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Monday, March 29, 2010

Skype is in Verizon Company Stores

Verizon's go-to-market teams had Skype in place last week.

  • Employees were oriented. Six months' ago these same employees had never tried Skype. Now they know a few talking points.
  • Demo Blackberry and Android phones had Skype installed and easy to find
  • Local test accounts with contacts were created for each demo phone
  • Information cards for the phones were updated with Skype listed as a feature of each phone (right above Bluetooth!)
  • A small Skype sign was with the phones
  • The in-store phone selector software now lists Skype as one feature among many.
  • Inventory comes with a shortcut to install the latest version of Skype mobile for Verizon, a thin client.

Seven things to improve:

  1. Preload the whole Skype client, not just a download link. Conversion rates are much higher with a full preload.
  2. International positioning. "Call your family" in Spanish, Tagalog, Chinese, Korean, Ethiopian and Portuguese (my neighborhood) on store-front posters.
  3. Unbury Skype. Show Skype on the first page in the phone selector.
  4. Enroll. "What Skype name would you like to use with your new phone?" in the check-out procedure.
  5. Top up. Accept payments for Skype credits in the store.
  6. Educate. Data sheets and flyers for customers to take, explaining Skype, Skype mobile, Skype To Go, Calling Plans, and how Skype mobile is different from Skype on PCs or iSkype.
  7. Front of store posters showing video calling (whoops, not this year)

Great rollout to the company-owned stores. Now to check the reseller channel.

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Monday, March 8, 2010

23 million Skype users log in at the same time

20100308: 23 million Skype users online

Skype hit a new high watermark for user activity today: 23 million people logged in to the Skype network at the same time.

Skype dialtone - 23 million simulataneous online

Skype should reach 26 million concurrent by the end of the year, barring any major improvements in distribution or marketing.

Dialtone is the most useful measure we have of Skype's capacity. The more people who use Skype, the more valuable Skype is to all the users. Skype's capacity for network effect is driven by the number of people with accounts times the percent of the day they are available for incoming calls.

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Skype for Kindle? No way, says Amazon.

Skype for KindleWouldn't it be cool to have book readers that could IM and offer presence? Maybe take or make phone calls? Now that Amazon announced it will open its Kindle book readers to third party developers, Skype could build an app for this new platform.

No it can't. Amazon warns "Voice over IP functionality, advertising, offensive materials, collection of customer information without express customer knowledge and consent, or usage of the Amazon or Kindle brand in any way are not allowed."

I can think of three reasons for this ban:

  1. Amazon is worried about using up a year's worth of data plan with one long phone call.
  2. Amazon contracted to ban VoIP at the request of its mobile carriers.
  3. Amazon wants to reserve VoIP for a future Kindle product. The Amazon phone?

Kindles have a mobile phone built in and a lifetime data plan, apparently a dream VoIP device (although better speakers, a microphone, and a webcam would be nice). Amazon will require apps to pay for data transfers at $0.15 per megabyte. So I'm betting Amazon is most concerned with keeping the costs of their mobile plan affordable for users.

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Monday, January 18, 2010

Skype Dialtone: 22 million online.

22,268,233 Skype clients logged in at the same time, up from the 21.5 million record last Monday.

22 Million Simultaneous Skype Users Online

Here's the updated trendline going back from the beginning.

22 Million Simultaneous Skype Users Online

While a straight line explains 97% of the data, a polynomial regression fit gets us to 99%. The curve guesses 26 million people online at the same time by year's end. This on a base of more than 520 million user accounts.

My crude estimate puts active Skype users, people who log in over a two week period, about 132 million. This allows for different time zones and for people who use Skype for very short sessions during a month.

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Monday, January 11, 2010

Skype Dialtone: 21.5 million simultaneous online – new record

21 Million Simultaneous Skype Users Online

Dialtone is a promise. It's the promise of connection. To humanity, to family, to government and social services. It's a promise your phone will ring when someone calls. 

Skype Journal,
20 August 2007

Skype's dialtone continues to grow. 21.5 million people were logged in on Skype's network Monday, 11 January. Compare this to Tencent's QQ instant messenger network, boasting a dialtone of 75.5 million at the end of 2009q3.

Skype's dialtone reached 20 million on November 9, 2009. That puts growth at 25K more people getting online daily, net of people who leave the network, in the last 63 days.

How fast is that growth? If everyone at the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show signed up during its four days, they'd be skyping by now.

 

This continues a fairly linear trend.

