

Interopportunities Lost: Joost partners with Meebo, not Skype

Skype doesn't offer a free, public, documented IM gateway for the Skype network. It's not even on Skype's public roadmap. So companies that want to embed Skype chat in their service skip Skype.

Joost choosing meebo for channel chat is natural; meebo interops with all the major IM players (AIM, ICQ, MSN, Yahoo Messenger, and IRC). Not Skype. That's not to say everyone uses the same protocol. They don't. But each have free, public, documented IM gateways. So meebo and Trillian and others can help the public talk within and across networks.

Joost's close relationship with Skype (common founders, investors, personnel) should make the meebo alliance sting a bit. Then again, you can prototype a meebo app in an hour. Using meebo's free, public, documented web service API

It's great that Skype will blend white pages and presence service into the new MySpaceIM client. But it works through a contracted, private, undocumented gateway.

Skype must choose.

A handful of close, high-touch relationships? Or platforms that:

  • fuel population growth,
  • trigger Skype conversations,
  • make it fast, affordable, reliable and convenient to blend Skype into anything.

Interoperability's opportunities are immense and apply to voice, video, file sharing, and commerce.

See also:

November 05, 2007

Is there an Android in Skype's Future?

<chest thump>Last April I posted about my experience with using "Google Mobile" on various mobile device platforms, including Blackberry, Nokia N80/N95 and N800. At the time my "gut" was saying that Google would not want to get into the hardware business but rather build out from this mobile experience to provide some form of software play for hardware players. Today I see on the Official Google Blog a post by Andy Rubin that starts out:

Despite all of the very interesting speculation over the last few months, we're not announcing a Gphone. However, we think what we are announcing -- the Open Handset Alliance and Android -- is more significant and ambitious than a single phone. In fact, through the joint efforts of the members of the Open Handset Alliance, we hope Android will be the foundation for many new phones and will create an entirely new mobile experience for users, with new applications and new capabilities we can’t imagine today.

</chest thump>

Dan York says "It's about the platform":

"It's about an open platform, stupid!" While I didn't include Google when I first wrote my post about how voice is really all about application platforms, I did note in the comments that I had intended to do so... and today's announcement really shows that they should be in anyone's list of telephony application platforms.

Of course this brings up many questions:

Continue reading "Is there an Android in Skype's Future?" »

Skype Developer Newsletter: October 2007

About six weeks ago I was asked some questions by Skype Developer Program Newsletter Editor, Halina Mugame, about Skype and its Developer Program. The outcome, An External Perspective: A Viewpoint on Skype from 18 months with Skype Journal, appears in the October issue of the Skype Developer Newsletter.

Here's an overview of the newsletter contents:

Goin' Mobile with Skype -- Beep, Beep

Interest in Skype on mobile platforms drew a reasonable size audience to the Goin' Mobile with Skype session at Fall VON last Wednesday. And the queries at the session certainly were a gauge of the intensity of interest. Panelists represented a range of options for using Skype on mobile devices.

The four panel participants on the left have various Blackberry models while James Body of Truphone holds an iPhone, a Nokia N95 and a Nokia E61; Samuel Li of iSkoot brought along a Skypephone running on AT&T. An informal poll of the 40 to 50 attendees showed only two hands went up for Windows Mobile device users with the remainder split between Blackberry and iPhone devices.

As a result of a last minute invitation from Jon Arnold (seated, center with the Red Sox cap), who chaired the session, I provided a lead presentation of an overview based on my Skype Primer post a week ago on Mobile Conversations. Helen Khais of Shape Services (left), publisher of IM+ for Skype, talked about invoking Skype conferencing onto mobile devices, a differentiating feature of IM+ for Skype.

Showing data supporting his contention that voice over cellular data or WiFi will still only represent less than 10% of all voice traffic in 2012, Mobivox CEO Stephane Marceau (second from left) reminded us that evolving the mobile experience to the mass market involved simplicity:

Continue reading "Goin' Mobile with Skype -- Beep, Beep" »

November 01, 2007

Webless Social Networks (like Skype) must embrace OpenSocial vaporware

Skype is a social network. Really, dammit! I have a profile. I have friends. We communicate. We do things. We update each other. It's extensible. Skype is a social network.

Signed on to OpenSocial so far

  • Bebo
  • Engage.com
  • Flixster
  • Friendster
  • hi5
  • iLike
  • Hyves
  • imeem
  • LinkedIn
  • MySpace
  • Ning
  • Oracle
  • orkut
  • Plaxo
  • RockYou
  • Salesforce.com
  • Six Apart
  • Slide
  • Tianji
  • Viadeo
  • XING

Google and friends introduced OpenSocial standard vaporware  specs and documentation this week. OpenSocial tells programmers who extend social networks with applications, how to write them so people in those networks can do new/more things in those networks.

It also promises programmers: write once, run everywhere. Everywhere being sites and services that are OpenSocial "containers."

Specs aren't public yet but the list of those buying in (at right) is impressive. MySpace are abandoning their own APIs in favor of OpenSocial. Orkut, Live Journal, TypePad, LinkedIn, Oracle, Salesforce say they will {pick one: adopt, employ, comply with, join, embrace, swallow, hug, love, adore} OpenSocial. Hype aside, it looks like a good thing.

Skype could easily be a container, letting plug-ins run in a client browser window. This wouldn't take away from Skype-specific apps. Skype as an OpenSocial container would:

  • Create more conversational triggers
  • Give users more reasons to keep the Skype client up and running
  • Give friends of users more reasons to try/adopt Skype
  • Enroll thousands of new developers to the Skype developer program

Skype could publish OpenSocial apps. Why not build Skype widgets into web based networks? Why shouldn't I be able to open my LinkedIn account and add Skype widgets to...

  • Display my friends' moods/presence.
  • People I chatted/talked with on this day a year ago.
  • Public chats my friends and friends-of-friends find popular.
  • Launch in-browser Skype chats. 

The upside is huge, the risk is tiny, and it's consistent with Skype's strategy of being where people want to talk.

October 28, 2007

VoIP is Dead; Long Live Embedded Voice

Thomas Howe laments the passing of the eTel conference and the thinking behind its demise that VoIP is boring ... stagnant ... unappealing ... not sexy. But he goes on to say "stick a fork in it baby, VoIP is done". And then he gets to the meat of voice's role going forward:

.... I think that anyone who deeply thinks about this stuff knows that voice, in and of itself, is pretty stagnant and boring. But, if you only consider voice by itself, and voice services as only being about voice, then you’re really at a dead end. But, as Martin Geddes would say, if you see the transformation from horizontal voice into vertical services, where voice stops becoming the important part, and starts supporting the other applications around it… then you see we {are} at the beginning of true, massive and ubiquitous voice enabled applications. I can’t believe that true Internet guys would miss this obvious architectural (in both business and bits) opportunity, but apparently… they have. [author's bold]

When you take out the hardware and, concurrently, you take the complexity out of call center operation as OnState has done for call center management, when you start providing tools for making conversations asynchronous as Evoca has done with their audio web services, when you embed conversation tools (voice and IM) into Salesforce.com as PamConsult has done by developing Skype for Salesforce.com you can start to see voice embedded into customer relationship management applications.

Go back and read my Skype Primer post on Skype's Extra Gallery and Developer Partner Program. Enhance business processes by embedding voice and you have a key differentiator for Skype; enhance business processes by embedding voice and you have not only increased productivity but also increased revenue opportunities for both the partners and their customers.

I look forward to meeting Thomas this week and learning more about embedding voice such that it supports many other vertical applications around it.

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Innovations in Conferencing at VON Boston

Tuesday I will be heading to Boston for the annual fall VON event. The past few shows have been criticized for their migration towards a "carrier" conference, leaving little room for attracting the innovators in the (IP) telecommunications space. As a result Carl Ford, Chief Community Development Officer at PulverMedia, has included an Innovator's Track where the creative talents reign supreme. Intriguing topics to be covered include

with panelists such as Thomas Howe (aka Mr. Mashup), James Tagg (Truphone), Ben Lilienthal (VAPPS - HighSpeedConferencing), Aswath Rao, Helen Khais (IM+ for Skype), Stephane Marceau (Mobivox), Samuel Li (iSkoot), Jeff Black (Talk Plus) amongst others.

But this was not sufficient so Carl has also worked with Thomas Howe, Alec Saunders and other to create a VONCamp UnConference. I have no experience with Unconferences but in addition to Alec and Thomas both Jon Arnold and Brough Turner have written about it.

The challenge for me is to determine when I should be at the Innovators Track and when at the VONCamp. But to help sort it out:

The Innovators Forum is a series of sessions that show case companies in our more traditional format. However dialogue in these sessions is encouraged. The VONCamp Unconference is harder to describe, because it gives people a chance to self identify as a speaker. ... If you've got something you want to discuss that's outside the formal program, VONCamp Unconference is the place to do it.

October 27, 2007

A Primer for Skype's Direction: Mobile Conversations

This is the fifth post in a series summarizing the current state of Skype's ecosystem and providing a perspective on the assets in place for a new CEO to run with.

The intrigue of low cost mobile conversations in a user-friendly environment has generated significant interest and speculation amongst Skype followers. Device resource capacity, communications standards limitations and finding a role within carrier business models have all imposed restrictions on the adoption of Skype on mobile platforms. I probably see more queries about using Skype on a mobile platform than the combination of all other Skype issues. And, as with designing mobile websites, it's not a simple case of what works on the landline web works on wireless mobile platforms.

A Brief History of Skype on mobile devices

May 2005 saw the initial speculation about Skype on a (Symbian) mobile platform; nine months later Stuart reported on the sighting of a prototype Skype for Symbian1 that provided text messaging and a "push to talk" application that has never seen the light of day. Over the past three years we have seen the evolution of Skype for Mobile on Windows Mobile platforms. Skype WiFi phones, available in the fall 2006, did not exactly take off due to both sparse wireless coverage and device resource limitations (not to mention costs). This past summer we learned about two Skype-enabled services providing both voice and chat for Blackberries and Nokia smartphones (IM+ for Skype and iSkoot); they actually worked more or less as promoted! And it sounds like next week we may actually see a Skype phone on the 3 services.

Wireless VoIP: a Primer

At VON Boston next week late Wednesday morning will see a session "Going Mobile with Skype - Beep, Beep". So it's timely to review what we have learned to date, where the Skype on mobile platforms world is at and the critical questions for this session. First, what have we learned:

  • Wireless access: VoIP over wireless requires either WiFi or a 3G network to have the horsepower to provide the low latency2, appropriate bandwidth as well as data handling speeds required for high quality calls.
  • Dual mode devices that support WiFi and/or 3G have only recently become available. Nokia's E61, N80 and N95 along with the recently introduced Blackberry 8320 Curve and 8820 are examples.
  • There exists an installed base of 3.5 billion conventional phone devices and handsets
  • There are currently two applications that support true VoIP calling on mobile platforms:
    • Truphone is fully integrated into various N-series devices such that VoIP calls can be made from WiFi zones or over a 3G network. But Truphone is largely a voice only service.
    • Skype for Mobile works on Windows Mobile 5 & 6 platforms but again requires WiFi or 3G.
    • Both these applications are fully integrated in that they access the native address book and follow the legacy process for making phone calls: look up a name, select a number, push the Call button and the called party's phone rings.
  • Update: The 3 Skypephone introduced Monday, October 29 fundamentally changes nothing with respect to the above statements..

Skype's User Issues

The key user issues involving Skype access on mobile devices include:

Continue reading "A Primer for Skype's Direction: Mobile Conversations" »

October 20, 2007

Comcast blocks torrents, Lotus for the greater good; Skype next?

So far Comcast is shutting down IBM Lotus uploads and bittorrents. A U.S. ISP arrogantly deciding they know better than their paying customers which bits deserve standard treatment and which should be punished. Discriminating based on the content of those bits. They call it "network management" or "traffic shaping" for the good of the network. Rogers in Canada throttled traffic almost two years' ago. China does this every day; Skype Journal is still blocked in China. Censorship by any other name... 

Skype could be next. Nothing in law or contract keeps Comcast from disrupting your communication based on your content. For all we know, Comcast does this now.

What to do about this? David Isen says a Net Neutrality law is not enough.

If, instead, we had a law that said, "Network operators must not have a financial interest in any of the content carried by that network," we could be assured that any network operator's network management would be for the sole purpose of running the network. Such a law would keep government out of the network management business. Enforcement would be via financial audit. Such a law is called Structural Separation.

Professor Susan Crawford calls for Weinbergerian Delamination:

What's the solution? Structural separation. You’re either a plain-vanilla transport company serving all comers, or you’re something else competing for our attention. But this mixture, this hybrid of apparent-communication plus editorial control, is unacceptable.

Proof that Comcast's behavior is evil? The pimps for laisse faire at the Technology Liberation Front don't seem to mind it.

October 18, 2007

Skype-labeled iSkoot VoIPless mobile phone from Three

BusinessWeek has the skoop. Mobile carrier 3 will offer a Skype branded mobile with the iSkoot app this month. iSkoot confirms a Skype phone will be launched, and iSkoot will be on it. BW puts first ship in the next two to three weeks.

This is an enormous opportunity to extend the Skype brand in in the UK, Italy, Hong Kong, Australia and Hutchison Whampoa's other markets. Unlike apps you download to your phone, or even releases that come preloaded with an icon in the main menu, a "Skype" phone should put the Skype experience front and center.

iSkoot's technical architecture makes this possible. But it's only half-VoIP.

The problems: Skype tried to create complete versions of the Skype client for mobiles. The code Skype came up with burned through data plans, burdened underpowered data networks, and overtaxed most mobile CPUs.

iSkoot gets around these barriers with some clever engineering.

  1. iSkoot wrote their own client. This lets them keep it lightweight.

    • The client offers a minimal subset of the Skype for Windows client's features.

      • It starts with a few account services: activate a new skype user, log in, log out, add SkypeOut service and credits.

      • You can see your Skype contact list, add or remove buddies, see their presence, change your own presence.

      • You can Skype chat with emoticons, conference chat, call Skype friends, call SkypeOut numbers and answer Skype calls.

      • A unique feature for iSkoot: templates for quick answers in Skype chats.

    • Downside 1: Things you cannot do with this generation of iSkoot client: anchor a conference call, transfer a call, transfer files, make or answer Skype video calls, participate in Skypecasts. UI only localized for eight languages.

    • Downside 2: No Skype plug-in API for the iSkoot client.
  2. The iSkoot client talks to iSkoot servers, not the Skype network. The servers do that for the client.

    • This avoids trying to map Skype's whole p2p architecture over a mobile network.

    • It also lets iSkoot co-locate their servers in a wireless carrier's data center, for better security and uptime.

  3. the iSkoot client puts voice calls over the carrier's voice network, unlike Skype.

    • Carriers love this: your Skype calls show up as billable minutes.

    • Your Skype voice call and your regular phone call both travel over the same network until they get to your carrier's switch. The carrier routes your Skype calls to the iSkoot server. The iSkoot server runs a PBX switch which answers the call and bridges them to the Skype network. 

    • Downside 3: iSkoot voice calls are not encrypted on the mobile leg of the call.
    • Downside 4: Audio quality is lower than Skype's standard wideband because the iSkoot client is using a phone's ordinary codecs and microphones. Mobile users may not notice this difference. 

  4. the iSkoot client puts all Skype's non-voice traffic over the data network. IM, presence, authentication, etc. This is only a trickle of data, compared to voice or video, so there's little to no stress on a carrier's network. Again, networks love this.

    • Downside 5: Because Skype hasn't shared their encryption algorithms with iSkoot, your Skype chats aren't encrypted, although your login is.

  5. iSkoot servers run huge banks of Skype VoIP clients with management software. These servers connect iSkooters to Skype. 

    • The iSkoot server runs a software PBX/switch that answers your phone call and bridges it to a Skype client. The Skype client running in iSkoot's server farm thinks your mobile phone looks like a PC headset, with audio in and out.