21 Million Simultaneous Skype Users Online

Skype's dialtone is a product of:

  • The number of people with accounts.
  • The amount of time they spend logged in on any given day or over week.

Dialtone is good for Skype. It measures the chances that someone you know (or someone you don't know) is available to talk. Dialtone shows the strength of Skype's network effects, its capacity.

Skype encourages dialtone growth with every strategy. Device choice, so you connect how you like. Wi-Fi access, so you connect wherever you are. Usability so people stay connected and use the network. Skype for Business, so people use Skype even more at work.

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Monday, January 4, 2010

CES2010: Skype for Television

Skype for Television - Panasonic

The user interface is very similar to the ASUS video phone. I'll have more for you from CES tomorrow. For now, here's their blog post, the @skypeonyourtv twitter page, and text from Skype's news release:

Skype-enabled Televisions

Skype is already renowned for popularizing video calling and bringing people closer together through rich, real-time communication. With Skype embedded into Internet-connected HDTVs, the company is creating a new experience that will allow people to communicate from the comfort of their living rooms.

The new HDTVs will deliver familiar Skype features including:

  • Free Skype-to-Skype voice and video calls
  • Calls to landline or mobile phones at Skype’s low rates
  • The option to receive inbound calls via a user’s online Skype number
  • Skype voicemail, if it is set up
  • Being invited to participate in voice conference calls with up to 24 other parties
  • Support for up to 720p HD video calls, depending on the availability of high-speed broadband
  • and a HD webcam

At CES, Skype announced partnerships with LG and Panasonic to offer Skype–enabled HDTVs. Skype software will be embedded into Panasonic’s line of 2010 VIERA CAST-enabled HDTVs and LG’s 26 new LCD and plasma HDTVs with NetCast Entertainment Access™. Both lines are expected to be available in mid-2010. Both LG and Panasonic will offer specially-designed HD webcams that are optimized for Skype video calls as separate accessories that can be plugged into the televisions.

These webcams support 720p HD and include special microphones and optics that can pick up sound and video from a couch-distance.

“The popularity of Skype video calling has increased substantially in recent years with an average of 34% of Skype-to-Skype calls now including video,” added Silverman. “For many people who are video calling on Skype, they have expressed a desire to communicate with their friends and family from somewhere comfortable, and preferably on a big screen. Logically, this led to the development of Skype embedded on HDTVs.”

Skype recommends uninterrupted high-speed broadband of at least 1 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth to achieve 720p HD-quality video calls on either a PC or television.

For more information about Skype-enabled televisions, please visit skype.com/go/TV or view a demonstration during CES at the Panasonic (Central 9405) or LG (Central 8205) booths.

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Friday, November 6, 2009

Sold! The bullets

Skype Sold

  1. The deal values Skype at $2.75 billion.
  2. Index is out, freeing up 2.4% of the equity.
  3. Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis are in.
  4. They are contributing Joltid software for 10% of the company.
  5. They are paying $83 million for 4% of the company (a discount, since that would value the $2.08 billion).
  6. They are dropping the ugly lawsuits.
  7. eBay will keep 30%, instead of 35%.
  8. eBay still gets $1.9 billion cash.
  9. Silver Lake, Andreessen Horowitz, and other investors will own 56%, down from 65%.
  10. This values the Joltid IP at $275 million.

This begs the question: Why didn't Meg Whitman buy the Joltid IP when it was vastly cheaper in 2005? In 2005 the only market for the Global Index was to iffy music sharing services without a business model.

Congrats to all for this stage being over. So will Skype's next big liquidity event be an IPO or a merger? If M&A, with whom?

eBay's release:

Nov 6, 2009

eBay Inc.

eBay Inc. and Silver Lake Investor Group Settle Skype Litigation with Joltid Limited

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) today announced that the investor group led by Silver Lake, which had previously entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a majority stake in Skype from the company, has reached a settlement agreement with Joltid Limited and Joost N.V. that gives Skype ownership over all software previously licensed from Joltid and ends all litigation currently pending against the investor group and eBay at the closing of the acquisition.

As part of the settlement agreement, Joltid and Skype founders Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis will join the investor group, contributing Joltid software and making a significant capital investment in exchange for a 14 percent stake in Skype. As a result, Silver Lake and other investors including Andreessen Horowitz and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), will together hold 56 percent of Skype and eBay will retain 30 percent. As previously announced, eBay will receive approximately $1.9 billion in cash upon the completion of the sale and a note from the buyer in the principal amount of $125 million. The deal, which values Skype at $2.75 billion and is not subject to a financing condition, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2009.