    • iSkoot servers talk to the Skype.com server for authentication, logging in to the Skype network as a user.

    • iSkoot servers talk to the Skype cloud for chats, presence, and other operations (made possible by Skype's client APIs).

    • iSkoot servers talk to Skype's gateway services, SkypeIn and SkypeOut

Who benefits?

  • iSkoot makes its money by revenue sharing from mobile carriers, at least for now.

  • Carriers sell more data plans but use them only a little more, and increase billable minute sales, without promoting scary Wi-Fi. These are

  • Skype shows up in more people's lives more of the time, without rebuilding for Symbian 60, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, UIQ, Palm, or J2ME platforms.

  • Skypers get the 90% of the essential Skype experience: contact lists for dialing, time savings of presence 1.0, collaboration in group chats.

  • Handset device makers, like Sony Ericsson and Nokia, can offer new flavors of 

What's ahead? Informed speculation:

Continue reading "Skype-labeled iSkoot VoIPless mobile phone from Three" »

October 17, 2007

Skype Breaks Through 8-Digit Psychological Barrier

Earlier today, as confirmed to me by a couple of Contacts, and more recently by Skype PR, Skype, for the first time passed 10 million users concurrently online. That's about seven (7) Estonias or almost the combined population of Estonia and Sweden.

What has been also noticeable the past couple of weeks is that this number remains above 9 million well into the North American Eastern time zone afternoon. The count on the right was captured at 1408h EDT (1808 GMT) today.

In a few hours we will see the third quarter results for eBay with the limited information regularly provided about Skype. We can easily speculate that there will be over 240 million Skype accounts registered but we also know these accounts go stale over time (especially now that Skype is over four years old); there are multiple accounts for a single user, along with other reasons to question the actual number of active accounts.

At this point it would be most helpful to analysts and shareholders if eBay would divulge Skype numbers along the lines of what is revealed by the legacy telcos, such as number of Skype users who actually made at least one call during the past quarter, number of subscribers to revenue services, such as SkypeIn/SkypeOut/Voice Mail, Unlimted North American Calling and SkypePro, and % of revenue that comes from each of communications services, hardware royalties and software-related revenues (licensing and royalties).

Skype is playing with the big boys in terms of usage; time to play with them in terms of reporting. Rather than providing information which, in any event, would be of minimum value to competitors, of overriding importance is that providing these numbers could be a stimulus to increased usage, especially in the small-to-medium business sector.

And, at 1437 EDT, there are still 9,673,000 online.

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October 16, 2007

Skype voice engine powers new MySpaceIM client

MySpaceIM with Skype clientThey are announcing "MySpaceIM with Skype" beta tomorrow so here's the first look.

  1. Skype's engine will power voice calls inside the new MySpaceIM client 
  2. Shipping in November 2007
  3. Windows only 
  4. A MySpaceIM with Skype user can now Skype a Skype user without downloading Skype's client 
  5. Skype presence will show for Skype contacts
  6. Voice calls will be encrypted just like Skype calls
  7. Privacy logic using MySpace friend lists affect who can call you, the same way they affect who can IM you
  8. You can buy Skype's premium calling features (SkypeIn, SkypeOut, Call Forwarding, and Voice Mail) for your MySpaceIM client
  9. You don't need the Skype client for the voice calls.
  10. You will need it for Skype's conference calling, video calls, Skype chat, multi chats, public chats, Skypecasts, Skype Prime, and secure file transfer features
  11. One MySpace profile maps to One Skype profile 
  12. MySpace is promoting MySpaceIM in the control panel

Observations:

  • Social media are becoming more Real Time and Real Time Media are becoming more Social (as we've been saying here on Skype Journal for years)
  • Web based social networks provide triggers for conversation, and new Call Me buttons should make it much easier to act on that impulse
  • MySpace will benefit from Skype's worldwide network, and Skype will benefit from MySpace's strong US presence
  • Skype will benefit as people upgrade to richer Skype clients, and all premium features that live there
  • As Mark Hendrikson notes, this is the first time we've seen Skype Inside another company's software

News release below...

Continue reading "Skype voice engine powers new MySpaceIM client" »

A Primer for Skype's Direction - Skype's Extras Gallery and Developer Partner Program

This is the fourth post in a series summarizing the current state of Skype's ecosystem and providing a perspective on the assets in place for a new CEO to run with.

Getting to the Present

Alec Saunders' Voice 2.0 Manifesto talks about Applications as the value creators in a Voice 2.0 world. Once again Skype differentiates itself through a two-year-old Skype Developer Partner program as evidenced by Skype's Extras Gallery. But getting to this point was not easy; in fact:

  • Developer Partners had to be true entrepreneurs who kept their vision of a value-generating application above all the obstacles encountered in not only developing their offering but also in initially marketing it. Close communication with many players at Skype was a key to resolving many issues.
  • Skype needed to develop experience with all the subtleties of a developer program from building a roadmap and a viable API set to communicating where Skype would play and where they would let their Partners play in the overall market space.
  • Skype's API set has evolved over time to the point where only over the past summer, as evidenced through the Skype Mashup competition, it provides a more complete set of developer tools, including many, such as Call Transfer, that have been clamored for by developers. (But Skype is by no means finished yet with delivering API's.)
  • Skype has also developed a publishing platform, Publishing Studio, that lets developers focus on their application while providing the infrastructure to bring the application to market and generate transactions associated with the application
  • To provide standards for quality assurance, Skype is in the process of certifying its partners' software applications.

The Voice 2.0 Challenge

Continue reading "A Primer for Skype's Direction - Skype's Extras Gallery and Developer Partner Program" »

October 08, 2007

Should Skype buy Jajah? Lypp? Truphone? Jaduka?

Click in your browser and your phone rings. Skype needs to offer this relatively stupid, underfeatured stuff. Because this stupid stuff is faster, simpler, and more familiar than Voice Over Instant Messaging.

  • Jajah does one simple thing: bridge two phone numbers. It does it brilliantly, letting people trigger calls from phones and web pages. Click-to-call. Easy peezy.

  • Lypp does the same sort of thing, but at the programming level, launching conference calls for groups of people in social networks. (Congratulations on the launch, Lypp)

  • Truphone works like Jajah, but from hybrid cell/wi-fi mobile phones, routing calls over the Internet when it can.

  • Jaduka, like Lypp, rents their phone network connections so anyone can build their own Jaja, Lypp or Truphone. A programming platform for for connecting web apps to the public telephone network, and billing for it.

eBay is no pool of early adopters. Buyers are conditioned for "Victory!" Buyers exhibit the same gamer twitch responses as stock market day traders. Attention spans measured in milliseconds.  

So when buyers have that precious, fleeting impulse to call a seller, you don't want them taking time out to {download, install, register, test your hardware, learn to dial}. A dive into Internet telephony is a complete tangent to on-site buyer goals at eBay.

Skype call me button, photoshopped variation of Jajah button
mock Skype 'call me' button, with apologies to Jajah

So Skype needs a faster way to get virgins to try Skype. To use Skype. To use Skype the Brand.

Skype-the-brand is not Skype-the-technology.

Skype-branding a Jajah-like experience (type in

your phone number and your phone rings with the seller at the other end) may get people to try. Seconds instead of minutes.

You can tempt buyers to download/upgrade on the basis of their great "Skype Lite" experience. If the business goal is to help buyers and sellers engage, to foster conversations that lead to category invigoration, then you cannot let your software get in the way.

It comes down to the Skype brand. Does Skype stand for a specific software experience? Or for rich communication, whenever, however you need it?

As for Lypp and Jaduka, can the Skype brand also mean...

"we power the programmers who power conversation"?

Next post: Why hasn't Skype done this yet?

October 05, 2007

A Primer for Skype's Direction: Enabling Real Time Conversations

This is the second in a series summarizing the current state of Skype's ecosystem and providing a perspective on the assets in place for a new CEO to run with.

In the first post I provided a high level backgrounder on Skype's five primary assets and the three business groupings within the Skype ecosystem. Today I want to talk about Skype's core real time conversation infrastructure enabling:

  • voice (traditional voice calls, conference calls)
  • text messaging (chat, SMS)
    • conversation archiving
  • presence
  • video
  • directory services
  • group chat
  • calling services:
    • speed dial
    • voice mail
    • call forwarding
    • call transfer
  • file transfer

The first point to be made about Skype is that it is NOT a VoIP service but rather a comprehensive enabler of real time conversations. No other player in the softphone or landline space offers such a broad range of services that allows the user to enhance the conversation by, say, capturing a screen segment and using Snag-It to send to a Skype contact, adding up to 8 more participants to an initial voice call as necessary during the call, transferring the call to up to five locations to increase the possibility of getting to the desired person, or dragging an Outlook Contact to the Skype client to provide full contact information.. Nobody provides up to eight ways to perform a file transfer during a call.

Some highlights of these services:

Continue reading "A Primer for Skype's Direction: Enabling Real Time Conversations" »

October 03, 2007

Mashup Opportunities: Discovery

What mashup should/can you build? I've been looking for models to help Skype Journal's consulting clients understand the range of integration opportunities.

For context, start with The Anatomy of a Call:

Phil Wolff: Anatomy of a call: Before, Start, During, End, After

Three stages:

  • Before the call. All the elements that bring the parties together.

  • During the call. Augmenting conversations, switching or combining communication modes, handle interruptions, changing the parties, choosing privacy policies.  

  • After the call. Records, analysis, feedback, repurposing of recordings for social media.

And the two transition points:

  • Start the Call. Making connections, choosing devices, deciding to start or defer.

  • End the Call. Prepare for disconnect, plan for follow up, disconnect smoothly.

Diving deeper, we can explore goals and strategies associated with each step in the timeline.

Let's look at Discovery, one of the things you do before a conversation. Discovery is about finding strangers, or groups of strangers, to talk with (or people you know but didn't think of for this call). 

Six discovery strategies:

  1. Follow a thread. As you surf the web/email, something catches your eye. You follow blogrolls, author links, comments and forum threads. As you surf, your intentions strengthen, so when you discover someone worth talking to, you're ready to initiate contact.
  2. Search. "White pages" search lets you look up a person by name. Today's "people search" offers more attributes, including education and career histories, publications and citations, geography, and biography. "Yellow pages" business search

  3. Communities of Interest. Online has always been full of places where people gather around topics. I started to write "Communities of Practice" but CoP is too specific to the workplace. Interest applies to many contexts.

  4. Matching. Some "market maker" services specialize in finding mutual matches. Job boards bring job seekers {offer: knowledge, sklils, abilities, experience; wants: type of work, compensation, location} with jobs/employers {offer: workplace, roles/responsibilities, compensation; wants: fit, competence}. You see the same thing with dating/romance sites, activity/partner sites (seeking an intermediate tennis partner for Tuesday evening practice), language learning communities, free-agent gig sites, etc. "Mutual" is what makes this matching, not search.

  5. Introduction. Referral. Turning social networks into social capital starts with referrals. Who better to trust than a stranger referred by a friend?

  6. Accident. Call it Serendipity, a happy chance. Did you click the wrong name, mistype a web address, leave your IM handle on a blog post? Love stories are full of "cute meets" and we're seeing the same thing online.

Each discovery strategy brings its own set of tempos, user goals, contexts, values, and measures of success.

  • Can you continue discovery during the rest of the call? Help discover and invite relevant people into an ongoing conversation? Promote a conversation's archives to attract more people to the next conversation?

  • Can you improve on Skype's directory? On your company's directory?

  • Can you make it easier for people in your communities to discover each other and launch into 1-to-1 or group conversations?

  • How can you combine discovery methods to improve relevance and fun?

As with other "before" strategies, discovery is only as good as its integration with "Start the Call."

We always want our product's scope to be right every time. Experience Opportunity Maps like these help Skype-connected applications find sweet spots and market opportunities. If this topic interests you, you can always Skype me, or join others with similar obsessions in Skype Journal's public chat or the Skype Mashup chat.

Jeff Pulver Comments: I Come to Praise Skype....

Yesterday, VoIP industry pioneer and visionary Jeff Pulver put out his post commenting on the changes at Skype: I Come to Praise Skype, not to Bury Them. Jeff, better than any of us, understands the value of VoIP technology as contributing to a platform for building communities through real time conversations: He stands by, and quotes, his words posted at the time of eBay's Skype acquisition and follows them up with:

Back then I also was thinking how eBay might be able to leverage the power of Skype in a private eBay Social Media platform when I wrote: "Unlike traditional voice communications providers, eBay gets the concept of community and community building. Adding a rich IP-based communications capability -- including IM, voice and presence applications -- to its community should dramatically enhance the value of and services available to eBay's community…

And closes with:

My advice to the current eBay team is to take notice of a suggestion I first suggested on September 12, 2005 which was ridiculed at the time by TheStreet.com: "If you take the elements of eBay, including the micro-payments capability of Paypal and, now, the IP-based communications capabilities of Skype, we may be seeing the formation of the next Reuters." And if not Reuters, than at least Brokerage Firm 2.0.

Having attended two eBay Live events and absorbed some of the eBay Reseller culture, my advice to the new CEO is to leverage the eBay relationship by training eBay Resellers on how to use Skype and then let them decide how to build out their Skype ecosystem within the eBay community. As suggested in a post after this year's eBay Live, it starts with education; the Resellers' curiosity and will to learn is there.

Thanks, Jeff. I know the Skype teams will appreciate your support and vision at this time.

Now back to my series on A Primer for Skype's Direction.

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October 02, 2007

A Primer for Skype's Direction -A Backgrounder

To steal a theme from one of the parties in our current Ontario provincial election - Leadership Counts! It has been apparent to many of us who follow Skype that Skype needs to renew its vision, its values and its directions. Providing the necessary leadership awaits the new CEO. In the meantime let's take a look at what Skype and its new CEO has to build on.

The past eighteen months with Skype Journal have given me the opportunity to meet many levels of the Skype team from tech support, development and quality control personnel through to Partner Program managers, Product Line Managers and a couple of Vice Presidents. They are all energetic, enthusiastic employees who want to see Skype succeed, who want to be participants driving a communications revolution but they are crying for leadership with a vision, leadership that can leverage and uncover the full potential of the Skype team members, leadership that can establish values and point Skype towards a sustainably successful business model.

Just as importantly many third party partners have made extensive investments to develop offerings and services that enhance the Skype conversation, especially in business. One of the more enjoyable experiences with Skype Journal has been the opportunity to meet at length with many of these partners and absorb their passion and enthusiasm for supporting Skype and its potential.

I should also mention that 13 years ago I was a member of the management team of a NASDAQ-listed company that successfully turned around the company at the time. I see many parallels for Skype. When I look around Skype I see the foundation and infrastructure from which an appropriately experienced CEO can build for success..

Skype has five primary assets:

  • A brand name, Skype, associated with low-cost worldwide Internet-based telephony
  • A keen, energetic and enthusiastic team of business managers, administrators, developers, program managers, product managers who want to be part of the real time conversation revolution.
  • New products in development (have no idea what they are but there have to be reasons for the beta testers meetings in Prague recently and all those developers working in Talinn and elsewhere).
  • Passionate business partnerships leveraging Skype as a platform for extended services development.
  • A range of licensed hardware platforms that provide a seamless, transparent migration path from legacy PSTN to Skype

Within the Skype ecosystem can be found three core business groups:

Continue reading "A Primer for Skype's Direction -A Backgrounder" »

September 26, 2007

Skype Refreshed ... And Looking Beyond Being a Telco

Just over a month ago a two-day Skype outage caused great consternation with predictions of gloom and doom for Skype. Early yesterday here in California (around 1600GMT) I noticed almost 9.7 million users online -- back to about the same number as peak loads immediately prior to the outage. Somebody out there is continuing to use it; for someone Skype is offering value-add.