“Skype will be well positioned to move forward under new owners with ownership and control over its core technology,” said eBay Inc. President and CEO John Donahoe. “At the same time, eBay continues to retain a significant stake in Skype and will benefit from its continued growth. We look forward to closing the deal and focusing on growing our core ecommerce and payments businesses.”

Commenting on the agreement on behalf of the investor group, Silver Lake Managing Director Egon Durban said: "We are very pleased to have the litigation resolved. We remain confident in a great future for Skype, and we look forward to working with Niklas, Janus and the other investors as partners to help the company achieve its full potential."

The investor group will no longer include Index Ventures, which has withdrawn from participation. Commenting on its decision to withdraw, Danny Rimer of Index Ventures, said: "We are pleased that Skype will now be able to put litigation behind it, and we wish Josh Silverman, his team and the Skype investors well in continuing to grow a great business. Although Skype has the potential to be a great investment, the deal terms changed for Index such that it no longer matches our investment criteria and thus we have decided not to participate in the transaction."

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

How much gold do you pay pirates?

piratesThey came for fortune but were keelhauled and made to walk the plank. Now Skype's founders are back in a small fast ship, ready to sink her if they don't get paid. Do you fight to defend the S.S. Skype? Can you bribe the scoundrels and trust them to leave? Or do you bend, take them on as partners, and suffer them so you can put back to sea?

What do the two sides bring to the parley?

The Captain Z and Mister Friis wield barristers and silver. They sued Skype over the software license, swearing oaths were broken, blood is due, and Skype should be dry-docked until treasure is paid. They sued the new investment team, claiming keys to Joltid's treasure were smuggled from Joost's lockbox to key investors. And they lugged a treasure chest of cash and promises for outright ownership.

eBay and the Capitalists race to safer waters. Skype's quartermasters slaved for months to replace Skype's sails with sheets of their own making. Skype's lawyers dispute each scurvy claim and denounce them. It looks like prevailing winds for Skype's lawyers but fate, the courts, and codemongers are uncertain. 

Can eBay buy their absence cheaply this winter? Are you better off swashbuckling until a verdict comes next summer? Would you throw the Index Capitalists overboard, making room for the Dane and Swede at the Captain's Table? Could you ever turn your back once they were aboard?

The tale comes to this. Would you make a deal with the Devil himself to save your ship a battle? Or can you chart a course for open seas that leaves the pirates adrift in your wake?

Bonus Clue: Are the pirates on retainer in a grander scheme? Who benefits if Skype fails? Who would pay two billion dollars to shut Skype down?

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

Pop quiz: What kind of Pirate are you?

BusinessWeek Book review: Piracy as Innovation Strategy: Can illegal copies provide inspiration? "Matt Mason, a former London deejay and the founder of RWD, a popular British magazine, argues for piracy as a business model rather than a threat. In his new book, The Pirate's Dilemma, he discusses the history of piracy--and how it drives innovation"

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Monday, November 2, 2009

A busy week ahead

My calendar's full and to do list is overflowing. Monday's full moon brings the Social Web Camp at Sun Microsystems in Santa Clara with members of the W3C's Social Web Incubator group, Enterprise 2.0 in San Francisco's Moscone (#e2conf), ApacheCon in my home town of Oakland, VoiceCon (#voicecon) in San Francisco (Skype will be on a Thursday cloud communications panel and exhibiting), and this week's Yi-Tan community call is about High Performance Organizations.

Tuesday starts with a DataPortability Project Steering Meeting, and the ninth Internet Identity Workshop starts (#iiw), the group that gave you OpenID and oAuth through the best of unconferences.

e2conf, iiw, voicecon, and apachecon continue on Wednesday, joined by Cisco and Vonage quarterly earnings conference calls, ad:tech New York, and Google Wave API Office Hours.

The cons (and uncons) continue on Guy Fawkes Thursday. Afterward, get your hack on at the Ning Hackathon in Palo Alto.

The Skype Journal review bin has the new Vodburner, Pamela 4.6, IPEVO's Point 2 View usb camera, the ASUS Videophone Touch AiGuru SV1T, the two-year-old Skype certified Yamaha USB Microphone Speaker (PSG-01S), and an amazing Marshall desk microphone, the MXL AC-404 USB Portable Conference Mic. This round is all about High Quality audio and video going in and out of Skype.

Sometime soon I get to give Don Kennedy a destination for his promised Skype app code sprint. I've picked a project and a winner. Now I have to turn the wish into a spec and post the results.