Meanwhile Andy Abramson over at VoIP Watch wants Yahoo executives to admit "Yahoo isn't talking." And whither AOL's AIM Phone Line? Om reports on Vonage: How Low Can You Go? And Matt Asay, over at CNet, writes: Swapping Vonage for Skype: One man's search for VoIP that actually works where he starts out with:

Yes, you read the headline right. I have long been a critic of Skype, suggesting that eBay was foolish to buy the VoIP toy and generally ridiculing it as a serious business tool.

Today I'm eating crow, and it tastes great. Why? Because Vonage has been complete rubbish for me, whereas Skype is increasingly approaching perfection. I dropped my traditional phone service for Vonage. I'm now about to drop my traditionally awful Vonage for Skype.

Read Matt's full story about how deterioration of service levels is driving away Vonage customers. (Hat tip to Andy for pointing out this story.) This morning Alec Saunders writes Walks like a telco, talks like a telco.... must be a telco where he discusses why many VoIP companies are dying when they simple try to offer lower cost versions of traditional legacy telco services. And he concludes with (my bold emphasis):

Continue reading "Skype Refreshed ... And Looking Beyond Being a Telco" »

September 24, 2007

Music in 2027?

My breakfast club asked about the future of music; my take.

In twenty years...

We'll be listening through...

  • Wireless ear buds for the poor.
  • Literal ear buds for the middle class (in the ubiquitous Lasik era).
  • Bass-range full-body mods for immersive world players.

Everything touchable/viewable has the option of a sonic identity as printable electronics become free/cheap. This means all goods have theme songs, animation, and spoken (Chinglish?) instructions built in; and we're talking about products, not even their packaging. Early cacophony in retail (all those products talking, singing, emoting) leads to more polite sound triggers and real-time, inter-product/brand negotiation for which gets to play what when and for whom.

Continue reading "Music in 2027?" »

September 21, 2007

From around the neighborhood

At lunch Wednesday with investor James Seng and PhoneGnome founder David Beckemeyer, we wondered:

  • Has anyone earned their money back making Skype-related hardware in the US market?

  • Are mobile, embedded and hybrid Skype phones one order of magnitude too hard for the next 100 million US users? Or two orders too hard?

  • Is the quality of Skype calls really degrading over time? or are customer expectations rising? Keynote research says hard-wired VoIP quality compares favorably with PSTNs. FierceVoIP comments. But no measurement of or comparison with VoIM products like Skype.

  • Who is Skype's spokesperson to the US Spanish-speaking market?

  • Will James' laptop still be in his car after it was towed? (yes, it was.)

Skype Japan signs up A8.net for an affiliate sales program. The better to promote Skype downloads from blogs and other web sites.

Cultural anthropologist Mimi Ito is editing a new series of ethnographic studies of digital culture. I can't wait for the deep dives into how people really use technology. 

Jean Mercier caught Skype's download counter turned off and repaired.

SIPphone launched Gizmo for mobile beta.

Read about this week's Skype for Windows 3.5.0.239 hotfix bugfixes and security improvements. Or just download it.

September 12, 2007

Desktop Collaboration: The Skype Ecosystem Expands

A few days ago I provided an introductory post to the forthcoming series on desktop collaboration offerings that are available as Skype Extras. In this post I simply want to mention the three offerings that will be reviewed along with some additional criteria for the evaluation.

Skype Extras for PC Desktop Collaboration:

Convenos Meeting Center: emulating your conference board room with a slide projector, video monitor, whiteboard and display adapter with screen. A key feature is Convenos' "persistence" capability that allows you to enter and leave the "board room" or conference at will without losing any of the information left in the room.

Unyte: bringing desktop sharing as complementary real time conversation mode to Skype's traditional voice, IM and video modes via a single click. Includes a "Remote Asssist" feature that allows the user to view a remote Windows platform for providing customer presentations and support to, or reviewing documents with, both Skype-enabled and non-Skype-enabled contacts.

And announced today (drum roll for Mac and Linux users): Yugma Skype: full cross platform desktop sharing (Windows, Mac and Linux). Simple swapping of shared desktops and a free offering for up to ten-participant sessions are two key features.

Criteria for evaluation include:

  • User interface
    • Remote viewing: browser-based or independent window
    • Session setup and scheduling
    • Approach to handling different screen sizes
  • Operating System, Web Browser flexibility
  • Extent of Skype integration
  • Sharing Modes
  • Refresh/update speeds at remote participants' desktops
  • Session/conference persistence

If you are looking for a desktop collaboration solution I would suggest you first determine what your needs are, try out all three for compatibility with your needs, identify features within the products that can bring additional productivity and value-add to your activities before making a final decision. All three products offer limited use trial versions and/or a free trial period for the full product.

Other posts in this Skype Extras Collaboration services series

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August 30, 2007

Love, War, and Competing with Skype

A little context for my series about competing with Skype (so far 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108).by Hugh MacLeod -

I love Skype-The-Product.

The company ain't bad either, changing the future of communication these last four years.

What could ruin this? Who is Skype hurting? How might they respond?

Skype and others are fighting this war on many fronts. A few of the spaces, markets, fronts where Skype competes

  • "Unified communications" companies fighting for the enterprise as telephony.
  • Office 2.0, but redefining workplace productivity.
  • Mobile telephony, bringing Skype to purses and pockets, while incumbents defend walled gardens and coopt Wi-Fi.
  • Commerce conversations, where talk augments bargaining and marketplaces.
  • Embedding live talk in web advertising, as content, as sales, and as consumer communities.
  • Adding live talk to online community, enriching relationships.
  • Delivery through embedded devices and ubiquitous computing.
  • Social [software | media | networks | search] connecting people in new ways.
  • Portals embracing live experiences and blending them across their properties.

Wow. One front would be enough, but Skype reaches all of these spaces, and more. Focus (finding it, keeping it, adjusting it) and resource placement becomes harder and more important.

Back to the series...

How are rivals confronting each Skype challenge and opportunity? What tactics and tools are they using? How can these affect Skype? Skype's users? Skype's business and technology ecosystems? Skype's brand and reputation?

I want to explore these questions.

Then, having raised each threat, how can you prepare to defend Skype's business, technology, community? Can Skype lead in a more crowded and ever changing field? Can Skype build on first-mover advantages?

The fate of industries hangs on Skype's responses.

I sometimes think of Skype Journal as war correspondence (without the actual blood, violence, or bodily risk). We cover the grunts and generals, weapons and technologies, skirmishes and theater-wide campaigns, life in wartime, and how the conflict profoundly affects civilians. When we're lucky, we make sense and uncover meaning from the struggle. This series addresses tactics and strategy in this War for the Future of Conversation.  

So, thanks for your support. Pass the ammunition. And keep those war stories coming.

August 26, 2007

Competing against Skype 108: Portal Partner Power

Do you think Skype is a threat to incumbent telcos?

This is eighth in a series outlining tactics telcos have at their disposal to answer the question "If you think Skype is a threat to your telecom profits, how can you compete?"

101: Pricing
102: Lobbying
103: Patent War 
104: Value Chain Denial
105: Tying-up Value Added Resellers
106: Microsoft embraces VoIM
107: Build VoIM into Browsers

Infiltrate Web Sites.
Occupy portal real estate.

Do you want to spread the word of your messaging or telephony product? Tap into the virality of online communities to promote downloads and trigger conversations?

Then you'll invent ways to blend your offering into their user experience.  

Skype works bebo logowith portal partners around the world to show Skype presence for their members and to promote Skype downloads. For example, Bebo partnered with Skype in February 2006 with Skype Me buttons and a download page.

Now, 18 months later, Microsoft's Live teams use their centralized, server-side programming tools to great advantage. Bebo and Microsoft announced their partnership last week.

Points of Portal Integration: What the APIs Allow

First, at parity with Skype, the Windows Live Messenger web services let portals publish simple user presence (online, offline, busy, etc.).

Exposing Windows Live Contacts raises the bar. Using the WLC API and Windows Live Data API, Bebo will be able to add features to their service. They might help you:

"Our agreement with Microsoft Windows Live delivers a powerful, new way to instantly update and keep in touch with friends and serves to make the Bebo user experience even more compelling and interactive."

-- Joanna Shields, President, International at Bebo, from a 21 August 2007 news release

  • Search your WLC friends to see if they are on Bebo.
  • Invite them to be your Bebo friends.
  • Invite your Bebo friends to become Live friends. 
  • Notify you of opportunities to keep your Bebo and WLM buddy lists sync'd. 
  • See updates to their Windows Live profiles in a portal context.  

Messaging and telephony web services help portals enrich user experiences and integrate site

Neither Microsoft nor Skype offer web services to let you:

  • synchronize your mood messages (writing once, publishing both in the client, on the web, and through the API).
  • synchronize data in your profile (like your home page, home town, main phone number, bio photo, etc.), saving re-entry across systems. 
  • launch from a selection of contacts on the portal into a multi-party conversations in text chat or voice/video conference call   
  • blend public text chats and bulletin-board-style web forums

Skype has ten large online partners: Bebo, Chinagate, Jubii, LunarStorm, Onet, OpenBC, Pacnet, PC Home, Six Apart, TOM Online. How many of them are building out their Microsoft Live partnership as we speak?   

Once built, which presence service will be featured in each site's user experience? Which will be magnets for specific subcultures? Which social groups will switch to better serve their communication patterns, to capture their spirit?  

August 23, 2007

A P2P Primer

The infrastructure that allows Skype-to-Skype calls to continue to be free.

Telecom industry veteran and VoIP pioneer Tom Evslin writes an excellent blog covering politics, life in Vermont, technology business issues and occasionally the communications industry. While the rest of us were beating the Skype outage issue to death, Tom was writing a very informative three part series of posts on "P2P - Boon, Boondoggle or Bandwidth Hog?" The trigger for Tom's posts was the BBC's decision to make most of its content available free over the Internet for a limited time after showing using P2P technology. He does reference Skype throughout the series.

I. Introduction: P2P Explanation for non-nerds, Advantages of P2P - Scalability, Survivability, Hardware Economics, Bandwidth Economics (posted August 15 before the outage):

... So the bandwidth needed for both the calls and the call setup is provided by the users. If eBay had to provide all this bandwidth, Skype-to-Skype calls probably wouldn’t be free.

II. The Dark Side: A discussion of the implications for ISP's on a P2P-based application that is "much cheaper FOR THE PROVIDER of the application in terms of hardware and bandwidth required".

It’s the FOR THE PROVIDER part that’s the rub. Let’s consider the case of BBC’s iPlayer service. For a seven days after most broadcasts, UK residents over 16 years old can download the show free and store it 30 days on their PCs for later viewing which can be offline. The current version doesn’t even download ads with the shows.

Sounds great, right? Just what TV should become on the Internet. Not so fast, according to British ISPs.

and, having been posted August 16, it includes a "Timely note: Ironically, as I write this, P2P network Skype is experiencing a rare outage". Read his post for the rest of this "note".

Continue reading "A P2P Primer" »

August 20, 2007

Dialtone is a Promise

Dialtone is a promise.

Please guys, I use Skypeout, I want to rely on it but I can't. If you'd have given more information during this time prehaps I would still be with you, but alas my trust of you is broken.

— martin.porcheron
commenting on a Skype blog

It's the promise of connection. To humanity, to family, to government and social services.

It's a promise your phone will ring when someone calls.

Jesse Robbins Telecoms Sans Frontieres logowrites of Telecoms Sans Frontières (Telecommunications without Borders) restoring phone networks in post-earthquake Peru. Keeping that promise, keeping people connected.

Here in the United States, massive deregulation dismantled our payphone networks. When we have our own earthquakes (I live two kilometers from the Hayward fault), storms and other disasters, payphones are often the only landline phones we can reach, the only phones that may work. Payphones are vanishing from the American landscape because of the false assumptions that mobile networks are as reliable as landline networks and that every person has a mobile phone. 

Telephony is even more central to developing communities where billions of people have never made their first telephone call.

And we use Skype. Billions of minutes called. Not to mention Skype IM, one of the most popular text chats on Earth.

So the dialtone promise matters.

Skype broke this promise last week.

Skype's motto for years was "It just works."  

Mostly.

Your landline phone company defined the dialtone promise. They make that promise by owning and operating all the parts.

Skype's network is not like a local telco. Skype depends on the kindness and infrastructure of strangers. On PCs, their processors and memory, their Internet connectivity, their electricity, their ISPs. 

Can Skype keep the dialtone promise? Or must Skype define a new "Internet dialtone" that acknowledges the new reality? 

Skype hedges their dialtone promise with cautions

"Skype is not a replacement for your ordinary telephone and Can't be used for emergency calling."

It's fine print.

  • Do people read it?
  • Do they believe it?
  • Is this enough to set expectations appropriately?
  • What should users learn about Skype and this service category from the outage?  

Brands are promises too.

What has this breach, this 48 hour breach, this one thousandth of Skype's life, what has this breach done to Skype's brand?

August 06, 2007

If Google pays me to find local businesses, should Skype?

$10 bounty per new U.S. Google Local business, as a Google Business Referral Representative. gSpy summarizes the program.

Unlike SkypeFind, Google's directory is pre-populated with data. Google is paying people to add local detail, like store photos and hours of operation, and to sign businesses to a formal relationship, leading to advertising down the road.

Maybe it's more than that. Maybe it's putting a human, personal, neighborhood face on Google.

July 31, 2007

FCC votes today, Skype glad FCC considering 'openness,' a far cry from 'delamination'

Norman Rockwell's painting: Freedom of Speech, February 20, 1943

The FCC votes today.

UPDATE 3: Gigi Sohn of Public Knowledge writes: "It voted to require just two of the four open access conditions; open devices and open applications."

UPDATE 2: FCC voted FOR "Open Networks" and enforcement of Carterfone on the C-block part of the spectrum. YES to "Open Applications" (any software) and "Open Devices" (any gadget). NO to "Open Services" (wholesaling of bandwidth). YES on Public Safety provisions.

I've avoided writing about the Google wireless-net-neutrality and Skype Carterfone FCC issues. So much is at stake, today's vote shaping America's wireless communication environment, our civil liberties, public safety, and the competitiveness or our economy. I'm also reluctant since he language of telecom regulation is new to me.

Fact is, it scares my pants off. AT&T and its kin want to control access to Internet content the way cable companies choose what stations you see.

For all you global Skype Journal readers, this is an American story. Our strange politics are never more complicated, intricate or involved than at the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. The FCC regulates U.S. broadcast television and telecommunication.

So let's put this into two parts:

  • a recap of recent events (Skype and Google advocating for consumer freedoms) and
  • what we can do (short term support, longer term 'delamination').

The short version of the story so far:

  1. The Big Bundle. Nearly all US mobile phone service comes bundled with a phone and a multi-year contract.

    • Because of this the average American must wait for two years to upgrade, unlike Japan and parts of China where many people buy new phones a few times every year.

    • The phones provided are often crippled, removing features.

    • Mobile phone companies don't compete on service and price, but on the bundle of service, price, and subsidized hardware.

  2. February 2007 - Skype Carterfone. Skype's Chris Libertelli filed the five page "Carterfone Petition" 20 February 2007. ("Petition to Confirm a Consumer’s Right to Use Internet Communications Software and Attach Devices to Wireless Networks, RM-11361" pdf).

    • It asked the FCC to adopt a policy that anyone could attach anything to any mobile/wireless network so long as that thing does not hurt the network. So you can buy your phone and your service separately. So you may keep your phone when you switched services.

    • "Carterfone" was a similar ruling from the 1960s. It allows you to plug any phone into a landline, so long as you do not hurt the network. It worked well, created new technologies, new markets and didn't hurt the phone companies at all.

    • The FCC promptly posted Skype's petition for public comment.

  3. Comment came.

    • Lots. I killed my inkjet printing out hundreds of pages pro and con. I still haven't read all the reams. You could tell the citizen comments (a few sentences or paragraphs, often with typos) from the lobbyists for Skype-Carterfone and the Google-Four-Conditions (a few, succinct pages) from the lobbyists representing the status quo (between white paper to novella length, with tables, charts, footnotes, citations of precedent, and a unique blend of FCCish, managementspeak, and dogma).