Notes to self:

The Bay Bridge is still shut down. Pack the power squid. Must. Prioritize. Sleep.

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Monday, October 5, 2009

New high watermark: 19 million concurrent users with Skype dialtone

Guest post by Jean Mercier, the Skype Numerologist

Skype dialtone 19 million simultaneous users logged in to the Skype network

Only three weeks, Skype dialtone 19 millionand the second time this year that Skype adds a million concurrent users online in only 3 weeks, (this is a record speed) and also the fifth million milestone this year, another absolute record. And the growth goes on despite competing products, lawsuits, new owners, eBay, police and intelligence agencies threats and unhappiness, ...

19 million people have Skype dial tone at the same time

I am really interested to see the quarterly results of Skype within eBay, and perhaps one of my previous earnings predictions will be way too low.

Skype dial tone: 17 million simultaneous online, 23 March 2009.

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Friday, September 11, 2009

Skype Eats More Young: RIP Skype's software developers relations program.

So Long and thanks for all the fish

Skype clients have APIs. Thousands of developers wrote Mac, Windows, and Linux software controlling a Skype client through the API. Call recording, desktop sharing, games, commerce; thousands of products.

While Skype will maintain the API, the developer relations program around it is over. The commerce component: Dead. "Skype Certified" software: Dead. Support: Dead.

Skype will continue to engineer the communications API.

They won't help you promote your software.
They won't help you test and improve your software.
They won't help you co-brand your software.
They won't help you distribute your software.
They won't help you sell your software.
They won't help you process payments.
They won't help you keep up to date on API changes.

Not that they'd executed terribly well on these in the past.

But that's what they're defunding.

Presumably all that energy and money will go into a new program for developers. Skype moved some of its devrels people to new teams, some to a team working on the public version of Skype's future cloud communications platform.

Was there a good reason to kill off the old program before the new one was up? Skype won't say. Will the old community fare poorly on the new platform? Does the current community of developers not build a million dollars in yearly value to the Skype brand? Do these developers have anywhere else to turn?

This Dear John letter went out today to registered developers along with a blog post saying much the same thing

Subject: The future of Skype Extras Program
From: [Someone at Skype]

Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:52:23 +0100

Dear Sir/Madam,

I am contacting you on behalf of the Skype Extras Program.

Unfortunately I have to announce that the Skype Extras program will be shut down, effective September 11rd 2009.  Despite the incredible breadth of Extras developed for Skype, simply not enough people were using them to justify our continued support of the Extras program.  It was a tough decision for us, but we want to ensure that we prioritize our time and resources to deliver our core products such as voice and video, expanding Skype among business users, and expanding Skype into mobile and other platforms. The following changes will be effective from September 11th onwards:

  • We have decided that we will no longer certify new Extras. However, all existing Extras will stay certified until their expiration dates and all unused test tickets will be reimbursed.
  • We will continue to distribute applications through the existing Extras Manager in Skype for Windows but will no longer add new Extras to the Extras Manager.
  • All public API documents will continue to be maintained Skype will also support accessories via the Public API.
  • The Skype Shop <http://shop.skype.com/extras/>  will continue to support the currently listed Extras

This decision also influences the payment terms that are currently in place. After December 11, Skype will no longer allow the use of Skype credit by 3rd Party Extras developers. A final invoice detailing the full amount of the gross revenue received from Skype users must be submitted within 45 days of this date. After the 25th of January, Skype will no longer be able to process publisher invoices.

We understand the impact that this decision will have on our community. If you have any additional questions regarding the payment terms or any of the other listed changes please don't hesitate to contact me.

Best Regards,

See also: Alec Saunders' Go Big, or Go Home. But Please, Spare Us The Whinging….

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Thomas Howe leaves Jaduka, retakes Voice Mashup King status

Thomas Howe left his CEO role at Jaduka a few weeks ago, leaving the VoIP platform company in the capable hands of COO Jack Rynes. Thomas is back filling demand for Communications Enhanced Business Processes (CEBP) from his Cape Cod office.

We'll see Howe at the Emerging Communications Conference in Amsterdam next month, the Telco 2.0 Executive Brainstorm in London after that. Here's his talk from the Spring 2009 eComm.

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Sunday, September 6, 2009

Skype Labs opens Bay Area office

Workers on San Francisco Bay Bridge during 2009 Labor Day Closure

"Skype Labs is a new R&D center located in the Bay Area focused on next generation technologies for Skype which will be applicable over the next one to five years. The initial areas of work will include security, signaling and call control for audio, video and presence, p2p and collaboration."

No specifics on where in the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area the office is based. Skype has a few technical staff working in San Jose at the Skype Inn office and in San Francisco.

The office will report to Daniel Berg, Skype's CTO. It will be independent of Skype's other development centers in Tallinn, Tartu, Stockholm, and Prague.

Skype's outside dependence on the Joltid p2p engine and Google/On2's video codec may benefit from the lab. The first three of the four research areas (1. Security. 2. Signaling and call control, the layer above p2p. 3. peer-to-peer.) focus on Skype's network fabric and infrastructure. Collaboration research should support new features and increase Skype's reach into new market segments.

Skype is mum on current lab members, the lab director, specific projects, and how much the existing Skype product council will influence project selection. By my estimate, the Bay Area lab has an annual budget around US$2 million.

14 posted job openings: Software Engineers x5, Quality Engineer x5, Technical Product Manager/Product Owner, Agile Project Manager/Scrum Master, Video Codec Developer, Experience Manager, Skype for Mac/Linux.

P.S. The photo is of workers repairing the San Francisco Bay Bridge this weekend.

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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Will a MicrosoftOnNokia deal affect the SkypeOnNokia deal?

Details will come in about six hours on another distribution agreement between Microsoft and Nokia, this time for a mobile edition of Microsoft Office 2010. A previous arrangement preloaded Microsoft Live products, including Skype rival Windows Live Messenger, on Nokia Series 40 and 60 handsets. Meanwhile, Skype hasn't shown up in retail channels preinstalled on some lines of Nokia's smart phones, as announced in February 2009 at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. [UPDATE: Skype and Nokia committed to release by the end of September 2009.] Will Skype be positioned as prominently as Live Messenger? Will mobile Office drive more Messenger use by tight Office-Messenger integration? Skype will sync with (share?) the N97's address book; will Messenger? Will an Office bundle come with Live Messenger? Will the mobile operators who block Skype distribution also object to Live Messenger?

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Friday, July 31, 2009

Skype races to replace Joltid's p2p by June 2010

From eBay's SEC filing of form 10Q: 

Skype licenses peer-to-peer communication technology from Joltid Limited pursuant to a license agreement between the parties.

That's the software that lets your Skype client find and talk with other Skype clients. Joltid Limited is a British Virgin Islands company.

The parties had been discussing a dispute over the license.

Skype's founders want a second payday. They flubbed their $2 billion dollar payout at eBay, missing targets, settling for a nine figure buyout.

In March 2009, Skype Technologies S.A. filed a claim in the English High Court of Justice (No. HC09C00756) against Joltid Limited.

Skype picked the venue.

Following the filing of the claim, Joltid purported to terminate the license agreement between the parties.

"We're ending your license." "You're just purporting to end our license."

In particular, Joltid has alleged that Skype should not possess, use or modify certain software source code

Presumably, someone at Joltid provided that source code to Skype. Their contract (not yet public) may have detailed how that code was to be used. Or not.

and that, by doing so, and by disclosing such code in certain U.S. patent cases pursuant to orders from U.S. courts, Skype has breached the license agreement.

Since this is about facts, discovery should be interesting.

From an earlier SEC filing:

In particular, Joltid has alleged that Skype should not possess, use or modify certain software code (the "Code") and that, by doing so, and by disclosing the Code in certain U.S. patent cases, pursuant to orders from U.S. courts, it has breached the license agreement.

On the basis of, among other things, the parties' mutual dealings since the execution of the licence agreement, Skype is asking the English High Court for declaratory relief, including findings that:

(i) Skype is lawfully accessing, in possession of, using and modifying the Code so that Skype is not in breach of the license agreement with Joltid and accordingly Joltid's notice of breach and subsequent notice of termination are invalid;

(ii) Skype lawfully disclosed the Code in the U.S. patent cases so that Skype is not in breach of the license agreement with Joltid and accordingly Joltid's notice of breach and subsequent notice of termination are invalid; and

(iii) Joltid has certain indemnity obligations in relation to the U.S. patent proceedings.

Skype sued first, to finalize Joltiid's claims. Skype is asking the court to rule Skype didn't breach the contract and the contract is still in effect.

So, of course, Joltid sues back...

Joltid has brought a counterclaim alleging that Skype has repudiated the license agreement, infringed Joltid’s copyright and misused confidential information.

If Joltid wins on copyright infringement, Skype users downloaded the software more than 1.5 billion times. Is Joltid the new RIAA? 