    • Love it, Hated it.

      • Citizens who want unlocked phones: Freedom to shop, please.

      • Companies that stand to gain: This will be a boon to our free market system, a thousand innovations will bloom, make us competitive in the world, the consumer can only gain.

      • Companies that stand to lose: Don't mess with the cash flow that builds our national telecom infrastructure. Wireless Carterfone will cut spectrum value, costing taxpayers. Some of these were extraordinarily detailed and long, serious money spent on consultants. Many appealed to laissez faire doctrine, essentially telling the FCC that it was incapable of regulating without hurting consumers or industry.

    • Lobbyists too. Complete with astroturf and distortions.

    • You can "vote" for or against Skype's FCC petition. Reference proceeding number RM-11361 here and show your support with your comment. Be sure to sign your comments.

  4. Friends showed up to fight the wireless walled garden. Google. Some phone makers. Civil rights, consumer groups, and Net Neutrality groups. The fight moves from D.C. to mainstream media.

    • On a recent Forum, a public radio talk show, Skype's Chris Libertelli and Craig Aaron, communications director for Free Press, took on Declan McCullagh, senior writer for news.com on CNET, and Joe Farren, assistant vice president for public affairs at CTIA, The Wireless Association. Download (MP3)

      "Farren contended that the upcoming spectrum auction is being rigged to favor Google, calling it "Silicon Valley welfare." Phone calls from listeners to the show uniformly favored upholding net neutrality." - John Dorsey

    • Google calls for Four Conditions (reminding me of Roosevelt's Four Freedoms). Eric Schmidt pledges Google to meet the auction's $4.6 billion reserve price if the FCC orders:

      1. Open applications: Consumers should be able to download and utilize any software applications, content, or services they desire;

      2. Open devices: Consumers should be able to utilize a handheld communications device with whatever wireless network they prefer;

      3. Open services: Third parties (resellers) should be able to acquire wireless services from a 700 MHz licensee on a wholesale basis, based on reasonably nondiscriminatory commercial terms; and

      4. Open networks: Third parties (like internet service providers) should be able to interconnect at any technically feasible point in a 700 MHz licensee’s wireless network.

  5. Wholesale wireless Internet, please. Google asked for one more thing: compel whoever gets this new spectrum to become a common carrier, letting others buy bandwidth and resell it.

David Weinberger writes that we must take a much bigger step: Delaminate the Bastards! Net Neutrality is necessary but not sufficient.

Peel apart the layers like a piece of rotting plywood.

The first layer will be for companies that want to provide access to the Internet. We'll pay them to let us attach a computer, cell phone or any other device — even a Princess Phone, once we get it all VoIPed up — to the Internet and begin to send and receive bits. As many bits as we want. All bits treated equally. The companies can compete over price, bandwidth, uptime, and other properties of the network.

The upper layer will be for companies that want to provide content and services using the Internet.

The health of these two layers is reciprocal: Customers will use more bits because there are more services and content available to them in the next layer. There will be more services and content because the market now has lots of bandwidth, enough to handle new types of applications.

This is exactly the business architecture our economy, democracy and culture are thirsting for. We want to have companies competing to sell us more, better, faster access to the connected world. We want the services and the content — the things we can do, the ideas we can discuss — to grow like a crazy, bottom-up Renaissance.

This is the business architecture we'd have come up with if we had implemented the Internet from scratch. It mirrors the Internet's own architecture. It is the only one that removes the temptations to turn the Internet into cable TV.

David vs. Goliath? or Henry Ford vs. Buggy Makers?

Skype's news release and Skype's latest filing to Chairman Martin follow.


PRESS STATEMENT:

SKYPE REITERATES SUPPORT FOR “OPENNESS” PRINCIPLES FOR WIRELESS INTERNET

WASHINGTON, July 10, 2007 – In a letter filed with the FCC today, Skype reiterated its support for ‘open wireless internet services’ based on the Federal Communication Commission’s landmark 1968 Carterfone decision. The filing takes place just one day prior to a hearing before the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet on the subject of ‘Wireless Innovation and Consumer Protection.’

“Skype is encouraged by various reports suggesting that the Chairman of the FCC is seriously considering ‘openness’ principles for wireless services in the context of the upcoming spectrum auction,” said Christopher Libertelli, Skype’s senior director of Government and Regulatory Affairs. “We look forward to working with the Chairman, the other Commissioners and the Commission's staff to ensure that Carterfone principles identified in our Petition become part of the Commission’s final rules.”

In February of this year, Skype filed a petition with the FCC to confirm a consumer’s right to use Internet communications software and attach devices to wireless networks. This petition sought to unlock the benefits of wireless price competition and innovation, while ensuring that consumers would retain a right to run the applications of their choosing and attach all non-harmful devices to any wireless network. The petition has subsequently gained support from consumer groups, high-tech industry trade associations, entrepreneurs and more than 4,000 individual consumers.

About Skype

Skype sets conversations free by providing new and easy ways to stay in touch over the internet. Millions of people every day make free Skype-to-Skype voice and video calls and send instant messages using our software. Some pay a little per minute for long-distance and international calls to phones and mobiles and for SMS, voicemail and call forwarding, or they buy subscriptions that give unlimited calls nationwide.

We certify and sell hundreds of hardware products from more than 50 partners and work with third-party developers to create software to extend Skype’s functionality. Skype has been downloaded more than half a billion times and over 196 million people from almost every corner of the globe have registered. Skype is an eBay company (NASDAQ: EBAY), and you can learn more and get Skype at www.skype.com.

Access to a broadband Internet connection is required for Skype and all Skype Certified devices and accessories. Skype is not a replacement for your traditional telephone service and cannot be used for emergency calling.

Skype, SkypeIn, SkypeOut, Skype Me, Skype Certified, Skypecasts, associated logos and the “S” symbol are trademarks of Skype Limited.


Skype Communications Sarl
15 rue Notre Dame,
L-2240 Luxembourg
www.skype.com

July 10, 2007

ELECTRONIC FILING

Chairman Kevin J. Martin
Federal Communications Commission
445 12th Street, SW
Washington, DC 20554

Re: Service Rules for the 690-746, 747-762, and 777-792 MHz Bands, WC Docket No. 06-150, WC Docket No. 06-129; PS Docket No. 06-229; WT Docket No. 96-86

Ex Parte

Dear Chairman Martin:

The promise of an open, mobile Internet stirs up the entrepreneurial spirit. Skype Communications Sarl (“Skype”), on behalf of its users, believes that this entrepreneurship lies in the hands of a community of developers, consumers and technologists; it is not the exclusive preserve of the network operators. This community is ready to deliver an explosion of new mobile products if the Commission sets its policy correctly. In our view, the best course for the Commission is to adopt 700 MHz auction rules that balance the interests of network operators and innovative software developers like Skype. Such a policy will maximize the value of the 700 MHz spectrum and is in the best interest of consumers. To that end, Skype appreciates the Commission’s willingness to consider issues related to device competition and Internet openness in the context of its upcoming 700 MHz auction – a policy discussion in which Skype has been an active participant.1

This letter follows up on that discussion and further explains Skype’s interest in this proceeding.

As the Commission knows, Skype is a software company, not a telecommunications carrier. Skype does not own or control any telecommunications facilities. Instead, Skype relies upon network partners who themselves are telecommunications carriers, to enable Skype users to communicate over the Internet, share ‘presence’ information online, make video calls, transfer money between users or call ordinary phones.2

Like many other Internet companies, Skype collaborates with an ecosystem of software and hardware partners to maximize the capabilities of our software. At the access layer, for example, Skype has joined forces with wireless operators in Europe and Asia who extend Skype into a mobile environment.3

I. Competition Among Wireless Networks

Consistent with this business model, Skype does not intend to transform itself into a telecommunications carrier by bidding for spectrum in the 700 MHz auction. In our view, consumer benefits are advanced when each ecosystem partner performs a function it does best. Our European and Asian wireless carrier partners specialize in building and operating networks, enabling Skype to focus on what it does best: innovating and building software that enables the world’s conversations. Skype is therefore participating in this proceeding on behalf of our users, who might subscribe to the Internet access services provided in the 700 MHz band.