On the basis of, among other things, the parties’ mutual dealings since the execution of the license agreement, Skype asked the English High Court for declaratory relief, including findings that Skype is not in breach of the license agreement, that Joltid’s notice of breach and subsequent notice of termination are invalid, and that Joltid has certain indemnity obligations in relation to the U.S. patent proceedings.

"Dear Judge, shut up Joltid."

Trial is currently scheduled for June 2010.

A deadline!

Although Skype is confident of its legal position, as with any litigation, there is the possibility of an adverse result if the matter is not resolved through negotiation.

It's to Skype's advantage to strike a deal with Joltid as soon as possible. Joltid, however, may enjoy a better bargaining position the closer they get to the court date.

Skype has begun to develop alternative software to that licensed through Joltid.

When did this project begin? While the Joltid founders were still running Skype for eBay? Five minutes after the founders left? When Joltid claimed breach?

Skype can improve their bargaining position by replacing the Joltid p2p engine. They could buy the technology from Bluemoon.

This is an opportunity to improve on the original p2p engine. Skype could build a p2p engine that:

  • scales faster and more reliably,
  • crosses more residential and enterprise firewalls,
  • works at low power on wireless networks,
  • survives hostile conditions including blocking,
  • updates status and presence more quickly,
  • recovers more quickly from disruptions in the p2p fabric,
  • efficiently creates creates supernodes and relays.

Skype's new CTO has one year to design, test, and deploy a new p2p engine assuming they started construction in 2009q2 (would eBay have reported it if they'd started sooner?). That's a tight deadline when p2p isn't at the center of your expertise.

However, such software development may not be successful, may result in loss of functionality or customers even if successful, and will in any event be expensive.

No pressure.

If Skype was to lose the right to use the Joltid software as the result of the litigation, and if alternative software was not available, Skype would be severely and adversely affected and the continued operation of Skype’s business as currently conducted would likely not be possible.

Where's that countdown clock? 305 days to go.

See also:

Hat tip to the Skype 5.x chat room.

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Call me at +1-510-316-9773, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Skype sets new performance records, preserves margins in 2009q2

eBay reports $170 million Skype revenue for the quarter, 25% year over year growth. 20% of revenue was from the USA (green line below). Management kept margins stable at 23.6% (the big purple line below).

2009q2 Skype revenue and margin

8.4% of all revenue ($14.3 million) is from marketing services and other revenues. These include licensing Skype's brand for Skype Certified products, certification fees, and Skype Prime fees.

+37.3 million new accounts, 414k daily (the red line below). This brings Skype to 480.5 million cumulative accounts. The adoption rate fell slightly this quarter.

2009q2 Skype revenues and new accounts

25.5 billion Skype-to-Skype minutes served in Q2 (blue line), 3.0 billion Skype-to-PSTN minutes (red line). Is the rate of growth slowing or is it just seasonality?

2009q2 Skype billions of minutes served

This puts Skype's freemium rate at 8.5 (8.5 free minutes for every paid minute). Still within Skype's historical range and very low (lower is better) compared to other services. Some companies have freemium rates around 20-1 or 50-to-1. The curvy line below is Skype's freemium rate over time.

2009q2 Skype freemium rate

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Reminder: eBay 2009q2 Earnings Call Wednesday PM Pacific

Wednesday, 22 July 2009, 2:00 PM Pacific (in your time zone).

Will Skype and PayPal still be growing strong? Has the Great Recession driven value-seeking customers to Skype? How is that affecting Skype's freemium rate? Will eBay disclose new metrics of Skype's performance prior to selling Skype shares?

Join the Skype Journal Investor Forum (Capacity: 150 analysts and investors) for a little backchannel discussion during the call.

eBay follows the NASDAQ

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Monday, July 6, 2009

NYC 311 hypes Skype, barely supports it

Skype 311 - faux logoNew York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced (video Skyping in from City Hall) five technology initiatives last week at the Personal Democracy Forum Conference. In one of the initiatives, The City's 311 non-emergency service gets a Skype account. From the news release: "Through Skype – a software application that enables calls to be made over the Internet – people from around the world will be able to call 311 for free." A little press for Skype, a little co-branding for His Honor.

They've registered the NYC311 account (Skype names must now start with a letter and passwords must be strong). When I called the account with Skype, my call was forwarded to the 311 call center.

nyc311at089Sadly, there's not much substance behind the claim.

  • Nobody will answer if you befriend that account in Skype.
  • Nobody will answer if you chat with that account in Skype. 311 doesn't serve citizens through IM.
  • Nobody will receive files you send through Skype.
  • There aren't any links to Skype on NYC.gov.
  • Because nobody is running a Skype client with the NYC311 account, NYC shows as offline (meaning don't bother calling).  My status

With this NYC311  link, I've just climbed higher up the Site Skypification Maturity Model than the City of New York.  

Here's what I mean.

    Skype Journal Site Skypification Maturity Model

    Level 0: None
    What's Skype?

    Level 1: Static
    Storing Skype names and Skype-linking Phone Numbers

    Storing and linking people’s Skype names is one part. The other is to offer SkypeOut links for PSTN phone numbers.

    Tech: Skype’s “skype:” html protocol to launch Skype from a browser link.

    Level 2: Dynamic
    Integrating Skype Presence

    Is this person available for a call now? You can show a person’s Skype presence in a web page.

    You can also use presence information to inform other site behavior. For example, you might aggregate presence data for a team to create collective presence scores.

    Tech: Polling Skype’s web presence services

    Level 3: Peering
    Syncing Skype Profile, Social Graph, and History Data

    Skype clients are information rich. You can use that data to enrich profiles, enhance your site’s social graph (who knows whom, how, and how they interact), collect communication histories (who talked to whom, when, for how long), and import chat archives.

    You can keep your site's data synced with Skype's by refreshing active connections with your Skype client.

    Tech: Using Skype’s client APIs to log in on behalf of a user. With that access you can both read and write to the client, and trigger conversations. At large scale, you will need to operate a Skype client farm.

    Level 4: Transactional
    Integrating Skype Business/Commerce Services

    Skype offers some access to its payment services. PamFax is an example of this, where customers pay with Skype credits for sent faxes.

    Tech: Skype publishing and DRM client and web service APIs.

Mayor Bloomberg: Skype 311
The nyc311 Skype profile,
without avatar.

Call center services like OnState build in much of that functionality at no extra cost.

Skype looks like an alternate phone number, as far as New York's 311 service is concerned. Old school telephony without any Web 2.0 sophistication, effort, or benefits.

Skypeland hasn't noticed. "Over the past four days we’ve spent about $1 in total for call forwarding, including the cost incurred for multiple test calls" said a DoITT spokesperson. That's about 15 minutes of calls per day. Including my eleven and a half minutes getting referred to DoITT for questions.  

311 is an amazing step forward in eGovernment. 18 million calls come in each year (and growing) and caller satisfaction rates are high. 311 resolves 4 out of 5 calls without a transfer. They make it easier for citizens to put their city government to work on problems large and small.

I'm an émigré from New York, formerly of the 50th Street Station neighborhood, now gentrified beyond recognition. I'm always pleased to see the City breathe in new ideas and chew on them. Let's check in a year from now and see if skype:nyc311 earns traction.

See also:

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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Weekly reading

Using Skype

Using Skype for Pain Management and Treatment of Chronic Pain. A hands-off therapy works just fine via Skype webcam. Alternative Health Journal.

50 Awesome Ways to Use Skype in the Classroom. It's an awesome list by/for teachers. Teaching Degree.org blog.

Soldiers head to war, Skype their mothers. "I'll Skype as much as I can. But Mom would like me to call every day, all day long, Skype every day, all day long. It doesn't exactly work that way," joked SPC Forney. Capital News 9, Albany, New York.

The World Mind Network advocates Skyping to improve the world. One conversation at a time.

Paris rolls out free Wi-Fi hotspots. The better to Skype with coffee. Click here to find the free hot spots in Paris.

Too Much Information.

"Skype or not to Skype, that is the question. But answering it invokes a larger conundrum: how to perform triage on the communication technologies that seem to multiply like Tribbles — instant messaging, texting, cellphones, softphones, iChat, Facebook, MySpace, Twitter; how to distinguish among those that will truly enhance intimacy, those that result in T.M.I. and those that, though pitching greater connectedness, in fact further disconnect us from the people we love." New York Times Magazine.

Our community

startingacabalCall for Papers: Digital ID World, September 2009, Las Vegas.

My rambunctious Call for Speakers at the Emerging Communications Amsterdam to be bold and visionary. 

Congratulations to Ken Camp, communications community leader extraordinaire and a heckofa nice guy, for joining the eComm team.

Charge for online news like SkypeOut does for calls: simple, prepaid, microcharges, no risk. So says James Fallows to Atlantic Monthly.

VoSKY PBX-Skype gateways are certified for Mitel PBX switches. Skype trunking to cut costs. This increases VoSKY's distribution.