New technologies enable new applications, and in our experience, new entrants are more likely to deploy new technologies. Skype is a member of the Coalition for 4G in America because we believe that new entry is a necessary but not sufficient precondition to promote innovation and lower prices for consumers.4

We urge the Commission to avoid defining the objectives of the 700 MHz proceeding too narrowly.

Multiple providers of facilities-based wireless services, at least in theory, increase the possibility that competition will spur carriers to innovate with new business models.

However, at present the wireless market is dominated by a few large players, and competition between incumbent network providers — all of whom have mixed incentives to encourage VoIP-based competition — is insufficient to maximize consumer benefits in the mobile market. The Commission’s goal for the 700 MHz proceeding should not be simply to introduce additional competitors who have the same incentives to thwart device and application competition. Seen in this light, an increased number of intermodal competitors is a necessary but not sufficient condition to maximize consumer welfare in wireless.5

A better, more balanced policy outcome is one that encourages a cycle of investment in networks and in applications that consumers use on those networks. This is best achieved through Carterfone principles — permitting consumers to use wireless devices and applications of their choice — and wholesale alternatives throughout the wireless industry. To achieve this qualitative shift in the wireless marketplace, the Commission should design its 700 MHz auction to better balance the interests of carriers, their subscribers and the myriad of device and application enterprises that hold the promise of offering new products and content.

Specifically, the record demonstrates that large license blocks, such as a 22 MHz REAG Block in the Upper 700 MHz band proposed by the Coalition for 4G in America, can facilitate new entry without denying smaller carriers spectrum — if those large spectrum blocks carry appropriate conditions to facilitate competitive bidders. In Skype’s view, the surest way to promote wireless competition would be to ensure that all of the 700 MHz spectrum — or, at minimum, the 22 MHz REAG block — is auctioned under both “open access” rules and the “openness” principles described in the following section. There are also a number of additional steps the Commission can take to prevent the largest incumbents from winning the REAG licenses, thereby promoting network-level competition. These include adoption of anonymous bidding and the application of spectrum caps to the largest licenses. Should the Commission not adopt a spectrum cap, the Commission should opt for a band plan that maximizes the number of potential new-entrant bidders — or face the risk of losing any chance at robust competition resulting from this auction.

II. Competition Among Devices and Applications

Skype recently filed a petition — commonly known as the “Carterfone” Petition — seeking application of the Commission’s Broadband Policy principles to wireless broadband operators in order to bring the full benefit of competition and innovation to consumers of wireless broadband devices and software applications. As we made clear in our Petition, there is a growing list of discriminatory and anticompetitive practices occurring in the wireless world, whereby users are denied the opportunity to use desired applications.6

These carrier practices are stifling innovation by depriving entrepreneurs of incentives to build creative new applications and content. With regard to the 700 MHz auction, however, the Commission has a unique opportunity to inject some needed competition into the wireless market.

That is why Skype has urged the Commission to apply its time-honored Carterfone principles to all wireless networks operating in the CMRS bands.7

Doing so will maximize consumer benefits and unlock new sources of innovation and price competition. A number of parties in this proceeding have submitted comments arguing for various device and application layer “openness” principles. In our view, the Carterfone “openness” principle is captured by the Commission’s Broadband Policy Statement. If the Commission decides to diverge from that Policy Statement, we urge the FCC to adopt an “openness” principle that protects both a consumer’s right to attach unlocked devices and run applications of their choosing.8

An enforceable Broadband Policy Statement applied to wireless networks is a necessary pre-requisite to a wireless Internet ecosystem that maximizes the value of the 700 MHz bands and CMRS services in general.

We will not repeat the importance of this proceeding to the Commission’s broadband policy and to the interests of innovators such as Skype. We understand that you share this view with us. For our part, we are committed to developing new software applications that delight our users. It is our hope that when the 700 MHz auction concludes and these networks are built, Skype users with have an additional choice for their Internet access services and the applications that run atop increasingly powerful mobile computing devices.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any further questions or if Skype can be of any further assistance in this proceeding.

Christopher Libertelli
Senior Director
Government and Regulatory Affairs
Skype Communications Sarl

1. Skype is a member of the Coalition for 4G in America. See Comments of the Coalition for 4G in America, WT Docket No. 06-150 (May 23, 2007). See also Skype Communications S.A.R.L., Petition to Confirm a Consumer’s Right to Use Internet Communications Software and Attach Devices to Wireless Networks, RM-11361 (filed Feb. 20, 2007) (“Skype Petition”); Reply Comments of Skype Communications S.A.R.L., RM-11361 (May 15, 2007) (“Skype Reply Comments”).

2. When a Skype user purchases paid services, these carrier partners allow a communication that might remain completely online to terminate to an ordinary mobile or fixed-line telephone.

3. For a description of the mobile collaboration between Skype and Hutchinson “3”, see http://xseries.three.com/index.shtml.

4. Skype Petition at 24-25.

5. See Barbara van Schewick, Toward and Economic Framework for Network Neutrality Regulation, 5 J. on Telecomm. & High Tech. L. 329, 368-78 (2007).

6. Skype Petition at 17-20.

7. Skype Reply Comments at 11-15.

8. Id.


July 29, 2007

Problematic precedents and mangled metaphors

I’m moving house, business is booming, we’re running a complex project, and I’m travelling a lot. Oh, and two kids and a wife who are hinting they’d like to see more of me. Plus I can’t live without some occasional time off and fun too. I don’t have any spare time for much right now, but this one is too important not to comment on, so I’ll break my long radio silence.

Susan Crawford, one of the sharpest knives in the telecoms policy drawer, reports on the 700MHz spectrum auctions in the US. (Susan, for some reason Blogware refuses to display pages when the referrer is Bloglines — get ‘em to fix it :) ) — she has several follow-up posts worth reading.

The nub of the issue is whether the auction should mandate some kind of open access regime where users can attach any device of their choosing to the wireless network, not just ones approved by the carrier who supplies the retail connectivity. This is (misleadingly, in my opinion) referred to as a wireless equivalent of the famous Carterfone decision that heralded the break-up of the vertically integrated AT&T landline monopoly (rev 1.0). (Susan’s just reporting the proceedings, not advocating the terminology, so I’m just pointing you that way for the succinct background material.)

I don’t think the Carterfone precedent is an apt one for wireless IP networks. The fixed network provided an end point with metered access to a (then) noticeably capacity-limited circuit-switched network. You could attach a device with a radically different usage profile (e.g. a dial-up modem, fax machine) and you’d automatically carry the cost of that usage yourself. The network also offered a single line speed at the edge — you couldn’t demand more (at least not without a massive price leap to a business-class T1 line or more). Metering based on time alone works well.

Continue reading "Problematic precedents and mangled metaphors" »

July 19, 2007

Q2 financials: Skype in costly trouble

By every metric, Skype continues its midflight stall. Despite doing bunches of things right, Skype's core value is dying.

Skypers aren't calling any more now than they were before. SkypeOut minutes didn't change. Free Skype-to-Skype calling fell this quarter, back to where it was a year ago.

That's scary! Read it again:

  • SkypeOut minutes didn't change.

  • Free Skype-to-Skype calling fell this quarter, back to where it was a year ago.

Skype's brand is tied to talk.

Better, cheaper, more fun, less hassle.

Does "It just works" still work for word-of-mouth marketing?

Skype desperately needs word of mouth to keep the cost of customer acquisition low and to reach clusters of people that talk with each other.

Flat growth turns regional growth into a zero-sum game. With flat Skype-to-Skype growth, a minute gained in one market equals a minute lost elsewhere. In which markets is Skype losing ground? Where are defectors going? 

The signups aren't enough to cover churn. 24 million new user accounts in Q2 looks amazing, doesn't it? 183 signups a minute, 263k new accounts a day. But...

Thi