Live Web, Real Time . . . Call It What You Will, It’s Gonna Take A While To Get It. Mary Hodder calls for better discovery and effective filters in live search. Mary's one of the early social media thought leaders and a pioneer in real time search.

Jajah connected its 1,000,000,000th call. Billionth. Jajah powers the voice parts of services like Yahoo! Voice, eHarmony, Jangl, Plaxo, Joyent, Callwave, Bitwine, iotum and Chumby. Just think: Skype walked away from this business two years' ago.

The Nokia N97 showed up in US stores last week. Did you find Skype preinstalled? Anyone? Anyone? Not due until Q3, but we can hope.

Skype seems to be running OK in Iran, assuming you can get online.

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Call me at +1-510-455-4384, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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Monday, June 22, 2009

Roundup – Skype news

Yugma logo - on whiteYugma desktop sharing still hosts multiparty Skype meetings. New CEO tells TMC's Patrick Bernard this Skype partner is restarting after layoffs and generally winding down the company. From happier times, Skype Journal wrote up: Yugma Skype Edition: Cross Platform Desktop Sharing, Yugma Skype Edition Version 3: Fluid Collaboration, Yugma Skype Becomes Skype Certified. Yugma may avoid Convenos' dismal fate. Skype offered its own 1-to-1 desktop sharing this year, throwing independent developers under the bus to pursue WebEx market.

sangoma logoPrettyMay partners with Sangoma, one of Skype's oldest independent software developers, announced Sangoma, a VoIP hardware manufacturer, will sell their Skype PBX Gateway running PrettyMay Skype trunking software. Excellent distribution for PrettyMay, new markets and 4/5 stars for saving money. Sangoma can now compete more directly with VoSKY's Skype trunking systems, some of which distributed partnership with Skype.

truphone logoTruphone beats Skype to push notifications on the iPhone. Martin Bryant says the push service on iPhone 3.0 software lets people call you via truphone even if you're using another app. "If someone calls your Truphone number and you’re not using the app they’re prompted to leave a voicemail message. A notification is then pushed to your iPhone inviting you to listen to the recording."

number garage logoNumberGarage does for phone numbers what domain hosts do for domains. "NumberGarage™ empowers people to manage their phone numbers, with or without phone service, all from the NumberGarage™ Web site." Park and forward phone numbers, just like at GoDaddy.

1 millionGoogle reserves a million phone numbers from Level 3. Probably for Google Voice customers. Is that a weekend supply, like Apple iPhone 3G S sales?

TiVo logo - 2dCourts uphold TiVo patents on playing, pausing, rewinding streaming video. Do TiVo patents apply to voicemail/videomail too? Many mobile phones now offer some TiVo-like features for voice and video messaging.

skype logo - blue on whiteSkype cuts SkypeOut rates to Turkey mobiles and landlines. Turkey's landline prices are falling toward Skype's world rate of about €1 per hour. Meanwhile telcos in other countries raised rates a little: Albania – Mobile, Benin, Comoros and Mayotte, El Salvador – Mobile, Malawi and Malawi – Mobile, Swaziland, Togo, Wallis and Futuna.

eComm Conference & Awards logoeComm, The Emerging Communications Conference 2009b (Amsterdam), issued a Call For Speakers. It's a boring read, so they really need your creative, mind-blowing, insightful, world changing, quintessentially European, future bending proposals.

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Friday, May 15, 2009

eBay puts distance between Skype and Markets

You knew it was coming. Now eBay is weaning its markets sites from Skype influence. No longer is Skype among "More eBay Sites."

Skype no longer in the list of sister eBay sites

Meanwhile, eBay forbids Skype links/buttons in listings.

Skype voice and chat buttons in listings are being discontinued

eBay is discontinuing Skype voice and chat buttons in listings as of June 10, 2009 in an effort to remove features with limited buyer and seller usage.

This change does not require any action on your part. We are just notifying you that as of June 10, you will no longer see the Skype voice and chat options when you list new items, they will not be included on the new item page, and they will no longer appear in your existing listings.

We appreciate your continued commitment to good communications with your customers.

Sincerely,
eBay Seller Team

"Features with limited buyer and seller usage"? It's a shame how no executive in eBay markets had ownership of Skype integration. eBay made it awkward and difficult for sellers to try; Skype never had a chance with such passive-aggressive behavior from eBay.

One more nail in "synergy."

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Call me at +1-510-455-4384, Skype me, follow @skypejournal and @Phil Wolff.
Visit our Skype Journal private roundtable, one of the longest running public Skype chats.

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